Climate change in the Western Balkans and EU Green Deal: status, mitigation and challenges

Background The European Commission (EC), based on the European Green Deal (2019) and the Recovery plan for Europe (2021), envisages investing 30% of the budget in climate-related programs, projects, and initiatives, which clearly shows Europe's commitment to becoming the first climate-neutral region by 2050. Activities are also planned for countries that are not members of the European Union (EU), which require complex changes in the field of legislation, strategic planning, implementation, and monitoring. To successfully plan short-term and long-term activities on these grounds, it is necessary to have a realistic picture of the state of climate change in each country—as they spill over into the entire region of Europe. The main objective of this paper is to answer the following questions: (i) is climate change observed in Western Balkans? (ii) how are certain sectors vulnerable to climate change in Western Balkans? (iii) what are the climate change adaptation strategies in the six countries of the Western Balkans? The answers to these questions can help in planning activities and initial alignment of Western Balkan countries with the EU plan to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. Main body The main results of the research show that in all countries of the region, the average annual temperature increased by 1.2 °C compared to 1970, with stabilization and the beginning of the decline which can be expected around 2040. The main reasons for climate change in the region are: industry, energy, and heating sector based on coal exploitation, low energy efficiency, etc. Conclusions It can be concluded that Croatia as a member of the EU has adopted, and other five Western Balkans countries are in the process of adopting the necessary regulations and strategies towards climate change mitigation, but the implementation of specific activities is at a low level. The reason for this most often lies in the insufficient commitment of decision-makers to make significant changes in the field of climate change transition (lower level of economic development, lack of investment, and preservation of social peace). Finally, this paper provides an overview of climate change by country, scenario analysis, and policy recommendations.

Climatic Change as a Driver of Economic Development: an Example from Angara–Yenisey Siberia

Climate change and its impact on economic development is an important, but still understudied issue. This paper is aimed to fill in this gap in relation to the Angara–Yenisey macroeconomic region. It contributes to the literature in several dimensions. First, an overview of research on the climate impact on various sectors of the Russian economy is given. Second, we showed the main trends and factors in the dynamics of economic development in Russia over the past 20 years. And at last, the comparison of the average annual temperature and the gross regional product growth rates was conducted for the four regions of the Angara–Yenisey Siberia. It was concluded that there is no sufficient evidence that regional economies are significantly dependent on temperature fluctuations. Nevertheless, there is still space for further research.

Climate changes in recent decades, the evolution of the drought phenomenon and their influence on vineyards in north-eastern Romania

Unfavourable trends have been identified in the evolution of climate factors (temperatures, precipitation, etc.) over the past years, with a direct impact on the vegetative and productive potential of the vine. This calls for a reassessment of climate resources and the adaptation of cultivation technologies to the new conditions. Our paper analyses the climate data recorded between 1991 and 2020 for the Iaşi vineyard ecosystem, which allowed for the calculation of a series of bioclimatic indices and coefficients, deviations from the multiannual average values, soil moisture dynamics, and their influence on development of vegetation phenophases and grape production. The increasing tendency of the average annual temperature and the decreasing amounts of precipitation registered point to a marked warming of the vineyard climate, especially after 2000. The high values of temperatures, corroborated with the soil water deficit, determined an intensification of the atmospheric and pedological drought, a shift in vegetation phenophases, shortened development periods and a forced ripening of grapes, with a negative impact on yields, which fluctuated from one year to another. The analysis of the ecoclimate conditions over the past 30 years has highlighted an alternation of periods, a colder and wetter one between 1991 and 2006, and a warmer and dried one between 2007 and 2020.

Overall Warming with Reduced Seasonality: Temperature Change in New England, USA, 1900–2020

The ecology, economy, and cultural heritage of New England is grounded in its seasonal climate, and this seasonality is now changing as the world warms due to human activity. This research uses temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) to analyze annual and seasonal temperature changes in the New England region of the United States from 1900 to 2020 at the regional and state levels. Results show four broad trends: (1) New England and each of the states (annually and seasonally) have warmed considerably between 1900 and 2020; (2) all of the states and the region as a whole show three general periods of change (warming, cooling, and then warming again); (3) the winter season is experiencing the greatest warming; and (4) the minimum temperatures are generally warming more than the average and maximum temperatures, especially since the 1980s. The average annual temperature (analyzed at the 10-year and the five-year average levels) for every state, and New England as a whole, has increased greater than 1.5 °C from 1900 to 2020. This warming is diminishing the distinctive four-season climate of New England, resulting in changes to the region’s ecology and threatening the rural economies throughout the region.

Healthy lifestyle behaviours and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among 0.9 million Chinese adults

