Water Erosion Monitoring and Prediction in Response to the Effects of Climate Change Using RUSLE and SWAT Equations: Case of R’Dom Watershed in Morocco

Soil erosion is an increasingly issue worldwide, due to several factors including climate variations and humans’ activities, especially in Mediterranean ecosystems. Therefore, the aim of this paper is: (i) to quantify and to predict soil erosion rate for the baseline period (2000–2013) and a future period (2014–2027), using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in the R’Dom watershed in Morocco, based on the opportunities of Remote Sensing (RS) techniques and Geographical Information System (GIS) geospatial tools. (ii) we based on classical statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for rainfall prediction. Due to the lack of field data, the model results are validated by expert knowledge. As a result of this study, it is found that both agricultural lands and bare lands are most affected by soil erosion. Moreover, it is showed that soil erosion in the watershed was dominated by very low and low erosion. Although the area of very low erosion and low erosion continued to decrease. Hence, we hereby envisage that our contribution will provide a more complete understanding of the soil degradation in this study area and the results of this research could be a crucial reference in soil erosion studies and also may serve as a valuable guidance for watershed management strategies.

The Impact of Study-at-Home During the COVID-19 Pandemic on Myopia Progression in Chinese Children

Background: To assess the impact of study-at-home during the COVID-19 pandemic on myopia development in Chinese schoolchildren.Methods: This historical cohort involved two groups with a total of 154 children. The exposed group was formed from 77 children aged 8 to 10 years who studied at home in the 7-month period during the COVID-19 pandemic (follow-up period: January – August 2020) and did not study at home in the 7-month period before the COVID-19 outbreak (baseline period: July 2019 – January 2020). Seventy-seven children who did not undergo study-at-home (baseline period: 7 months in 2015, follow-up period: 7 months in 2016) were included in the control group. Cycloplegic refraction, axial length and uncorrected visual acuity were measured 3 times. The questionnaire mainly focused on collecting visual habits.Results: Myopia progression was similar between the two groups in the baseline period. However, in the follow-up period the exposed group had a greater change in refraction toward myopia (−0.83 ± 0.56 D) than the control group (−0.28 ± 0.54 D; p < 0.001). In addition, the exposed group exhibited a significantly greater change in refraction toward myopia in the follow-up period (−0.83 ± 0.56 D) than in the baseline period (−0.33 ± 0.46 D; p < 0.001). Difference-in-difference analysis indicated that study-at-home accelerated the change in refraction toward myopia (t = −0.567; p < 0.001).Conclusions: During the COVID-19 pandemic study-at-home accelerated the change of refraction toward myopia in children.

Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use/Cover Change on Regional Hydrological Processes: Case of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) have been widely recognized as the main driving forces that can affect regional hydrological processes, and quantitative assessment of their impacts is of great importance for the sustainable development of regional ecosystems, land use planning and water resources management. This study investigates the impacts of climate change and LUCC on variables such as streamflow (SF), soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) by using Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model under different scenarios during 1979–2018. The results show that the simulation performances were overall good, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) greater than 0.80 for the monthly-scale SF calibration and validation. According to the results of trend and change point tests of meteorological series, the baseline period (1979–1997) and the interference period (1998–2018) were determined. Interestingly, other land use types were basically converted to urban land, leading to a rapid urbanization in the GBA. Compared with the SF values of the eight estuaries of the Pearl River Basin in the baseline period, both climate change and LUCC has led to the decrease in the SF values in the interference period, and the combined effect of climate change and LUCC was slightly greater than their individual effect. Overall, climate change and LUCC both have important impacts on regional hydrological processes in the GBA.

