Bayesian prediction of emergency department wait time

Author(s):  
Mani Suleiman ◽  
Haydar Demirhan ◽  
Leanne Boyd ◽  
Federico Girosi ◽  
Vural Aksakalli
CJEM ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (S1) ◽  
pp. S74-S75
Author(s):  
L. Shepherd ◽  
M. Mucciaccio ◽  
K. VanAarsen

Introduction: Patients presenting to the Emergency Department (ED) for the sole purpose of requesting prescriptions are problematic. Problematic for the patient, who may have a long wait to be seen and may leave dissatisfied. Problematic for the ED physician, who is in the business of episodic not comprehensive care and is diligently trying to avoid the misappropriation of medications. The primary objective of this study was to determine the characteristics of patients who present to the ED or Urgent Care Centre (UCC) requesting a prescription, the nature of these requests and the resulting action by the attending physician. The secondary objective was to determine the proportion of medication requests and responses that have potential street value. With this knowledge we may be better positioned to serve these patients and support physician decision-making. Methods: This was a single-centre, retrospective electronic chart review looking at all adult patients with a presenting complaint of medication request who attended a two-site tertiary ED or an Urgent Care Centre (UCC) in London, Ontario between April 1, 2014 and June 30, 2017. Data was tested for normality and analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results: A total of 1923 cases met the inclusion criteria. Cases were removed (n = 421) if it was unclear which prescription was requested or if a non-medication prescription or injection was requested. The patient median (IQR) age was 44 (32-54) with 58% being male and 55% having a family doctor. There were a total of 2261 prescriptions requested by 1502 patients. The top 3 most commonly requested classes of medications were opioids 433/1502 (28.8%), antidepressants/antipsychotics 371/1502 (24.7%) and benzodiazepines 252/1502 (16.8%). The median (IQR) wait time was 73 minutes (35-128). 298/1502 (19.8%) of patients received their requested prescription (opioids 12.7%; antidepressant/antipsychotic 55.3% and benzodiazepines 16.3%). 740/1502 (49.3%) of patients requested a medication that had street value. Of those, 118/740 (15.9%) received the requested medication. Conclusion: There is no “one size fits all” solution for the patient who presents to the ED requesting a prescription. The large number of requests for psychiatric medications suggests a service gap for mental health patients in the community. This data supports the need for comprehensive electronic medication records to guide physicians’ decisions.


Medical Care ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Author(s):  
Abubakar-Sadiq B. Abdulai ◽  
Fahad Mukhtar ◽  
Michael Ehrlich

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e000708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuzeng Shen ◽  
Lin Hui Lee

Triaging of patients at the emergency department (ED) is one of the key steps prior to initiation of doctor consult. To improve the overall wait time to consultation, we have identified the need to reduce the wait time to triage for ED patients. We seek to determine if the implementation of a series of plan, do, study, act (PDSA) cycles would improve the wait time to triage within 1 year. The interventions related to the PDSA cycles include the refining of triage criteria, ‘eyeball’ triage by senior nurses to facilitate direct bedding of patients, formation of a triage nurse clinician role, and a needs analysis of required nursing manpower. The baseline period for this study was from January 2017 to April 2017, with the results following implementation of the respective PDSA cycles sequentially tracked from May 2017 to March 2019. There was an improvement in the wait time to triage from a baseline duration of 18 min to the postimplementation period duration of 13 min, with a 25% decrease in variance from 16 to 12 min. The improvements were sustained. Strategies to further reduce wait time to triage at the ED are discussed. We also highlight the importance of adequate triage manpower, data-driven decision making and continued engagement of stakeholders in enabling positive outcomes from this quality improvement effort.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-97
Author(s):  
Michael Brian Haslam ◽  
Emma S. Jones

