The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions

Author(s):  
Zahra Fahimirad ◽  
Nazanin Shahkarami
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahra Fahimirad ◽  
Nazanin Shahkarami

Abstract Climate change has made many alterations to the Earth's climate, including hydro-climatic extreme events. For investigating the effect of climate change on hydro-meteorological droughts in the Kamal-Saleh dam basin in Markazi province, Iran, a new and comprehensive index was developed for accurate estimation of drought in a more realistic condition, for future climate conditions. This aggregate drought index (ADI) represents the main characteristics of meteorological and hydrological drought. Temperature and precipitation projections for future climates were simulated by five CMIP5 models and downscaled over the study area for the periods of 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1976-2005). By fitting five univariate distribution functions on drought severity and duration, proper marginal distributions were selected. The joint distribution of drought severity and duration was chosen from five types of copula functions. The results revealed that severe droughts are expected to occur frequently in a shorter period in the future.


Author(s):  
N. Maidanovych ◽  

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.


2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wu Weiwei ◽  
Xu Haigen ◽  
Wu Jun ◽  
Cao Mingchang

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Devin Castendyk ◽  
◽  
Maciej K. Obryk ◽  
Sasha Z. Leidman ◽  
Michael Gooseff ◽  
...  

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