Euthyroid sick syndrome as an early surrogate marker of poor outcome in mild SARS-CoV-2 disease

Introduction: Final infarct volume (FIV) is a well-established predictor of outcomes in moderate and severe stroke. However, our knowledge of how FIV predicts disability in the mild stroke population is very limited. Our objective was to determine if FIV could differentiate good versus poor outcome after mild stroke. We hypothesized that smaller FIV will be associated with favorable clinical outcome. Methods: We used a retrospective, multicenter registry for consecutive patients who presented with mild stroke (NIHSS ≤ 5) within 24 hours of stroke onset. The imaging data included baseline head CT, noninvasive vascular imaging and follow up imaging (24-72 hour MR/3-5 day CT). Baseline ASPECTS, proximal arterial occlusion (PAO), collateral scores and FIV (using MIPAV) were assessed by core lab. Clinical data included age, sex, baseline NIHSS and 90 day modified Rankin Scale (mRS). Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between favorable outcome (mRS 0-1) and imaging and clinical data, and to determine a data-driven cut-point for FIV based on the maximal sensitivity and specificity of the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Among 90 patients with mild stroke, 3 who received intravenous thrombolysis and 22 who did not have follow-up imaging were excluded, leaving 65 patients (mean age 86 years, 38% female, median NIHSS score 4) in whom FIV calculations were performed. An optimal FIV cut-point at 20 cc was identified, for differentiating between favorable and poor outcomes (area under curve 0.73, 95% CI: 0.58-0.88). Of the 45 patients with FIV <20 cc, 37 (82%) had a favorable outcome compared to 5 out of 14 (36%) with FIV ≥ 20 cc (P<.01). In the multivariable model, FIV ≥ 20cc remained strongly associated with poor outcome (adjusted OR, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.02- 0.50, P<.01), irrespective of age, gender, stroke severity, ASPECTS and PAO. A higher collateral score was also found to be associated with favorable outcome (adjusted OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.12- 5.27, P=0.02). Conclusions: A final infarct volume cut point of 20 cc was found to best differentiate between the likelihood of good versus poor outcome in patients with mild stroke. Further validation of FIV as a surrogate marker is essential to improve risk prediction in mild stroke patients.

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Can angiographic vasospasm be used as a surrogate marker in evaluating therapeutic interventions for cerebral vasospasm?

Neurosurgical FOCUS ◽

10.3171/foc.2006.21.3.1 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

pp. 1-8 ◽

Cited By ~ 41

Author(s):

Colum P. Nolan ◽

R. Loch Macdonald

Keyword(s):

Cerebral Infarction ◽

Cerebral Vasospasm ◽

Surrogate Marker ◽

Therapeutic Interventions ◽

Level Of Evidence ◽

Poor Outcome ◽

Angiographic Vasospasm ◽

Cochrane Reviews ◽

Reasonable Evidence ◽

High Level

✓ The authors tested the null hypothesis that published literature with a high level of evidence does not support the assertion that subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) causes cerebral vasospasm, which in turn causes cerebral infarction and poor outcome after aneurysmal SAH. The medical literature on SAH was searched in MEDLINE. The author's personal files of all published literature on SAH were reviewed. References cited in Cochrane reviews as well as the published papers that were reviewed were also retrieved. There is no question that SAH causes what the authors have chosen to call “angiographic vasospasm.” However, the incidence and severity of vasospasm in recent series of patients is not well defined. There is reasonable evidence that vasospasm causes infarction, but again, accurate data on how severe and how diffuse vasospasm has to be to cause infarction and how often vasospasm is the primary cause of infarction are not available. There are good data on the incidence of cerebral infarction after SAH, and these data indicate that it is highly associated with poor outcome. The link between angiographic vasospasm and poor outcome is particularly poorly described in terms of what would be considered data of a high level of evidence. The question as to whether there is a clear pathway from SAH to vasospasm to cerebral infarction to poor outcome seems so obvious to neurosurgeons as to make it one not worth asking. Nevertheless, the obvious is not always true or accurate, so it is important to note that published literature only weakly supports the causative association of vasospasm with infarction and poor outcome after SAH. It behooves neurosurgeons to document this seemingly straightforward pathway with high-quality evidence acceptable to the proponents of evidence-based medicine.

