Event Uncertainty

Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
Zdenko Šimić ◽  
Reni Banov ◽  
Igor Vukovic ◽  
Vladimir Mikulicic




1968 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 177-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ira H. Bernstein ◽  
R. Randolph Blake ◽  
Michael H. Hughes




2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (1) ◽  
pp. 224-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Cipriani ◽  
Antonio Guarino

We develop a new methodology to estimate herd behavior in financial markets. We build a model of informational herding that can be estimated with financial transaction data. In the model, rational herding arises because of information-event uncertainty. We estimate the model using data on a NYSE stock (Ashland Inc.) during 1995. Herding occurs often and is particularly pervasive on some days. On average, the proportion of herd buyers is 2 percent; that of herd sellers is 4 percent. Herding also causes important informational inefficiencies in the market, amounting, on average, to 4 percent of the asset's expected value. (JEL C58, D82, D83, G12, G14)





mSystems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda M. Achberger ◽  
Shawn M. Doyle ◽  
Makeda I. Mills ◽  
Charles P. Holmes ◽  
Antonietta Quigg ◽  
...  

Vast quantities of oil-associated marine snow (MOS) formed in the water column as part of the natural biological response to the Deepwater Horizon drilling accident. Despite the scale of the event, uncertainty remains about the mechanisms controlling MOS formation and its impact on the environment.



2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-202
Author(s):  
Woo-Baik Lee ◽  
Min-Cheol Woo

Trading of KOSPI 200 futures on CME Globex platform, which was launched in November 2009, starts at 18:00 and closes at 05:00 in the next morning. This paper examines how price of KOSPI200 Global futures is discovered during nighttime trading session by using tick data. The overall results of this study can be summarized as follows; First, we find that the weighted price contribution (WPC) exhibits asymmetric ‘W’-shaped curve during session. This finding is interpreted as that information is consequently transmitted from Globex and NYSE with ‘U’-shaped curve of intradaily price discovery to KOSPI 200 Global futures. Meanwhile, the weighted volume contribution (WVC) also shows ‘W’-shaped curve but weighted price contribution per volume contribution (WPCV) indicates asymmetric ‘U’-shaped curve. This finding that a trade is more (less) informative when trading intensity is higher (lower) provides evidence of partially supporting the “Event Uncertainty Hypothesis” over “Hot Potato Hypothesis”. Second, the price change of closing to opening time significantly contributes to price change during the close-to-close time span. This result explains information during regular daytime trading of KOSPI200 futures is efficiently incorporated in opening price of nighttime session. Third, nighttime traders of KOSPI200 futures recognize volatility of US stock market as more valuable information than the price of futures on CME Globex.



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