Extreme rainfall events over Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil: Characterization using probability distribution functions and clustering analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. 105221
Author(s):  
Allana Oliveira Lima ◽  
Gustavo Bastos Lyra ◽  
Marcel Carvalho Abreu ◽  
José Francisco Oliveira-Júnior ◽  
Marcelo Zeri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Clustering Analysis ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions ◽  
Janeiro State

scholarly journals Assessment of Integrated Water Vapor Estimates from the iGMAS and the Brazilian Network GNSS Ground-Based Receivers in Rio de Janeiro

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galdino V. Mota ◽  
Shuli Song ◽  
Katarzyna Stępniak
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Heat Islands ◽  
Station Data ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Differences

There is crescent demand for knowledge improvement of the integrated water vapor (IWV) distribution in regions affected by heat islands that are associated with extreme rainfall events such as in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ). This work assessed the suitability and distribution of IWV in the MARJ using products from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and radiosonde. GNSS data were collected by the tracking station named RDJN, from the cooperation of the International GNSS Monitoring and Assessment System (iGMAS) and the National Observatory of Brazil (Observatório Nacional - ON), and the tracking stations ONRJ, RIOD, and RJCG belonging to the Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring (RBMC) in the period of January 2015–August 2018. High variability of the near surface air temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) were observed among eight meteorological sites considered. The mean T differences between sites, up to 4.4 °C, led to mean differences as high as 3.1 K for weighted mean temperature (Tm) and hence 0.83 mm for IWV differences. The performance of the MODIS MOD07 and MYD07 products provided a reasonably good representation of the mean spatial distribution of IWV, especially during the daylight passages of the satellites TERRA and AQUA. Local grid points of MODIS IWV estimates had relatively good agreement with the GNSS-derived IWV, with mean differences from -2.4–1.1 mm considering only daytime passages of the satellites TERRA and AQUA. During nighttime, MODIS underestimated IWV (from -9–-3 mm) with respect to GNSS, due to attenuation of IR radiation by clouds. A contrasting behavior was found in the radiosonde IWV estimates compared with the estimates from GNSS. There were dry biases of 1.4 mm (3.7% lower than expected) by radiosonde IWV during the daytime considering that all other estimates were unbiased and the differences between IWV GNSS and IWV RADS were consistent. Based on the IWV comparisons between radiosonde and GNSS at nighttime, the atmosphere over the radiosonde site is about 1.2 (2.3) mm wetter than over RIOD (RDJN) station. The long time series of the comparisons between IWVRDJN and IWVRIOD showed that the highest values of IWV occurred from the afternoon to nocturnal hours. Further, the atmosphere over the site RIOD was consistently about 1 mm wetter than over RDJN. These results showed the feasibility of the iGMAS RDJN station data compared with the RBMC, MODIS, and radiosonde data to investigate IWV in a region with occurrence of heat islands, and the peculiar physiographic and meteorological characteristics as in the MARJ. This work recommended the usage of complete meteorological station data collocated near every GNSS receiver aiming improvements of local GNSS IWV estimates and serving as additional support for operational numerical assimilation, weather forecast, and nowcast of extreme rainfall events.

scholarly journals Extreme Rainfall Return Periods using Gumbel and Gamma Distribution

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4S2) ◽  
pp. 26-29
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Gamma Distributions

Extreme rainfall amount at various return periods is one of the key inputs in the design of various hydraulic structures. In order to reduce damages that may arise due to extreme rainfall, it is very important to estimate accurately by a suitable probability distribution. Gumbel and Gamma distributions are widely applied to fit the extreme rainfall events. In the present work, an attempt is made to find maximum rainfall that could occur at various return periods, (10, 20, 50, 75, 100 and 200 years) for Tiruchirappalli city located in India. The rainfall data starting from the year 1904 to 2010 is used to predict extreme rainfall. Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) were employed to determine the best probability distribution for rainfall data belongs to Tiruchirappalli station.

