This paper analysed the relationships between air passenger transport, tourism and real gross domestic product per capita (rGDPpc) in Africa. Mediation models were analysed using the structural equation modelling approach. This analysis determined the role of a mediator variable in the relationship between dependent and independent variables. Bi-directional positive relationships were found between air passenger transport and rGDPpc, tourism and rGDPpc, followed by air passenger transport and tourism. A certain proportion of air passenger transport’s total effect on rGDPpc was from increased tourism, and some of the rGDPpc’s total effect on air passenger transport were from increased tourism. A sizable effect of tourism on rGDPpc was derived from increased air passenger transport, and a larger portion of rGDPpc’s total effect on tourism was from increased air passenger transport. These percentages show the strength of the mediation (or indirect) paths. The findings imply that it is vital to consider harmonised or integrated policies that facilitate the linkages between air passenger transport, tourism and rGDPpc. Novel in this study, is the scrutiny of the interrelationships between air passenger transport, tourism and rGDPpc in Africa, using longitudinal mediation analysis.
Counterfactual Graphical Models for Longitudinal Mediation Analysis With Unobserved Confounding