Flood hazard mapping and analysis under climate change using hydro-dynamic model and RCPs emission scenario in Woybo River catchment of Ethiopia

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to prepare flood hazard map and show the extent of flood hazard under climate change scenarios in Woybo River catchment. The hydraulic model, Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) was used to simulate the floods under future climate scenarios. The impact of climate changes on severity of flooding was evaluated for the mid-term (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) with relative to a baseline period (1971–2000). Design/methodology/approach Future climate scenarios were constructed from the bias corrected outputs of five regional climate models and the inflow hydrographs for 10, 25, 50 and 100 years design floods were derived from the flow which generated from HEC-hydrological modeling system; that was an input for the HEC-RAS model to generate the flood hazard maps in the catchment. Findings The results of this research show that 25.68% of the study area can be classified as very high hazard class while 28.56% of the area is under high hazard. It was also found that 20.20% is under moderate hazard and about 25.56% is under low hazard class in future under high emission scenario. The projected area to be flooded in far future relative to the baseline period is 66.3 ha of land which accounts for 62.82% from the total area. This study suggested that agricultural/crop land located at the right side of the Woybo River near the flood plain would be affected more with the 25, 50 and 100 years design floods. Originality/value Multiple climate models were assessed properly and the ensemble mean was used to prepare flood hazard map using HEC-RAS modeling.

Can Forest-Related Adaptive Capacity Reduce Landslide Risk Attributable to Climate Change?—Case of Republic of Korea

Recent cases of climate disasters such as the European floods in 2021 and Korea’s longest rainy season in 2020 strongly imply the importance of adaptation to climate change. In this study, we performed a numerical prediction on how much climate change adaptation factors related to forest policy can reduce climate disasters such as landslides. We focused on the landslide in Korea and applied a machine learning model reflecting adaptive indicators in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The changes in the landslide probability were estimated using the Random Forest model, which estimated the landslide probability in the baseline period (2011) with excellent performance, and the spatial adaptation indicators used in this study contributed approximately 20%. The future landslide risk predicting indicated a significant increase in the Very High and High risk areas, especially in 2092. The application of the forest-related adaptation indices based on the policy scenario showed that in 2050, the effect was not pronounced, but in 2092, when the risk of landslides was much higher, the effect increased significantly. In particular, the effect was remarkable in the Seoul metropolitan and southern coastal regions. Even with the same adaptive capacity, it exerted a larger effect on the enhanced disasters. Our results suggest that the enhancement of adaptive capacity can reduce landslide risk up to 70% in a Very High risk region. In conclusion, it implies an importance to respond to the intensifying climate disasters, and abundant follow-up studies are expected to appear in the future.

Effects of a National Quality Improvement Collaborative on ABCDEF Bundle Implementation

Background The ABCDEF bundle (Assess, prevent, and manage pain and Delirium; Both spontaneous awakening and breathing trials; Choice of analgesia/sedation; Early mobility; and Family engagement) improves intensive care unit outcomes, but adoption into practice is poor. Objective To assess the effect of quality improvement collaborative participation on ABCDEF bundle performance. Methods This interrupted time series analysis included 20 months of bundle performance data from 15 226 adults admitted to 68 US intensive care units. Segmented regression models were used to quantify complete and individual bundle element performance changes over time and compare performance patterns before (6 months) and after (14 months) collaborative initiation. Results Complete bundle performance rates were very low at baseline (<4%) but increased to 12% by the end. Complete bundle performance increased by 2 percentage points (SE, 0.9; P = .06) immediately after collaborative initiation. Each subsequent month was associated with an increase of 0.6 percentage points (SE, 0.2; P = .04). Performance rates increased significantly immediately after initiation for pain assessment (7.6% [SE, 2.0%], P = .002), sedation assessment (9.1% [SE, 3.7%], P = .02), and family engagement (7.8% [SE, 3%], P = .02) and then increased monthly at the same speed as the trend in the baseline period. Performance rates were lowest for spontaneous awakening/breathing trials and early mobility. Conclusions Quality improvement collaborative participation resulted in clinically meaningful, but small and variable, improvements in bundle performance. Opportunities remain to improve adoption of sedation, mechanical ventilation, and early mobility practices.

