On Exports and Economic Growth: Revisiting Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Including North-South Divide

Objective: The purpose of the present study is to revisit the export-led growth hypothesis in the wake of globalization. This will help in trade policy decisions and make it possible to standpoint whether the export promotion is a good idea to accelerate economic growth. Design: The ELG hypothesis is examined for 107 countries through panel data analysis using cointegration and panel regression tests from 1990 to 2018. The study finds strong support for the long-run relationship between exports and gross domestic product and the export-led growth hypothesis in a two-variable regression framework. Findings: It is evident from the long-run coefficient of dynamic ordinary least squared that a 1.0 percent increase in real exports increases the real gross domestic product by 0.53 percent. The long-run coefficient of real exports for the Global South (0.55) is found higher than that of the Global North (0.51), which indicates that in the wave of globalization, the evidence of export-led growth hypothesis is stronger for comparatively poor Global South than the richer Global North. Practical Implications: The results indicate implications for export promotion policy in the Global South countries to accelerate economic growth and increase real gross domestic product. Originality: The study is the first to explore the ELG hypothesis using a big pool of 107 countries, including the global north-south divide.

Agricultural Output, Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Test with Structural Breaks

The agricultural sector at large plays a significant role in augmenting economic growth, serves as a source of income to the people, provides food to the teeming population, serves as a source of raw materials to the industries and provides foreign exchange to the country, etc. The current study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship among agricultural output, Government expenditure, and Economic growth in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1985 to 2019. The Zivot-Andrew unit root test indicates that gross domestic product, agricultural output, and exchange rate are stationary at first difference while government expenditure is stationary at level. The Gregory-Hansen test with structural break has confirmed the existence of a cointegration relationship among the variables employed. The Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model with break indicates that, in the short-run agricultural output has a negative and statistically insignificant effect on real gross domestic product Nigeria, government expenditure has a positive and statistically significant effect on real gross domestic product in Nigeria, and the exchange rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on real gross domestic product in Nigeria. The break-point coefficient has positive and statistically significant. The long-run result shows that agricultural output has a positive effect on the real gross domestic product in Nigeria, government expenditure has a positive effect on real gross domestic product in Nigeria, and the exchange rate has positive effects on the real gross domestic product in Nigeria. The break coefficient shows positive and statistically significant. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should reduce the lending rate on agriculture and provide incentives to the farmers, this will encourage farmers to borrow and consequently, agricultural output will increase and the Nigerian government should increase its expenditure on agriculture to boost the sector and achieve higher economic growth.

Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth: The Scenario of the MINT Economies

This study investigated the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth for Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey from 1986 to 2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds approach to cointegration and Toda and Yamamoto causality test were utilized for this study. The long-run results revealed that there is no relationship between trade liberalization and real gross domestic product per capita except for Mexico and in this situation, the significance level was at 10%. The results of the causality test showed that no causality was detected between real gross domestic product per capita and trade liberalization for Mexico and Indonesia. A bidirectional causality between real gross domestic product per capita and trade liberalization was found for Nigeria whereas a unidirectional causality from trade liberalization to real gross domestic product per capita was revealed for Turkey. The no causality results for Mexico and Indonesia means that the policy objectives of trade liberalization and economic growth can be pursued independently in both economies. In addition, the bidirectional causality detected for Nigeria suggests that the policy objectives of trade liberalization and economic growth can be pursued together in Nigeria. Furthermore, the unidirectional causality from trade liberalization to real gross domestic product per capita found for Turkey implies that she employs trade liberalization policies effectively for objectives of economic growth, thus trade liberalization causes economic growth.

Introduction and Overview

The world economy was severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It was estimated that the annual growth in the world’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 would be $$-3.3$$ - 3.3 % (International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2021). World trade simultaneously contracted sharply.

Relationship between Air Passenger Transport, Tourism and Real Gross Domestic Product in Africa: A Longitudinal mediation analysis

This paper analysed the relationships between air passenger transport, tourism and real gross domestic product per capita (rGDPpc) in Africa. Mediation models were analysed using the structural equation modelling approach. This analysis determined the role of a mediator variable in the relationship between dependent and independent variables. Bi-directional positive relationships were found between air passenger transport and rGDPpc, tourism and rGDPpc, followed by air passenger transport and tourism. A certain proportion of air passenger transport’s total effect on rGDPpc was from increased tourism, and some of the rGDPpc’s total effect on air passenger transport were from increased tourism. A sizable effect of tourism on rGDPpc was derived from increased air passenger transport, and a larger portion of rGDPpc’s total effect on tourism was from increased air passenger transport. These percentages show the strength of the mediation (or indirect) paths. The findings imply that it is vital to consider harmonised or integrated policies that facilitate the linkages between air passenger transport, tourism and rGDPpc. Novel in this study, is the scrutiny of the interrelationships between air passenger transport, tourism and rGDPpc in Africa, using longitudinal mediation analysis.

