Portfolio optimization with optimal expected utility risk measures

The purpose of this article is to evaluate optimal expected utility risk measures (OEU) in a risk-constrained portfolio optimization context where the expected portfolio return is maximized. We compare the portfolio optimization with OEU constraint to a portfolio selection model using value at risk as constraint. The former is a coherent risk measure for utility functions with constant relative risk aversion and allows individual specifications to the investor’s risk attitude and time preference. In a case study with three indices, we investigate how these theoretical differences influence the performance of the portfolio selection strategies. A copula approach with univariate ARMA-GARCH models is used in a rolling forecast to simulate monthly future returns and calculate the derived measures for the optimization. The results of this study illustrate that both optimization strategies perform considerably better than an equally weighted portfolio and a buy and hold portfolio. Moreover, our results illustrate that portfolio optimization with OEU constraint experiences individualized effects, e.g., less risk-averse investors lose more portfolio value in the financial crises but outperform their more risk-averse counterparts in bull markets.

Sector-by-sector analysis of dependence dynamics between global large-cap companies and infectious diseases: A time-varying copula approach in EBOV and COVID-19 episodes

Infectious diseases and widespread outbreaks influence different sectors of the economy, including the stock market. In this article, we investigate the effect of EBOV and COVID-19 outbreaks on stock market indices. We employ time-varying and constant bivariate copula methods to measure the dependence structure between the infectious disease equity market volatility index (IEMV) and the stock market indices of several sectors. The results show that the financial and communication services sectors have the highest and the lowest negative dependency on IEMV during the Ebola virus (EBOV) pandemic, respectively. However, the health care and energy sectors have the highest and lowest negative dependency on IEMV during the COVID-19 outbreak, respectively. Therefore, the results confirm the heterogeneous time-varying dependency between infectious diseases and the stock market indices. The finding of our study contributes to the ongoing literature on the impact of disease outbreaks, especially the novel coronavirus outbreak on global large-cap companies in the stock market.

Revisiting Gaussian copulas to handle endogenous regressors

Marketing researchers are increasingly taking advantage of the instrumental variable (IV)-free Gaussian copula approach. They use this method to identify and correct endogeneity when estimating regression models with non-experimental data. The Gaussian copula approach’s original presentation and performance demonstration via a series of simulation studies focused primarily on regression models without intercept. However, marketing and other disciplines’ researchers mainly use regression models with intercept. This research expands our knowledge of the Gaussian copula approach to regression models with intercept and to multilevel models. The results of our simulation studies reveal a fundamental bias and concerns about statistical power at smaller sample sizes and when the approach’s primary assumptions are not fully met. This key finding opposes the method’s potential advantages and raises concerns about its appropriate use in prior studies. As a remedy, we derive boundary conditions and guidelines that contribute to the Gaussian copula approach’s proper use. Thereby, this research contributes to ensuring the validity of results and conclusions of empirical research applying the Gaussian copula approach.

Copula Approach to Multivariate Energy Efficiency Analysis

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a method that finds the effectiveness of an existing system using a number of input and output variables. In this study, we obtained energy efficiencies of construction, industrial, power, and transportation sectors in OECD countries for 2011 using DEA. It is possible to achieve the efficiencies in different sectors. However, we aim to find joint energy efficiency scores for all sectors. One of the methods proposed in the literature to obtain joint efficiency is network data envelopment analysis (network DEA). Network DEA treats sectors as sub-processes and obtains system and process efficiencies through optimal weights. Alternatively, we used a novel copula-based approach to achieve common efficiency scores. In this approach, it is possible to demonstrate the dependency structure between the efficiency scores of similar qualities obtained with DEA by copula families. New efficiency scores are obtained with the help of joint probability distribution. Then, we obtained joint efficiency scores through the copula approach using these efficiency scores. Finally, we obtained the joint efficiency scores of the same sectors through network DEA. As a result, we compared network DEA with the copula approach and interpreted the efficiencies of each energy sector and joint efficiencies.