Assessing the Hydrological Effect of Climate Change on Water Balance of a River Basin in Northern Greece

In this work, the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Olynthios River Basin in Northern Greece, were assessed. For this purpose, the climate change scenarios SRES and RCPs were used (SRES A1B, Α2 and RCP4.5, 8.5) - which were taken from two climate models, CGCM3.1/T63 and CanESM2, respectively - for two time periods (2031-2050 and 2081-2100) and for the baseline period (1981-2000). The downscaling was performed using the weather generator ClimGen. The monthly water balance of the Olynthios River Basin was estimated with the use of a conceptual water balance model. Results showed that the annual runoff of the river basin of Olynthios will decrease in response to climate change under all scenarios for both time periods. The results highlight the necessity for adequate adaptation strategies which could improve agricultural water management and reduce the impacts of climate change on agriculture.

Perioperative Care in Colorectal Cancer Surgery before a Structured Implementation Program of the ERAS Protocol in a Regional Network. The Piemonte EASY-NET Project

Background: In 2019, the Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) protocol for colorectal cancer surgery was adopted by a minority of hospitals in Piemonte (4.3 million inhabitants, north-west Italy). The present analysis aims to compare the level of application of the ERAS protocol between hospitals already adopting it (ERAS, N = 3) with the rest of the regional hospitals (non-ERAS, N = 28) and to identify possible obstacles to its application. Methods: All patients surgically treated for a newly diagnosed colorectal cancer during September–November 2019, representing the baseline period of a randomized controlled trial with a cluster stepped-wedge design, were included. Indicators of compliance to the ERAS items were calculated overall and for groups of items (preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative) and analyzed with a multilevel linear model adjusting for patients’ characteristics, considering centers as random effects. Results: Overall, the average level of compliance to the ERAS protocol was 56% among non-ERAS centers (N = 364 patients) and 80% among ERAS ones (N = 79), with a difference of 24% (95% CI: −41.4; −7.3, p = 0.0053). For both groups of centers, the lowest level of compliance was recorded for postoperative items (42% and 66%). Sex, age, presence of comorbidities and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score were not associated with a different probability of compliance to the ERAS protocol. Conclusions: Several items of the ERAS protocol were poorly adopted in colorectal surgery units in the Piemonte region in the baseline period of the ERAS Colon-Rectum Piemonte study and in the ERAS group. No relevant obstacles to the ERAS protocol implementation were identified at patient level.

Impact of climate change on landslides in Slovenia in the mid-21st century

Slovenia is affected by extreme and intense rainfall that triggers numerous landslides every year, resulting in significant human impact and damage to infrastructure. Previous studies on landslides have shown how rainfall patterns can influence landslide occurrence, while in this paper, we present one of the first study in Slovenia to examine the impact of climate change on landslides in the mid-21st century. To do this, we used the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario and future climatology simulated by six climate models that differed from each other as much as possible while representing measured values of past climate variables as closely as possible. Based on baseline period (1981-2010) we showed the number of days with exceedance of rainfall thresholds and the area where landslides may occur more frequently in the projection period (2041-2070). We found that extreme rainfall events are likely to occur more frequent in the future, which may lead to a higher frequency of landslides in some areas.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Surgical Wait Times for Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery in Ontario

Purpose: The aim of this study was to assess the impact of COVID-19 on surgical wait times for Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery (PRS) in Ontario, Canada. Methods: Ontario's wait time data has fourteen reporting categories for PRS. For each category, the mean wait time for consultation and for surgery were reported. Each category was given a priority ranging from 1 to 4. Two periods, three-month and six-month, were selected and compared to the same calendar months of the previous year. Wait times, surgical volume and percent change to the provincial wait time target were reported and compared to the baseline data. Results: This study reviewed 9563 consults and 15,000 operative cases. There was a 50% reduction in the volume of surgical consults during the study period compared to the baseline period (P = 0.004). The reduction ranged from 46% to 75% based on the reporting category. The volume of surgical cases decreased by 43% during the study period compared to the baseline period (P = 0.005). A statistically significant increase in the mean wait times for surgery was observed, involving priorities 2 to 4 (overall mean = 32 days, P ≤ 0.01). There was a 15% decrease in the percentage of surgeries meeting the provincial target times (P < 0.0001). Conclusion: COVID-19 has caused a significant reduction in the volume of cases performed in the majority of PRS categories with an overall increase in the wait times for consultation and for surgery. Recovery following COVID-19 will require strategies to address the growing volume of cases and wait times for surgery across all PRS categories.