Implementing an Operational Ozone Forecasting System Based on WRF/CALMET/CALGRID Models: a 5-Month Case Study over Tuscany, Italy

2009 ◽  
Vol 209 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 269-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Gualtieri
Keyword(s):  
Forecasting System ◽  
Ozone Forecasting

A novel interval forecasting system for uncertainty modeling based on multi-input multi-output theory: A case study on modern wind stations

2021 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 88-104
Author(s):  
Tongxiang Liu ◽  
Qiujun Zhao ◽  
Jianzhou Wang ◽  
Yuyang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Modeling ◽  
Forecasting System

scholarly journals The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System: Exploring First Steps Towards Determining The Limits of Predictability For Short-Term Ozone Forecasting

2005 ◽  
Vol 116 (2) ◽  
pp. 363-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Cope ◽  
G. D. Hess ◽  
S. Lee ◽  
K. J. Tory ◽  
M. Burgers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Air Quality Forecasting ◽  
Ozone Forecasting

scholarly journals Probabilistic forecasting of wind power production losses in cold climates: a case study

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 667-680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennie Molinder ◽  
Heiner Körnich ◽  
Esbjörn Olsson ◽  
Hans Bergström ◽  
Anna Sjöblom
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Spatial Representation ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Cold Climates ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Production Losses

Abstract. The problem of icing on wind turbines in cold climates is addressed using probabilistic forecasting to improve next-day forecasts of icing and related production losses. A case study of probabilistic forecasts was generated for a 2-week period. Uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions are represented with an ensemble forecasting system, while uncertainties in the spatial representation are included with a neighbourhood method. Using probabilistic forecasting instead of one single forecast was shown to improve the forecast skill of the ice-related production loss forecasts and hence the icing forecasts. The spread of the multiple forecasts can be used as an estimate of the forecast uncertainty and of the likelihood for icing and severe production losses. Best results, both in terms of forecast skill and forecasted uncertainty, were achieved using both the ensemble forecast and the neighbourhood method combined. This demonstrates that the application of probabilistic forecasting for wind power in cold climates can be valuable when planning next-day energy production, in the usage of de-icing systems and for site safety.

scholarly journals Probabilistic forecasting of wind power production losses in cold climates: A case study

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennie P. Söderman ◽  
Heiner Körnich ◽  
Esbjörn Olsson ◽  
Hans Bergström ◽  
Anna Sjöblom
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Cold Climates ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Production Losses

Abstract. The problem of icing on wind turbines in cold climates is addressed using probabilistic forecasting to improve next- day forecasts of icing and related production losses. A case study of probabilistic forecasts was generated for a two- week period. Uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions are represented with an ensemble forecasting system, while uncertainties in the spatial representation are included with a neighbourhood method. Using probabilistic forecasting instead of one single forecast was shown to improve the forecast skill of the ice-related production loss forecasts and hence the icing forecasts. The spread of the multiple forecasts can be used as an estimate of the forecast uncertainty and of the likelihood for icing and severe production losses. Best results, both in terms of forecast skill and forecasted uncertainty, were achieved using both the ensemble forecast and the neighbourhood method combined. This demonstrates that the application of probabilistic forecasting for wind power in cold climate can be valuable when planning next-day energy production, in the usage of de-icing systems, and for site safety.

scholarly journals Application of data-based mechanistic modelling for flood forecasting at multiple locations in the Eden catchment in the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales)

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Leedal ◽  
A. H. Weerts ◽  
P. J. Smith ◽  
K. J. Beven
Keyword(s):  
Warning System ◽  
Open Shell ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Mechanistic Modelling ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract. The Delft Flood Early Warning System provides a versatile framework for real-time flood forecasting. The UK Environment Agency has adopted the Delft framework to deliver its National Flood Forecasting System. The Delft system incorporates new flood forecasting models very easily using an "open shell" framework. This paper describes how we added the data-based mechanistic modelling approach to the model inventory and presents a case study for the Eden catchment (Cumbria, UK).

Real-Time Flood Forecasting System: Case Study of Hsia-Yun Watershed, Taiwan

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 05015031 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jen-Kuo Huang ◽  
Ya-Hsin Chan ◽  
Kwan Tun Lee
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting System

Westerly Wind Events and the 1997/98 El Niño Event in the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System: A Case Study

2003 ◽  
Vol 16 (19) ◽  
pp. 3153-3170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédéric Vitart ◽  
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda ◽  
Laura Ferranti ◽  
David Anderson
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Westerly Wind ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
System A ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
Westerly Wind Events

Un système de prévision appliqué aux crues subites de la rivière Châteauguay

2000 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 1311-1315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lavallée ◽  
Luc Roy ◽  
Claude Marche
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Technical Note ◽  
Civil Protection ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Flood Plains ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Temporary Protection ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Result Analysis

Increasing occupation of flood plains augments the number of residents affected with flashfloods. Temporary protection measures can be considered as long as the authorities are warned soon enough before the occurrence of a flood. A simple forecasting system is presented in this technical note. It is based on the coupling of one hydrological model with one hydraulic model, and on a data acquisition and result analysis module. A case study is also presented.Key words: flashfloods, civil protection, flood, warning.[Journal translation]

Hybrid multi-model forecasting system: A case study on display market

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 ◽  
pp. 279-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen-Chun Lin ◽  
Chun-Ling Lin ◽  
Joseph Z. Shyu
Keyword(s):  
System A ◽  
Forecasting System
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