scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Self Organizing Neural Networks and a Fuzzy Fractal Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8295
Author(s):  
Patricia Melin ◽  
Oscar Castillo

In this article, the evolution in both space and time of the COVID-19 pandemic is studied by utilizing a neural network with a self-organizing nature for the spatial analysis of data, and a fuzzy fractal method for capturing the temporal trends of the time series of the countries considered in this study. Self-organizing neural networks possess the capability to cluster countries in the space domain based on their similar characteristics, with respect to their COVID-19 cases. This form enables the finding of countries that have a similar behavior, and thus can benefit from utilizing the same methods in fighting the virus propagation. In order to validate the approach, publicly available datasets of COVID-19 cases worldwide have been used. In addition, a fuzzy fractal approach is utilized for the temporal analysis of the time series of the countries considered in this study. Then, a hybrid combination, using fuzzy rules, of both the self-organizing maps and the fuzzy fractal approach is proposed for efficient coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) forecasting of the countries. Relevant conclusions have emerged from this study that may be of great help in putting forward the best possible strategies in fighting the virus pandemic. Many of the existing works concerned with COVID-19 look at the problem mostly from a temporal viewpoint, which is of course relevant, but we strongly believe that the combination of both aspects of the problem is relevant for improving the forecasting ability. The main idea of this article is combining neural networks with a self-organizing nature for clustering countries with a high similarity and the fuzzy fractal approach for being able to forecast the times series. Simulation results of COVID-19 data from countries around the world show the ability of the proposed approach to first spatially cluster the countries and then to accurately predict in time the COVID-19 data for different countries with a fuzzy fractal approach.

Author(s):  
Patricia Melin ◽  
Oscar Castillo

In this article, the evolution in space and in time of the coronavirus pandemic is studied by utilizing a neural network with a self-organizing nature for the spatial analysis of data, and a fuzzy fractal method for capturing the temporal trends of the time series of the countries. Self-organizing neural networks possess the capability for clustering countries in the space domain based on their similar characteristics with respect to their coronavirus cases. In this form enabling finding the countries that are having similar behavior and thus can benefit from utilizing the same methods in fighting the virus propagation. To validate the approach, publicly available datasets of coronavirus cases worldwide have been used. In addition, a fuzzy fractal approach is utilized for the temporal analysis of time series of the countries. Then, a hybrid combination of both the self-organizing maps and the fuzzy fractal approach is proposed for efficient COVID-19 forecasting of the countries. Relevant conclusions have emerged from this study, that may be of great help in putting forward the best possible strategies in fighting the virus pandemic. A lot of the existing works concerned with the Coronavirus have look at the problem mostly from the temporal viewpoint that is of course relevant, but we strongly believe that the combination of both aspects of the problem is relevant to improve the forecasting ability. The most relevant contribution of this article is the proposal of combining neural networks with a self-organizing nature for clustering countries with high similarity and the fuzzy fractal approach for being able to forecast the times series and help in planning control actions for the Coronavirus pandemic.


Author(s):  
Macario O. Cordel ◽  
Arnulfo P. Azcarraga

Several time-critical problems relying on large amount of data, e.g., business trends, disaster response and disease outbreak, require cost-effective, timely and accurate data summary and visualization, in order to come up with an efficient and effective decision. Self-organizing map (SOM) is a very effective data clustering and visualization tool as it provides intuitive display of data in lower-dimensional space. However, with [Formula: see text] complexity, SOM becomes inappropriate for large datasets. In this paper, we propose a force-directed visualization method that emulates SOMs capability to display the data clusters with [Formula: see text] complexity. The main idea is to perform a force-directed fine-tuning of the 2D representation of data. To demonstrate the efficiency and the vast potential of the proposed method as a fast visualization tool, the methodology is used to do a 2D-projection of the MNIST handwritten digits dataset.


2016 ◽  
pp. 1306-1332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Lopez-Iturriaga ◽  
Iván Pastor-Sanz

This chapter combines two methods based on neural networks (trait recognition and self-organizing maps) to develop a model of bankruptcy prediction. The authors apply the method to the Spanish savings banks, most of them rescued by the Government between 2008 and 2013 in a costly massive process. First, the authors detect the combinations of variables (performance, asset structure, and capitalization) that best describe the profile of the rescued savings banks. Then, the authors use these combinations on a yearly basis to generate bi-dimensional maps in which banks are placed according to their risk and similarities. This method provides a visual tool that can improve the oversight of policy makers on the whole financial system and enable time pertinent answers to some threatens to the country financial stability. The maps are useful means to detect and understand how the financial threats emerge over time too.


Author(s):  
Aline Regina Walkoff ◽  
Sandra Regina Masetto Antunes ◽  
Maria Elena Payret Arrúa ◽  
Lívia Ramazzoti Chanan Silva ◽  
Dionisio Borsato ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amin Sadeqi ◽  
Hossein Tabari ◽  
Yagob Dinpashoh

Abstract Climate change affects the energy demand in different sectors of the society. To investigate this possible impact, in this research, temporal trends and change points in heating degree-days (HDD), cooling degree-days (CDD), and their simultaneous combination (HDD+CDD) were analysed for a 60-year period (1960-2019) in Iran. The results show that less than 20% of the study stations had significant trends (either upward or downward) in HDD time series, while more than 80% of the stations had significant increasing trends in CDD and HDD+CDD time series. Abrupt changes in HDD time series mostly occurred in the early 1980s, but those in CDD time series were mostly observed in the 1990s. The cooling energy demand in Iran has dramatically increased as CDD values have raised up from 690 ºC-days to 1010 ºC-days in the last 60 years. HDD, however, almost remained constant in the same period. The results suggest that if global warming continues with the current pace, cooling energy demand in the residential sector will considerably increase in the future, calling for a change in residential energy consumption policies.


IEEE Access ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 35915-35925 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruliang Xiao ◽  
Runxi Cui ◽  
Mingwei Lin ◽  
Lifei Chen ◽  
Youcong Ni ◽  
...  

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