Simple epidemic models with segmentation can be better than complex ones

Given a sequence of epidemic events, can a single epidemic model capture its dynamics during the entire period? How should we divide the sequence into segments to better capture the dynamics? Throughout human history, infectious diseases (e.g., the Black Death and COVID-19) have been serious threats. Consequently, understanding and forecasting the evolving patterns of epidemic events are critical for prevention and decision making. To this end, epidemic models based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which effectively describe dynamic systems in many fields, have been employed. However, a single epidemic model is not enough to capture long-term dynamics of epidemic events especially when the dynamics heavily depend on external factors (e.g., lockdown and the capability to perform tests). In this work, we demonstrate that properly dividing the event sequence regarding COVID-19 (specifically, the numbers of active cases, recoveries, and deaths) into multiple segments and fitting a simple epidemic model to each segment leads to a better fit with fewer parameters than fitting a complex model to the entire sequence. Moreover, we propose a methodology for balancing the number of segments and the complexity of epidemic models, based on the Minimum Description Length principle. Our methodology is (a) Automatic: not requiring any user-defined parameters, (b) Model-agnostic: applicable to any ODE-based epidemic models, and (c) Effective: effectively describing and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in 70 countries.

Impulsive Reaction-Diffusion Delayed Models in Biology: Integral Manifolds Approach

In this paper we study an impulsive delayed reaction-diffusion model applied in biology. The introduced model generalizes existing reaction-diffusion delayed epidemic models to the impulsive case. The integral manifolds notion has been introduced to the model under consideration. This notion extends the single state notion and has important applications in the study of multi-stable systems. By means of an extension of the Lyapunov method integral manifolds’ existence, results are established. Based on the Lyapunov functions technique combined with a Poincarè-type inequality qualitative criteria related to boundedness, permanence, and stability of the integral manifolds are also presented. The application of the proposed impulsive control model is closely related to a most important problems in the mathematical biology—the problem of optimal control of epidemic models. The considered impulsive effects can be used by epidemiologists as a very effective therapy control strategy. In addition, since the integral manifolds approach is relevant in various contexts, our results can be applied in the qualitative investigations of many problems in the epidemiology of diverse interest.