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to consider the influence of the Emergency Department (ED) target wait time upon the discharge decision in ED, specifically for patients who have self-harmed. Pressures to discharge patients to avoid breaching the 4-h target wait time, potentially increase the risk of adverse responses from clinicians. For the patient who has self-harmed, such interactions may be experienced as invalidating and may result in adverse outcomes. Design/methodology/approach Secondary data analysis was applied to the retrospective referral data of a Mental Health Liaison Team (MHLT), collected over a period of 11 months from a single hospital in the North of England. In total, 734 episodes of care were referred to the team from ED, where the primary presentation was recorded as self-harm. Findings Over half of patients referred to the MHLT from ED having self-harmed were seen after already breaching the target and the potential for a more restrictive outcome reduced. Of those patients seen within 4 h, the potential for a more restrictive treatment option was increased. Practical implications Recommendations to improve the patient journey for those who have self-harmed include mental health triage and treatment in clinical areas outside of the target. Social implications This study challenges the concept of the target as being realistic and attainable for patients who have self-harmed. Originality/value This exploratory study provides a starting point from which to explore the impact of the target time upon discharge decisions and clinical outcomes specifically for those who have self-harmed.


2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Emilpaolo Manno ◽  
Marco Pesce ◽  
Umberto Stralla ◽  
Federico Festa ◽  
Silvio Geninatti ◽  
...  

Objective: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is a hospital-wide problem that demands a whole-hospital solution. We developed and implemented a fast track model for streaming ED patients with low-acuity illness or injury to specialized care areas (gynecology-obstetrics, orthopedics-trauma, pediatrics, and primary care) staffed by existing specialist resources with access to general ED services. The study aim was to determine whether streaming of ED visits into specialized fast track areas increased operational efficiency and improved patient flow in a mixed adult and pediatric ED without incurring extra costs.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the ED discharge records of patients who were mainstreamed or fast tracked during the 3-year period from 1 January 2010 through 31 December 2012. ED visits were identified according to a five-level triage scheme; performance indicators were compared for: wait time, length of stay, leave before being seen and revisit rates.Results: A reduction in wait time, length of stay, and leave before being seen rate was seen with fast track streaming (p < .01). These improvements were achieved without additional medical and nurse staffing.Conclusions: Specialized fast track streaming helped us meet patients’ care needs and contain costs. Lower-acuity patients were seen quickly by a specialist and safely discharged or admitted to the hospital without diverting resources from patients with high-acuity illness or injury. Involvement of all stakeholders in seeking a sustainable solution to ED crowding as a hospital-wide problem was key to enhancing cooperation between the ED and the hospital units.


2017 ◽  
Vol 139 (2) ◽  
pp. 444e-454e ◽  
Author(s):  
Elham Mahmoudi ◽  
Peter R. Swiatek ◽  
Kevin C. Chung

CHEST Journal ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 148 (4) ◽  
pp. 335A
Author(s):  
Aruna Jahoor ◽  
Thomas Delmas ◽  
Badri Giri ◽  
Lori Murdoch ◽  
Jessica Pruszynski ◽  
...  

CJEM ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 264-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Gray ◽  
Christopher M.B. Fernandes ◽  
Kristine Van Aarsen ◽  
Melanie Columbus

AbstractObjectivesComputerized provider order entry (CPOE) has been established as a method to improve patient safety by avoiding medication errors; however, its effect on emergency department (ED) flow remains undefined. We examined the impact of CPOE implementation on three measures of ED throughput: wait time (WT), length of stay (LOS), and the proportion of patients that left without being seen (LWBS).MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of all ED patients of 18 years and older presenting to London Health Sciences Centre during July and August 2013 and 2014, before and after implementation of a CPOE system. The three primary variables were compared between time periods. Subgroup analyses were also conducted within each Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS) level (1–5) individually, as well as for admitted patients only.ResultsA significant increase in WT of 5 minutes (p=0.036) and LOS of 10 minutes (p=0.001), and an increase in LWBS from 7.2% to 8.1% (p=0.002) was seen after CPOE implementation. Admitted patients’ LOS increased by 63 minutes (p<0.001), the WT of CTAS 3 and 5 patients increased by 6 minutes (p=0.001) and 39 minutes (p=0.005), and LWBS proportion increased significantly for CTAS 3–5 patients, from 24.3% to 42.0% (p<0.001) for CTAS 5 patients specifically.ConclusionsCPOE implementation detrimentally impacted all patient flow throughput measures that we examined. The most striking clinically relevant result was the increase in LOS of 63 minutes for admitted patients. This raises the question as to whether the potential detrimental effects to patient safety of CPOE implementation outweigh its benefits.


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