scholarly journals On the order of integration of monthly US ex-ante and ex-post real interest rates: New evidence from over a century of data

2006 ◽  
Vol 90 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Karanasos ◽  
S.H. Sekioua ◽  
N. Zeng

This article constructs a 10-year realized term premium from the 10-year zero coupon Treasury yield in year 1 and the ex post three-month Treasury yields from years 1 to 10. The realized term premium swung wildly until the mid-1980s, and then fluctuated within a fairly stable range showing no trend. In comparison, the term premium derived from surveys of interest rate forecasts (survey-based term premium) was substantially lower than the realized term premium and trended downward since the early 1990s. The large and systematic forecast errors in combination with the stability of the realized term premium suggest possibilities that professional forecasters might have missed the term premium demanded by investors (ex ante term premium) by a wide margin and/or that investors forecast the future paths of interest rates more accurately than professional forecasters. It is also unclear that the survey-based term premium fairly represents the professional forecasters’ estimate of the ex ante term premium, not to mention the ex ante term premium itself. While it would be a daunting task to verify these possibilities, it is fairly clear that surveys of interest rate forecasts are of limited value as an investment guide.


1988 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 19-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Havrilesky

Abstract No abstract available.


2001 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 713-718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li-Hsueh Chen

2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 391-401
Author(s):  
Joshua A. Strayhorn

The U.S. Courts of Appeals must ordinarily convene en banc to overturn circuit law. However, roughly half of the circuit courts have adopted an alternative, less costly procedure, the informal en banc, where three-judge panels may overturn precedent with approval of the full circuit. This article leverages variation in adoption and implementation of this institution to analyze the implications of ex post oversight mechanisms for ex ante panel decision making. The evidence suggests that the informal en banc substantially reduces the impact of ideology on panel decision making, providing new evidence that lower court judges strategically alter their behavior in anticipation of potential override by circuit colleagues.


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