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HEPATITIS C RECURRENCE IS A SURROGATE MARKER FOR POOR OUTCOME FOLLOWING LIVER RETRANSPLANTATION

Transplantation Journal ◽

10.1097/00007890-200407271-01058 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 78 ◽

pp. 395

Author(s):

J L. Soule ◽

A J. Olyaei ◽

J M. Schwartz ◽

H R. Rosen ◽

J M. Ham ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hepatitis C ◽

Surrogate Marker ◽

Poor Outcome ◽

Hepatitis C Recurrence ◽

Liver Retransplantation

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Analysis of subarachnoid hemorrhage using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample: the NIS-SAH Severity Score and Outcome Measure

Journal of Neurosurgery ◽

10.3171/2014.4.jns131100 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 121 (2) ◽

pp. 482-489 ◽

Cited By ~ 51

Author(s):

Chad W. Washington ◽

Colin P. Derdeyn ◽

Ralph G. Dacey ◽

Rajat Dhar ◽

Gregory J. Zipfel

Keyword(s):

Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽

Disease Severity ◽

Severity Score ◽

Nationwide Inpatient Sample ◽

Outcome Measure ◽

Surrogate Marker ◽

Data Sets ◽

Valid Measure ◽

Model Population ◽

Poor Outcome

Object Studies using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), a large ICD-9–based (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision) administrative database, to analyze aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) have been limited by an inability to control for SAH severity and the use of unverified outcome measures. To address these limitations, the authors developed and validated a surrogate marker for SAH severity, the NIS-SAH Severity Score (NIS-SSS; akin to Hunt and Hess [HH] grade), and a dichotomous measure of SAH outcome, the NIS-SAH Outcome Measure (NIS-SOM; akin to modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score). Methods Three separate and distinct patient cohorts were used to define and then validate the NIS-SSS and NIS-SOM. A cohort (n = 148,958, the “model population”) derived from the 1998–2009 NIS was used for developing the NIS-SSS and NIS-SOM models. Diagnoses most likely reflective of SAH severity were entered into a regression model predicting poor outcome; model coefficients of significant factors were used to generate the NIS-SSS. Nationwide Inpatient Sample codes most likely to reflect a poor outcome (for example, discharge disposition, tracheostomy) were used to create the NIS-SOM. Data from 716 patients with SAH (the “validation population”) treated at the authors' institution were used to validate the NIS-SSS and NIS-SOM against HH grade and mRS score, respectively. Lastly, 147,395 patients (the “assessment population”) from the 1998–2009 NIS, independent of the model population, were used to assess performance of the NIS-SSS in predicting outcome. The ability of the NIS-SSS to predict outcome was compared with other common measures of disease severity (All Patient Refined Diagnosis Related Group [APR-DRG], All Payer Severity-adjusted DRG [APS-DRG], and DRG). Results The NIS-SSS significantly correlated with HH grade, and there was no statistical difference between the abilities of the NIS-SSS and HH grade to predict mRS-based outcomes. As compared with the APR-DRG, APSDRG, and DRG, the NIS-SSS was more accurate in predicting SAH outcome (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.69, 0.71, 0.71, and 0.79, respectively). A strong correlation between NIS-SOM and mRS was found, with an agreement and kappa statistic of 85% and 0.63, respectively, when poor outcome was defined by an mRS score > 2 and 95% and 0.84 when poor outcome was defined by an mRS score > 3. Conclusions Data in this study indicate that in the analysis of NIS data sets, the NIS-SSS is a valid measure of SAH severity that outperforms previous measures of disease severity and that the NIS-SOM is a valid measure of SAH outcome. It is critically important that outcomes research in SAH using administrative data sets incorporate the NIS-SSS and NIS-SOM to adjust for neurology-specific disease severity.

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Loss of consciousness at ictus and/or poor World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grade on admission reflects the impact of EBI and predicts poor outcome in patients with SAH

Surgical Neurology International ◽

10.25259/sni_551_2019 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 ◽

pp. 40

Author(s):

Satoshi Takahashi ◽

Takenori Akiyama ◽

Takashi Horiguchi ◽

Tomoru Miwa ◽

Ryo Takemura ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Univariate Analysis ◽

Delayed Cerebral Ischemia ◽

Surrogate Marker ◽

Older Age ◽

World Federation ◽

Loss Of Consciousness ◽

Poor Outcome ◽

Specificity And Sensitivity ◽

Grade 3 ◽

The Impact

Background: There are many scores and markers that predict poor outcome in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). However, parameters that can predict outcomes in patients with SAH with high specificity and sensitivity, which can be identified in the early postictal state and utilized as a clinical marker of early brain injury (EBI) have not been identified so far. Methods: Thirty-nine patients with SAH due to a saccular intracranial aneurysm rupture were reviewed. We retrospectively analyzed the relationships between patients’ baseline characteristics and patients’ outcomes to identify parameters that could predict patient outcomes in the early postictal state. Results: In the univariate analysis, older age (>65), loss of consciousness (LOC) at ictus, poor initial World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grade (3–5), and delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) were associated with poor outcome (GOS 1–3). Statistical analyses revealed that combined LOC at ictus and/or poor initial WFNS grade (3–5) was a more powerful surrogate marker of outcome (OR 15.2 [95% CI 3.1–75.5]) than either LOC at ictus or the poor initial WFNS grade (3–5) alone. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that older age, combined LOC at ictus and/or poor initial WFNS grade, and DCI were independently associated with poor outcome. Conclusion: Combined LOC at ictus and/or poor initial WFNS grade (3–5) reflects the impact of EBI and was a useful surrogate marker of poor prognosis in SAH patients, independent of patients’ age and state of DCI.

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