Two-line-element propagation improvement and uncertainty estimation using recurrent neural networks

Author(s):  
Giacomo Curzi ◽  
Dario Modenini ◽  
Paolo Tortora
2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (5s) ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Meiyi Ma ◽  
John Stankovic ◽  
Ezio Bartocci ◽  
Lu Feng

Predictive monitoring—making predictions about future states and monitoring if the predicted states satisfy requirements—offers a promising paradigm in supporting the decision making of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). Existing works of predictive monitoring mostly focus on monitoring individual predictions rather than sequential predictions. We develop a novel approach for monitoring sequential predictions generated from Bayesian Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) that can capture the inherent uncertainty in CPS, drawing on insights from our study of real-world CPS datasets. We propose a new logic named Signal Temporal Logic with Uncertainty (STL-U) to monitor a flowpipe containing an infinite set of uncertain sequences predicted by Bayesian RNNs. We define STL-U strong and weak satisfaction semantics based on whether all or some sequences contained in a flowpipe satisfy the requirement. We also develop methods to compute the range of confidence levels under which a flowpipe is guaranteed to strongly (weakly) satisfy an STL-U formula. Furthermore, we develop novel criteria that leverage STL-U monitoring results to calibrate the uncertainty estimation in Bayesian RNNs. Finally, we evaluate the proposed approach via experiments with real-world CPS datasets and a simulated smart city case study, which show very encouraging results of STL-U based predictive monitoring approach outperforming baselines.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dean Sumner ◽  
Jiazhen He ◽  
Amol Thakkar ◽  
Ola Engkvist ◽  
Esben Jannik Bjerrum

<p>SMILES randomization, a form of data augmentation, has previously been shown to increase the performance of deep learning models compared to non-augmented baselines. Here, we propose a novel data augmentation method we call “Levenshtein augmentation” which considers local SMILES sub-sequence similarity between reactants and their respective products when creating training pairs. The performance of Levenshtein augmentation was tested using two state of the art models - transformer and sequence-to-sequence based recurrent neural networks with attention. Levenshtein augmentation demonstrated an increase performance over non-augmented, and conventionally SMILES randomization augmented data when used for training of baseline models. Furthermore, Levenshtein augmentation seemingly results in what we define as <i>attentional gain </i>– an enhancement in the pattern recognition capabilities of the underlying network to molecular motifs.</p>


Author(s):  
Faisal Ladhak ◽  
Ankur Gandhe ◽  
Markus Dreyer ◽  
Lambert Mathias ◽  
Ariya Rastrow ◽  
...  

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