Evaluation of the Impacts of Non-Oil Exports on Economic Growth in Nigeria Between 1986-2018

Non-oil exports have been seen to be very vital in economic growth and development, especially for developing economics. Despite the poor contribution of non-oil exports to economic growth in Nigeria, this study is inspired by the inconsistencies in empirical findings regarding the connection and effect of non-oil exports on the economy. The objective of the study was to determine the effect of non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria. An ex-post facto research design was adopted. The time frame of thirty three (33) years, from 1986 to 2018 was adopted to allow for a large number of observations which will improve the robustness of the results. The data was obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin of 2017. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation technique was applied in guesstimating the models. E – views 9.0 was the econometric software used for the analysis. The result revealed that non-oil exports have no significant effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product, agricultural contribution to real gross domestic product is not significantly affected by exports of non-oil products even though there is evidence of a positive but insignificant correlation between them. Manufacturing capacity utilization is not significantly influenced by variation in Nigeria’s non-oil exports. Non-oil exports are positively associated with manufacturing capacity utilization. Economic growth in Nigeria has not been significantly affected by non-oil exports despite the various non-oil promotion strategies by the government. We recommend that cost and access to financial services for non-oil exporters be moderate or relaxed.

Monetary Policy Variables Relevance on Balance of Payments Adjustment in Nigeria 1980-2020

This study examines monetary policy relevance on the Nigerian balance of payments adjustment, form 1980-2020. Objectives are; to examine the relevance of monetary policy variables such as Exchange rate, Inflation rate, Balance of trade, Real Gross Domestic Product and Domestic Credit on the Nigerian balance of payments adjustment. Evaluate the significant speed of adjustment of monetary policy variables such as Exchange rate, Inflation rate, Balance of trade, Real Gross Domestic Product and Domestic Credit on the balance of payments adjustment within the period under study. The study employed the following advanced econometric techniques; Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests, chow test, ECM model OLS model, statistical tests & Co-integration test. Based on the above econometric techniques conducted, it was observed that group unit root test result shows that variables used in the study became stationary after the first differenced at degree of order one I(I). There is Co-integration (long run relations) among variables used in the study. Our results indicated rejection of the two null hypotheses of this study and acceptation of the alternative three hypotheses that said; Nigerian monetary policy variables such as Exchange rate, Inflation rate, Balance of trade and Domestic Credit have significant relevance on the Nigerian balance of payments adjustment. Nigerian monetary policy variables used have significantly three years to adjust balance of payments adjustment in the Nigerian economy within the period of the study. The researcher recommends that; the need to manage domestic liquidity wisely in view of the tremendous pressure on the balance of payments of excess money. A determined effort to mobilize resources through private saving and the implementation of a prudent fiscal policy through efficient collection of tax revenues, rationalization of government expenditure towards growth enhancing and poverty reduction programmes will also enable the government to pursue its development programs without having to rely on the monetization of its budget deficit. Overall concentration on monetary tools solely should be reduced and employ other policy instruments to correct the balance of payment fluctuation. The government should also be cautious of budget deficit that are often time financed by internal borrowings.

The Economy of Greece and the FIFA Ranking of its National Football Team

The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of the Greek economy with the FIFA ranking of the Greek National Football Team in order to find out whether there exists some sort of statistical association. The period under consideration starts with the establishment of the European and Monetary Union in 1992 and ends with the current year of 2021. In 1992, FIFA started to rank national football teams which restricts the extent of time to be used in this study. The descriptive evidence presented in this paper shows that there exists strong positive association between the level of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Greece and the ranking of its national football team. Keywords: FIFA, Greece, Football, GDP, European Union, National Teams.

Impact of Domestic Industrial Output on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Purpose: This paper examined the potential of domestic industrial output on economic growth in Nigeria. Approach/ Methodology/ Design: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model procedure was employed for data analysis. Findings: The results revealed that the contribution of the domestic industrial output to economic growth was appalling which was necessitated by the worrisome image of “Made-in-Nigeria” goods. It was also showed that the results that domestic industrial output and domestic savings have positive relationships with real gross domestic product (RGDP) in the long run. This implies that a rise in the level of each of domestic output and domestic savings necessitated an increase in real gross domestic product (RGDP). Practical Implication: The implication presented in this study is related to the concerned authorities. The results indicate the need for diverse domestic production in order to achieve a healthy competition in the industrial sector in the country. Originality/Value: The study innovates by employing various statistical tools for exploring the effect of domestic industrial output on economic growth. The significant contribution of this study is in identifying that domestic production in Nigeria has been lagged behind in terms of output performance in the economy.