Novelty Detection in Time Series Using Self-Organizing Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Evaluation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Aguayo ◽  
Guilherme A. Barreto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Novelty Detection ◽  
Self Organizing

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Self Organizing Neural Networks and a Fuzzy Fractal Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8295
Author(s):  
Patricia Melin ◽  
Oscar Castillo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Virus Propagation ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Fractal Approach ◽  
The Times ◽  
Self Organizing

In this article, the evolution in both space and time of the COVID-19 pandemic is studied by utilizing a neural network with a self-organizing nature for the spatial analysis of data, and a fuzzy fractal method for capturing the temporal trends of the time series of the countries considered in this study. Self-organizing neural networks possess the capability to cluster countries in the space domain based on their similar characteristics, with respect to their COVID-19 cases. This form enables the finding of countries that have a similar behavior, and thus can benefit from utilizing the same methods in fighting the virus propagation. In order to validate the approach, publicly available datasets of COVID-19 cases worldwide have been used. In addition, a fuzzy fractal approach is utilized for the temporal analysis of the time series of the countries considered in this study. Then, a hybrid combination, using fuzzy rules, of both the self-organizing maps and the fuzzy fractal approach is proposed for efficient coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) forecasting of the countries. Relevant conclusions have emerged from this study that may be of great help in putting forward the best possible strategies in fighting the virus pandemic. Many of the existing works concerned with COVID-19 look at the problem mostly from a temporal viewpoint, which is of course relevant, but we strongly believe that the combination of both aspects of the problem is relevant for improving the forecasting ability. The main idea of this article is combining neural networks with a self-organizing nature for clustering countries with a high similarity and the fuzzy fractal approach for being able to forecast the times series. Simulation results of COVID-19 data from countries around the world show the ability of the proposed approach to first spatially cluster the countries and then to accurately predict in time the COVID-19 data for different countries with a fuzzy fractal approach.

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Spread of the Coronavirus Pandemic using Self Organizing Neural Networks and a Fuzzy Fractal Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia Melin ◽  
Oscar Castillo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Virus Propagation ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Fractal Approach ◽  
Times Series ◽  
The Times ◽  
Self Organizing

In this article, the evolution in space and in time of the coronavirus pandemic is studied by utilizing a neural network with a self-organizing nature for the spatial analysis of data, and a fuzzy fractal method for capturing the temporal trends of the time series of the countries. Self-organizing neural networks possess the capability for clustering countries in the space domain based on their similar characteristics with respect to their coronavirus cases. In this form enabling finding the countries that are having similar behavior and thus can benefit from utilizing the same methods in fighting the virus propagation. To validate the approach, publicly available datasets of coronavirus cases worldwide have been used. In addition, a fuzzy fractal approach is utilized for the temporal analysis of time series of the countries. Then, a hybrid combination of both the self-organizing maps and the fuzzy fractal approach is proposed for efficient COVID-19 forecasting of the countries. Relevant conclusions have emerged from this study, that may be of great help in putting forward the best possible strategies in fighting the virus pandemic. A lot of the existing works concerned with the Coronavirus have look at the problem mostly from the temporal viewpoint that is of course relevant, but we strongly believe that the combination of both aspects of the problem is relevant to improve the forecasting ability. The most relevant contribution of this article is the proposal of combining neural networks with a self-organizing nature for clustering countries with high similarity and the fuzzy fractal approach for being able to forecast the times series and help in planning control actions for the Coronavirus pandemic.

A Self-Organizing Neural Network to Approach Novelty Detection

2012 ◽  
pp. 262-282
Author(s):  
Marcelo Keese Albertini ◽  
Rodrigo Fernandes de Mello
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Novelty Detection ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
New Concepts ◽  
Normal Behavior ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
Self Organizing

Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence which aims at developing techniques to automatically transfer human knowledge into analytical models. Recently, those techniques have been applied to time series with unknown dynamics and fluctuations in the established behavior patterns, such as humancomputer interaction, inspection robotics and climate change. In order to detect novelties in those time series, techniques are required to learn and update knowledge structures, adapting themselves to data tendencies. The learning and updating process should integrate and accommodate novelty events into the normal behavior model, possibly incurring the revaluation of long-term memories. This sort of application has been addressed by the proposal of incremental techniques based on unsupervised neural networks and regression techniques. Such proposals have introduced two new concepts in time-series novelty detection. The first defines the temporal novelty, which indicates the occurrence of unexpected series of events. The second measures how novel a single event is, based on the historical knowledge. However, current studies do not fully consider both concepts of detecting and quantifying temporal novelties. This motivated the proposal of the self-organizing novelty detection neural network architecture (SONDE) which incrementally learns patterns in order to represent unknown dynamics and fluctuation of established behavior. The knowledge accumulated by SONDE is employed to estimate Markov chains which model causal relationships. This architecture is applied to detect and measure temporal and nontemporal novelties. The evaluation of the proposed technique is carried out through simulations and experiments, which have presented promising results.

Wavelet-Based Denoising for Traffic Volume Time Series Forecasting with Self-Organizing Neural Networks

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 530-545 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Boto-Giralda ◽  
Francisco J. Díaz-Pernas ◽  
David González-Ortega ◽  
José F. Díez-Higuera ◽  
Míriam Antón-Rodríguez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Self Organizing

A Self-Organizing Neural Network to Approach Novelty Detection

2010 ◽  
pp. 49-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Keese Albertini ◽  
Rodrigo Fernandes de Mello
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Novelty Detection ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
New Concepts ◽  
Normal Behavior ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
Self Organizing

Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence which aims at developing techniques to automatically transfer human knowledge into analytical models. Recently, those techniques have been applied to time series with unknown dynamics and fluctuations in the established behavior patterns, such as humancomputer interaction, inspection robotics and climate change. In order to detect novelties in those time series, techniques are required to learn and update knowledge structures, adapting themselves to data tendencies. The learning and updating process should integrate and accommodate novelty events into the normal behavior model, possibly incurring the revaluation of long-term memories. This sort of application has been addressed by the proposal of incremental techniques based on unsupervised neural networks and regression techniques. Such proposals have introduced two new concepts in time-series novelty detection. The first defines the temporal novelty, which indicates the occurrence of unexpected series of events. The second measures how novel a single event is, based on the historical knowledge. However, current studies do not fully consider both concepts of detecting and quantifying temporal novelties. This motivated the proposal of the self-organizing novelty detection neural network architecture (SONDE) which incrementally learns patterns in order to represent unknown dynamics and fluctuation of established behavior. The knowledge accumulated by SONDE is employed to estimate Markov chains which model causal relationships. This architecture is applied to detect and measure temporal and nontemporal novelties. The evaluation of the proposed technique is carried out through simulations and experiments, which have presented promising results.

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