Forecasting the monthly iron ore import of China using a model combining empirical mode decomposition, non-linear autoregressive neural network, and autoregressive integrated moving average

2020 ◽  
Vol 94 ◽  
pp. 106475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng-Xin Wang ◽  
Yu-Feng Zhao ◽  
Ling-Yang He
Forecasting ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Álvarez-Díaz ◽  
Manuel González-Gómez ◽  
María Otero-Giráldez

This study explores the forecasting ability of two powerful non-linear computational methods: artificial neural networks and genetic programming. We use as a case of study the monthly international tourism demand in Spain, approximated by the number of tourist arrivals and of overnight stays. The forecasting results reveal that non-linear methods achieve slightly better predictions than those obtained by a traditional forecasting technique, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) approach. This slight forecasting improvement was close to being statistically significant. Forecasters must judge whether the high cost of implementing these computational methods is worthwhile.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maobin Li ◽  
Shouwen Ji ◽  
Gang Liu

With the rapid development of e-commerce (EC) and shopping online, accurate and efficient forecasting of e-commerce sales (ECS) is very important for making strategies for purchasing and inventory of EC enterprises. Affected by many factors, ECS volume range varies greatly and has both linear and nonlinear characteristics. Three forecast models of ECS, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN), and ARIMA-NARNN, are used to verify the forecasting efficiency of the methods. Several time series of ECS from China’s Jingdong Corporation are selected as experimental data. The result shows that the ARIMA-NARNN model is more effective than ARIMA and NARNN models in forecasting ECS. The analysis found that the ARIMA-NARNN model combines the linear fitting of ARIMA and the nonlinear mapping of NARNN, so it shows better prediction performance than the ARIMA and NARNN methods.


2013 ◽  
Vol 313-314 ◽  
pp. 1256-1261
Author(s):  
Guo Chen Feng ◽  
Peng Jian Shang ◽  
Xue Jiao Wang

In this paper we pay attention to the preprocessing of time series and its application. We apply Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) to decompose three kinds of series into their components in order to study the data and forecast more efficiently. We try to unite EMD analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average processes (ARIMA) into a new forecasting technique which we call EMD-ARIMA. We find that our method is extraordinarily close to the original data.


Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1248
Author(s):  
Rafia Nishat Toma ◽  
Cheol-Hong Kim ◽  
Jong-Myon Kim

Condition monitoring is used to track the unavoidable phases of rolling element bearings in an induction motor (IM) to ensure reliable operation in domestic and industrial machinery. The convolutional neural network (CNN) has been used as an effective tool to recognize and classify multiple rolling bearing faults in recent times. Due to the nonlinear and nonstationary nature of vibration signals, it is quite difficult to achieve high classification accuracy when directly using the original signal as the input of a convolution neural network. To evaluate the fault characteristics, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is implemented to decompose the signal into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) in this work. Then, based on the kurtosis value, insignificant IMFs are filtered out and the original signal is reconstructed with the rest of the IMFs so that the reconstructed signal contains the fault characteristics. After that, the 1-D reconstructed vibration signal is converted into a 2-D image using a continuous wavelet transform with information from the damage frequency band. This also transfers the signal into a time-frequency domain and reduces the nonstationary effects of the vibration signal. Finally, the generated images of various fault conditions, which possess a discriminative pattern relative to the types of faults, are used to train an appropriate CNN model. Additionally, with the reconstructed signal, two different methods are used to create an image to compare with our proposed image creation approach. The vibration signal is collected from a self-designed testbed containing multiple bearings of different fault conditions. Two other conventional CNN architectures are compared with our proposed model. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that the image generated with fault signatures not only accurately classifies multiple faults with CNN but can also be considered as a reliable and stable method for the diagnosis of fault bearings.


Author(s):  
Palani Thanaraj Krishnan ◽  
Alex Noel Joseph Raj ◽  
Vijayarajan Rajangam

A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40747-021-00377-y


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