Does planned retreat matter? Investigating land use change under the impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 703-733 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Song ◽  
Xinyu Fu ◽  
Ruoniu Wang ◽  
Zhong-Ren Peng ◽  
Zongni Gu
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soely Luyando-Flusa ◽  
◽  
Christopher J. Hein ◽  
Leslie Reeder-Myers ◽  
Torben Rick ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 757-774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yus Budiyono ◽  
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts ◽  
Daniel Tollenaar ◽  
Philip J. Ward

Abstract. Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by −46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM–RCP–sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.


2020 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Phuong Ha Tran

Currently, in the context of climate change, droughts, salinity intrusion, sea level rise etc. and through the reality, it can be seen that the structure of land use (land use) in Tra Vinh province has been impacted quite strongly. The salinity intrusion, flooding and drought have increased in recent years, requiring appropriately comprehensive and proactive solutions. First and foremost, it’s a solution to change the structure of land use in combination with the change of seed structure and crop production structure to ensure efficient and sustainable development. For an overview of these changes as well as predictions for later years, the assessment of the impact of sea level rise on the average scenario (2030) affects the structure of land use by 2030 compared to the land use data in Tra Vinh in 2016, the results show that the areas flooded under the scenario of climate change and sea level rise RCP6.0  in 2030 are at risk of land use change.[TT1]  The land area has the risk of land use change in the whole province is nearly 24,235 ha. In which the most affected land area is specializing in rice land occupies 71%, area aquaculture (11%), paddy land remaining (8%), especially 4% of residential land in rural areas will be affected, this will directly affect the lives of people in the shallow village. [TT1]Need to revise


2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. B. Leonard ◽  
R. W. Sutherland ◽  
R. F. Baldwin ◽  
D. A. Fedak ◽  
R. G. Carnes ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 551-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brenda B. Lin ◽  
Yong Bing Khoo ◽  
Matthew Inman ◽  
Chi-Hsiang Wang ◽  
Sorada Tapsuwan ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frances E. Dunn ◽  
Philip S. J. Minderhoud

<p>As one of the largest deltas in the world, the Mekong delta is home to over 17 million people and supports internationally important agriculture. Recently deposited sediment compacts and causes subsidence in deltas, so they require regular sediment input to maintain elevation relative to sea level. These processes are complicated by human activities, which prevent sediment deposition indirectly through reducing fluvial sediment supply and directly through the construction of flood defence infrastructure on deltas, impeding floods which deliver sediment to the land. Additionally, anthropogenic activities increase the rate of subsidence through the extraction of groundwater and other land-use practices.</p><p>This research shows the potential for fluvial sediment delivery to compensate for sea-level rise and subsidence in the Mekong delta over the 21st century. We use detailed elevation data and subsidence scenarios in combination with regional sea-level rise and fluvial sediment flux projections to quantify the potential for maintaining elevation relative to sea level in the Mekong delta. We present four examples of localised sedimentation scenarios in specific areas, for which we quantified the potential effectiveness of fluvial sediment deposition for offsetting relative sea-level rise. The presented sediment-based adaptation strategies are complicated by existing land use, therefore a change in water and sediment management is required to effectively use natural resources and employ these adaptation methods. The presented approach could be an exemplar to assess sedimentation strategy feasibility in other delta systems worldwide that are under threat from sea-level rise.</p>


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