AbstractThe fitness of spatially expanding species has been shown to decrease over time and space, but specialist species tracking their changing environment and shifting their range accordingly have been little studied. We use individual-based simulations and analytical modeling to compare the impact of range expansions and range shifts on genetic diversity and fitness loss, as well as the ability to recover fitness after either a shift or expansion. We find that the speed of a shift has a strong impact on fitness evolution. Fastest shifts show the strongest fitness loss per generation, but intermediate shift speeds lead to the strongest fitness loss per geographic distance. Range shifting species lose fitness more slowly through time than expanding species, however, their fitness compared at equivalent geographic distances spread can be considerably lower. These counter-intuitive results arise from the combination of time over which selection acts and mutations enter the system. Range shifts also exhibit reduced fitness recovery after a geographic shift and may result in extinction, whereas range expansions can persist from the core of the species range. The complexity of range expansions and range shifts highlights the potential for severe consequences of environmental change on species survival.Author SummaryAs environments change through time across the globe, species must adapt or relocate to survive. Specialized species must track the specific moving environments to which they are adapted, as compared to generalists which can spread widely. During colonization of new habitat, individuals can accumulate deleterious alleles through repeated bottlenecks. We show through simulation and analytic modeling that the process by which these alleles accumulate changes depending upon the speed at which populations spread over a landscape. This is due to the increased efficacy of selection against deleterious variants at slow speeds of range shifts and decreased input of mutations at faster speeds of range shifts. Under some selective circumstances, shifting of a species range leads to extinction of the entire population. This suggests that the rate of environmental change across the globe will play a large role in the survival of specialist species as compared to more generalist species.
Tree species range shifts at a continental scale: new predictive insights from a process-based model
