The Impact of Order Flow on the Foreign Exchange Market: A Copula Approach

2010 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-31
Author(s):  
Yoshihiro Kitamura
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Order Flow ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Copula Approach ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals STATISTICALLY VALIDATED LEAD-LAG NETWORKS AND INVENTORY PREDICTION IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (08) ◽  
pp. 1850019 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAMIEN CHALLET ◽  
RÉMY CHICHEPORTICHE ◽  
MEHDI LALLOUACHE ◽  
SERGE KASSIBRAKIS
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Order Flow ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Flow Prediction ◽  
Retail Investors ◽  
Macroscopic States ◽  
Great Relevance ◽  
Transaction Price

We introduce a method to infer lead-lag networks of agents’ actions in complex systems. These networks open the way to both microscopic and macroscopic states prediction in such systems. We apply this method to trader-resolved data in the foreign exchange market. We show that these networks are remarkably persistent, which explains why and how order flow prediction is possible from trader-resolved data. In addition, if traders’ actions depend on past prices, the evolution of the average price paid by traders may also be predictable. Using random forests, we verify that the predictability of both the sign of order flow and the direction of average transaction price is strong for retail investors at an hourly time scale, which is of great relevance to brokers and order matching engines. Finally, we argue that the existence of trader lead-lag networks explains in a self-referential way why a given trader becomes active, which is in line with the fact that most trading activity has an endogenous origin.

scholarly journals Central bank's communication and markets' reactions: Polish evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Janusz Brzeszczyński ◽  
Jerzy Gajdka ◽  
Tomasz Schabek ◽  
Ali M Kutan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Market Segments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study contributes to the pool of knowledge about the impact of monetary policy communication of central banks on financial instruments' prices and assets' value in emerging markets.Design/methodology/approachEmpirical analysis is executed using the National Bank of Poland (NBP) announcements about its monetary policy covering the data from the broad financial market in its three main segments: stock market, foreign exchange market and bonds market. The reactions are measured relative to the changes in the NBP announcements and also with respect to investors' expectations. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models with dummy variables are used as the main methodological tool.FindingsBonds market and foreign exchange market are the most sensitive market segments, while interest rate and money supply are the most influential types of announcements. The changes of the revealed new macroeconomic figures had more impact on assets' prices movements than the deviations from their expectations. Moreover, greater diversity of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members' opinions on the voted motions, captured in the MPC voting reports, is associated with more cases of statistically significant NBP communication events.Practical implicationsThe findings have direct relevance for fund managers, portfolio analysts, investors and also for financial market regulators.Originality/valueThe results provide novel evidence about how the emerging financial market responds to monetary policy announcements. They help understand the nature of the impact of public information on financial assets' valuation and on movements of their prices, analysed comprehensively in three market segments, in the emerging market environment.

The Impact of Monetary Policy Announcements on the Australian Foreign Exchange Market

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bronwyn McCredie ◽  
Paul Docherty ◽  
Stephen Andrew Easton ◽  
Katherine Uylangco
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
pp. 1892-1906 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Cerrato ◽  
Nicholas Sarantis ◽  
Alex Saunders
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Order Flow ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Customer Order

scholarly journals Brexit and its Impact on the Pound in the Foreign Exchange Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Pilbeam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Soft Or ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper we outline the impact and likely future impact of Brexit on the pound. We argue that Brexit implies a significant depreciation of the pound and the degree of depreciation required is heavily linked to whether there will be a soft or hard Brexit. We find that the pound has had broadly similar depreciations to date against both the dollar and the euro. Brexit has considerably raised UK economic policy uncertainty and this, in turn, has at times led to an significant increase in future implied volatility of the pound. While there is an overall link between the state of the ongoing Brexit negotiations with the European Union and movements in the pound in the foreign exchange market, the link is not especially strong unless the perception that the negotiations are going badly has exceeded 60%.

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