Time Series Analysis of Variables Associated With Daily Mean Emergency Department Length of Stay

BackgroundReducing costs while increasing or maintaining quality is crucial to delivering high value care.ObjectiveTo assess the impact of a hospital value-based management programme on cost and quality.DesignTime series analysis of non-psychiatric, non-rehabilitation, non-newborn patients discharged between 1 September 2011 and 31 December 2017 from a US urban, academic medical centre.InterventionNYU Langone Health instituted an institution-wide programme in April 2014 to increase value of healthcare, defined as health outcomes achieved per dollar spent. Key features included joint clinical and operational leadership; granular and transparent cost accounting; dedicated project support staff; information technology support; and a departmental shared savings programme.MeasurementsChange in variable direct costs; secondary outcomes included changes in length of stay, readmission and in-hospital mortality.ResultsThe programme chartered 74 projects targeting opportunities in supply chain management (eg, surgical trays), operational efficiency (eg, discharge optimisation), care of outlier patients (eg, those at end of life) and resource utilisation (eg, blood management). The study cohort included 160 434 hospitalisations. Adjusted variable costs decreased 7.7% over the study period. Admissions with medical diagnosis related groups (DRG) declined an average 0.20% per month relative to baseline. Admissions with surgical DRGs had an early increase in costs of 2.7% followed by 0.37% decrease in costs per month. Mean expense per hospitalisation improved from 13% above median for teaching hospitals to 2% above median. Length of stay decreased by 0.25% per month relative to prior trends (95% CI −0.34 to 0.17): approximately half a day by the end of the study period. There were no significant changes in 30-day same-hospital readmission or in-hospital mortality. Estimated institutional savings after intervention costs were approximately $53.9 million.LimitationsObservational analysis.ConclusionA systematic programme to increase healthcare value by lowering the cost of care without compromising quality is achievable and sustainable over several years.

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Impact of integrated care on trends in the rate of emergency department visits among older persons in Stockholm County: an interrupted time series analysis

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2019-036182 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. e036182

Author(s):

Megan Doheny ◽

Janne Agerholm ◽

Nicola Orsini ◽

Pär Schön ◽

Bo Burström

Keyword(s):

Emergency Department ◽

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Integrated Care ◽

Older Persons ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Stockholm County ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Ed Visits

ObjectiveTo investigate the association between the implementation of an integrated care (IC) system in Norrtälje municipality and changes in trends of the rate of emergency department (ED) visits.DesignInterrupted time series analysis from 2000 to 2015.SettingStockholm County.ParticipantsAll inhabitants 65+ years in Stockholm County on 31 December of each study year.InterventionIC was established by combining the funding, administration and delivery of health and social care for older persons in Norrtälje municipality, within Stockholm County.OutcomeRates of hospital-based ED visits.ResultsIC was associated with a decrease in the rate of ED visits (incidence rate ratio: 0.997, 95% CI 0.995 to 0.998) among inhabitants 65+ years in Norrtälje. However, the rate of ED visits remained higher in Norrtälje than the rest of Stockholm in the preintervention and postintervention periods. Stratified analyses showed that IC was associated with a decline in the trend of the rate of ED visits among those 65–79 years, the lowest income group and born outside of Sweden. However, there was no significant decrease in the trend among those 80+ years.ConclusionThe implementation of IC was associated with a modest change in the trend of ED visits in Norrtälje, though the rate of ED visits remained higher than in the rest of Stockholm. Changes in the composition of the population and contextual changes may have impacted our findings. Further research, using other outcome measures is needed to assess the impact of IC on healthcare utilisation.

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Hourly Forecasting of Emergency Department Arrivals – Time Series Analysis

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3311030 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Avishek Choudhury

Keyword(s):

Emergency Department ◽

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Series Analysis

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An interrupted time-series analysis of the impact of emergency department reconfiguration on regional emergency department trolley numbers in Ireland from 2005 to 2015

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2019-029261 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (9) ◽

pp. e029261 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Brenda Lynch ◽

John Browne ◽

Claire Mary Buckley ◽

Orla Healy ◽

Paul Corcoran ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Emergency Department ◽

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Series Analysis ◽

North East ◽

The North ◽

Number Of Patients ◽

Geographical Regions ◽

The Impact

ObjectivesTo understand the impact of emergency department (ED) reconfiguration on the number of patients waiting for hospital beds on trolleys in the remaining EDs in four geographical regions in Ireland using time-series analysis.SettingEDs in four Irish regions; the West, North-East, South and Mid-West from 2005 to 2015.ParticipantsAll patients counted as waiting on trolleys in an ED for a hospital bed in the study hospitals from 2005 to 2015.InterventionThe system intervention was the reconfiguration of ED services, as determined by the Department of Health and Health Service Executive. The timing of these interventions varied depending on the hospital and region in question.ResultsThree of the four regions studied experienced a significant change in ED trolley numbers in the 12-month post-ED reconfiguration. The trend ratio before and after the intervention for these regions was as follows: North-East incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.85 (95% CI 2.04 to 3.99, p<0.001), South IRR 0.68 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.89, p=0.006) and the Mid-West IRR 0.03 (95% 1.03 to 2.03, p=0.03). Two of these regions, the South and the Mid-West, displayed a convergence between the observed and expected trolley numbers in the 12-month post-reconfiguration. The North-East showed a much steeper increase, one that extended beyond the 12-month period post-ED reconfiguration.ConclusionsFindings suggest that the impacts of ED reconfiguration on regional level ED trolley trends were either non-significant or caused a short-term shock which converged on the pre-reconfiguration trend over the following 12 months. However, the North-East is identified as an exception due to increased pressures in one regional hospital, which caused a change in trend beyond the 12-month post reconfiguration.

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