Complexity of an SIR epidemic dynamics model with impulsive vaccination control

Abstract Background: Given the attention on COVID-19 testing and its role in helping to halt the spread of COVID-19 Pandemic, wider testing is urgently needed for successful pandemic control. The level of the test’s performance is also important for effective management of the different stages of the pandemic.Objectives: To study the impact of RT-PCR testing in control of COVID-19 Pandemic and validity of RT-PCR as a predictor for COVID- 19 diseaseMethods: The data was collected essentially by using secondary data. All cases and deaths in WHO Situation Reports and total tests in Worldometer were included in the study. Wolfram Player 12 software was used for the Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) epidemic dynamics of COVID-19. Survival analysis was carried out to determine the cumulative proportional survival of COVID-19 in Egypt. Six studies discussing the validity of RT-PCR was also reanalyzed. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to study the diagnostic performance of RT-PCR.Results: There was a negative correlation between both case fatality rate of COVID-19 and reproductive rate with RT-PCR tests performed . This difference is significant (r = - 0.307 and. – 0.361) respectively. RT-PCR had a sensitivity of 61.19%, Specificity 94.75%% and an accuracy of 76.72%. The area under the ROC (AUC) for RT-PCR was 0.780.Conclusion and recommendation: RT-PCR testing will continue to be needed. It reduced the case fatality and reproduction rates of COVID-19 Pandemic. The AUC for RT-PCR is less than optimal. The combination of clinical symptoms, exposure history and CT must be considered to identify COVID-19 with higher sensitivity.

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THE IMPACT OF HUMAN LOCATION-SPECIFIC CONTACT PATTERN ON THE SIR EPIDEMIC TRANSMISSION BETWEEN POPULATIONS

International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos ◽

10.1142/s0218127413500958 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 23 (05) ◽

pp. 1350095 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

LIN WANG ◽

YAN ZHANG ◽

ZHEN WANG ◽

XIANG LI

Keyword(s):

Population Model ◽

Disease Incidence ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Contact Pattern ◽

Structured Population Model ◽

Epidemic Dynamics ◽

Sir Epidemic ◽

Structured Population ◽

The Impact

The structured-population model is extensively used to study the complexity of epidemic dynamics. In many seminal researches, the impact of human mobility on the outbreak threshold has been profoundly studied, with the general assumption that the human contact pattern is mixing homogeneously. As the individual contact is assumed uniform among different subpopulations, the basic reproductive number, R0, which relates to the stability at the disease-free equilibrium, is equal to the same constant on separate locations. However, recent studies have shown that there may exist location-related factors driving the variance of disease incidence between populations, in reality. Therefore, in this study, the location-specific heterogeneous contact pattern has been introduced into a famous phenomenological structured-population model, where bidirectional recurrent commuting flows couple two typical subpopulations, to study the complex dynamics behaviors of spatial transmission of epidemics. Besides the usual SIR epidemic dynamics with birth and death processes, we take into account the contact process by assigning each member from a given subpopulation with a characteristic contact rate. Through theoretical arguments and agent-based computer simulations, we unveil that the stressed element dramatically affects the epidemic threshold of the system.

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