The Influence of Geographical Factors on Extreme Rainfalls in Lampung Province

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
M Welly
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Location ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Ungauged Basin ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Design Rainfall ◽  
Geographical Factors

Many people in Indonesia calculate design rainfall before calculating the design flooddischarge. The design rainfall with a certain return period will eventually be convertedinto a design flood discharge by combining it with the characteristics of the watershed.However, the lack of a network of rainfall recording stations makes many areas that arenot hydrologically measured (ungauged basin), so it is quite difficult to know thecharacteristics of rain in the area concerned. This study aims to analyze thecharacteristics of design rainfall in Lampung Province. The focus of the analysis is toinvestigate whether geographical factors influence the design rainfall that occurs in theparticular area. The data used in this study is daily rainfall data from 15 rainfallrecording stations spread in Lampung Province. The method of frequency analysis usedin this study is the Gumbel method. The research shows that the geographical location ofan area does not have significant effect on extreme rainfall events. The effect of risingearth temperatures due to natural exploitation by humans tends to be stronger as a causeof extreme events such as extreme rainfall.Keywords: Influence, geographical, factors, extreme, rainfall.

CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN SANTA CATARINA STATE, BRAZIL: PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 413 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Becker Nunes ◽  
Gilson Carlos Da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
History Of ◽  
Santa Catarina State

ABSTRACT. The eastern region of Santa Catarina State (Brazil) has an important history of natural disasters due to extreme rainfall events. Floods and landslides are enhancedby local features such as orography and urbanization: the replacement of natural surface coverage causing more surface runoff and, hence, flooding. Thus, studies of this type of events – which directly influence life in the towns – take on increasing importance. This work makes a quantitative analysis of occurrences of extreme rainfall events in the eastern and northern regions of Santa Catarina State in the last 60 years, through individual analysis, considering the history of floods ineach selected town, as well as an estimate through to the end of century following regional climate modeling. A positive linear trend, in most of the towns studied, was observed in the results, indicating greater frequency of these events in recent decades, and the HadRM3P climate model shows a heterogeneous increase of events for all towns in the period from 2071 to 2100.Keywords: floods, climate modeling, linear trend. RESUMO. A região leste do Estado de Santa Catarina tem um importante histórico de desastres naturais ocasionados por eventos extremos de precipitação. Inundações e deslizamentos de terra são potencializados pelo relevo acidentado e pela urbanização das cidades da região: a vegetação nativa vem sendo removida acarretando um maior escoamento superficial e, consequentemente, em inundações. Desta forma, torna-se de suma importância os estudos acerca deste tipo de evento que influencia diretamente a sociedade em geral. Neste trabalho é realizada uma análise quantitativa do número de eventos severos de precipitação ocorridos nas regiões leste e norte de Santa Catarina dos últimos 60 anos, por meio de uma análise pontual, considerandoo histórico de inundações de cada cidade selecionada, além de uma projeção para o fim do século de acordo com modelagem climática regional. Na análise dos resultados observou-se uma tendência linear positiva na maioria das cidades, indicando uma maior frequência deste tipo de evento nas últimas décadas, e o modelo climático HadRM3P mostra um aumento heterogêneo no número de eventos para todas as cidades no período de 2071 a 2100.Palavras-chave: inundações, modelagem climática, tendência linear.

Comparing vulnerability and institutional capacities in three Latin American coastal localities in response to extreme rainfall events

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arturo Ruiz-Luna ◽  
Claudia Martínez-Peralta ◽  
Patricia P. B. Eichler ◽  
Leonardo R. Teixeira ◽  
Montserrat Acosta-Morel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anil Deo ◽  
Savin S. Chand ◽  
Hamish Ramsay ◽  
Neil J. Holbrook ◽  
Simon McGree ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Pacific Island ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Southwest Pacific ◽  
Inactive Phase ◽  
Pacific Island Nations

AbstractSouthwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

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