Background Healthy lifestyle behaviours are effective means to reduce the burden of diseases. This study was aimed to fill the knowledge gaps on the distribution, associated factors, and potential health benefits on mortality of four healthy lifestyle behaviours in China. Methods During 2015–2019, participants aged 35–75 years from 31 provinces were recruited by the China PEACE Million Persons Project. Four healthy lifestyle behaviours were investigated in our study, including non-smoking, none or moderate alcohol use, sufficient leisure time physical activity (LTPA), and healthy diet. Results Among 903,499 participants, 74.1% were non-smokers, 96.0% had none or moderate alcohol use, 23.6% had sufficient LTPA, 11.1% had healthy diet, and only 2.8% had all the four healthy lifestyle behaviours. The adherence varied across seven regions; the highest median of county-level adherence to all the four healthy lifestyle behaviours was in North China (3.3%) while the lowest in the Southwest (0.8%) (p < 0.05). Participants who were female, elder, non-farmers, urban residents, with higher income or education, hypertensive or diabetic, or with a cardiovascular disease (CVD) history were more likely to adhere to all the four healthy lifestyle behaviours (p < 0.001). County-level per capital Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was positively associated with sufficient LTPA (p < 0.05 for both rural and urban areas) and healthy diet (p < 0.01 for urban areas), while negatively associated with none or moderate alcohol use (p < 0.01 for rural areas). Average annual temperature was negatively associated with none or moderate alcohol use (p < 0.05 for rural areas) and healthy diet (p < 0.001 for rural areas). Those adhering to all the four healthy lifestyle behaviours had lower risks of all-cause mortality (HR 0.64 [95% CI: 0.52, 0.79]) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.53 [0.37, 0.76]) after a median follow-up of 2.4 years. Conclusions Adherence to healthy lifestyle behaviours in China was far from ideal. Targeted health promotion strategies were urgently needed.

Pollen-based paleoclimate reconstructions of Beloslav Lake (Northeastern Bulgaria) during the last 6000 years using modern analog technique (MAT)

The aim of the present study is to reconstruct the palaeoclimate variables in the Beloslav Lake Region (Northeastern Bulgaria) during the last 6000 years, based on the pollen analysis from lacustrine core Bel-1 and using modern analog technique (MAT). Pollen data was used for reconstructions of four parameters: average annual temperature, average temperature of the warm and cold half-year and average annual precipitation.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Ecological Vulnerability and Driving Factor Analysis in the Dongjiang River Basin, China, in the Recent 20 Years

The global ecological environment faces many challenges. Landsat thematic mapper time-series, digital elevation models, meteorology, soil types, net primary production data, socio-economic data, and auxiliary data were collected in order to construct a comprehensive evaluation system for ecological vulnerability (EV) using multi-source remote sensing data. EV was divided into five vulnerability levels: potential I, slight II, mild III, moderate IV, and severe V. Then, we analyzed and explored the spatio-temporal patterns and driving mechanisms of EV in the region over the past 20 years. Our research results showed that, from 2001 to 2019, the DRB was generally characterized as being in the severe vulnerability class, with higher upstream and downstream EV classes and a certain amount of reduction in the midstream EV classes. Moreover, EV in the DRB continues to decrease. The spatio-temporal EV patterns in the DRB were significantly influenced by the relative humidity, average annual temperature, and vegetation cover over the past 20 years. Our work can provide a basis for decision-making and technical support for ecosystem protection, ecological restoration, and ecological management in the DRB.

Cartographic modeling of the temperature fields of the land fund of the Novosibirsk region using satellite data of the MODIS/Terra spectroradiometer

The results of cartographic modeling of the temperature fields of soils of the land fund of the Novosibirsk region using satellite data obtained by the MODIS/Terra spectroradiometer are considered. The developed cartographic models give a clear idea of the spatial structure of the temperature fields of the soil cover of the Novosibirsk region and the qualitative changes in the temperature regime of soils in different years. According to the data of daytime and nighttime surveys, the peculiarities of the temperature distribution of the soil cover for 2001 and 2010 were established. The values of the average annual temperature of the underlying surface for 2001–2014 were calculated. It is assumed that thermal resources not reflected in the generalization of zonal zoning can be identified on cartographic models. These resources have independent ecological significance and characterize the diversity of landscape, anthropogenic and other types of climate.

Multi-predictor mapping of soil organic carbon in the alpine tundra: a case study for the central Ecuadorian páramo

Background Soil organic carbon (SOC) affects essential biological, biochemical, and physical soil functions such as nutrient cycling, water retention, water distribution, and soil structure stability. The Andean páramo known as such a high carbon and water storage capacity ecosystem is a complex, heterogeneous and remote ecosystem complicating field studies to collect SOC data. Here, we propose a multi-predictor remote quantification of SOC using Random Forest Regression to map SOC stock in the herbaceous páramo of the Chimborazo province, Ecuador. Results Spectral indices derived from the Landsat-8 (L8) sensors, OLI and TIRS, topographic, geological, soil taxonomy and climate variables were used in combination with 500 in situ SOC sampling data for training and calibrating a suitable predictive SOC model. The final predictive model selected uses nine predictors with a RMSE of 1.72% and a R2 of 0.82 for SOC expressed in weight %, a RMSE of 25.8 Mg/ha and a R2 of 0.77 for the model in units of Mg/ha. Satellite-derived indices such as VARIG, SLP, NDVI, NDWI, SAVI, EVI2, WDRVI, NDSI, NDMI, NBR and NBR2 were not found to be strong SOC predictors. Relevant predictors instead were in order of importance: geological unit, soil taxonomy, precipitation, elevation, orientation, slope length and steepness (LS Factor), Bare Soil Index (BI), average annual temperature and TOA Brightness Temperature. Conclusions Variables such as the BI index derived from satellite images and the LS factor from the DEM increase the SOC mapping accuracy. The mapping results show that over 57% of the study area contains high concentrations of SOC, between 150 and 205 Mg/ha, positioning the herbaceous páramo as an ecosystem of global importance. The results obtained with this study can be used to extent the SOC mapping in the whole herbaceous ecosystem of Ecuador offering an efficient and accurate methodology without the need for intensive in situ sampling.