What Accounts for the German Labor Market Miracle? A Structural VAR Approach

This study examines the driving forces behind the strong decline in German unemployment from 2005 onwards and the exceptionally small increase during the Great Recession. Structural vector autoregressions (VARs) with sign restrictions show that wage moderation in the aftermath of labor market reforms was the dominant factor of the unemployment decline, and that improved matching and shrinking labor supply also contributed to it. The adjustment to business cycle shocks (Great Recession), on the other hand, is to a large extent borne by the intensive margin, which can be explained by institutional aspects of the German labor market.

Rural Structural Transformation and Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria

Rural structural transformation is best defined as structural changes in the rural areas occasioned by government policies and programmes with the intention of altering the contributions of major sector of the economy for the enhancement of agricultural sector. The study aimed at investigating the impact of rural structural transformation on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. The methodology adopted for the study was Structural Autoregression (SVAR). Six variables of expenditure on education (EXPE), expenditure on health (EXPH), expenditure on electricity (EXPEL), expenditure on telecommunication (EXPTC), expenditure on roads and construction (EXPRC) and expenditure on agriculture (EXPA). Of the six explanatory variables only expenditure on agriculture was found to be negatively related to agricultural productivity, while the others were positively related to it. Several reasons of which of official corruption by the handlers of agricultural funds could possibly be one of the reasons for the negative relationship between expenditure on agriculture and agricultural productivity. Among many other recommendations was the need to provide clinics and health centres to the rural areas, provision of good and accessible roads, provision of electricity and internet facilities. This will act as motivating factors in curbing rural-urban migration, and by extension improve the lots of agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Keywords: rural, structural transformation, agricultural productivity, agricultural policies and structural VAR

The Life Cycle Hypothesis and Uncertainty: Analyzing Aging Savings Relationship in Tunisia

This research empirically checks the effect of uncertainty on aging-saving link that is indirectly captured by an auxiliary variable: the unemployment. It looks at the nexus population aging and savings by bringing out the unemployment context importance in determination saving behavior notably in a setting of unavailability of unemployment allowance. To better estimate population aging, it considers the old-age dependency ratio besides the total dependency one, which is the usually indicator used. Applying the Structural VAR model, the variance decomposition technique and the response impulse function, on Tunisia during 1970–2019, it puts on show that elderly do not dissave in a context of enduring unemployment and unavailability of unemployment allowance. Unemployment is an important factor able to shaping the saving behavior and to distort the life cycle hypothesis’s prediction. Consequently, the life cycle hypothesis cannot be validated under uncertainty. Hence, aging does not to alter savings systematically. The nature of aging-saving relationship is upon to social and economic context.

The dynamics of survey-based household inflation expectations in India

PurposeThe authors analyze households' inflation expectations data for India, collected quarterly by the RBI for more than a decade. The contribution of this paper lies in two folds. First, this study examines the relationship between relatively recent inflation expectations survey of households (IESH) and the actual inflation for India. Secondly, the authors employ a structural VAR with the time period 2006 Q2 to 2020 Q2 on inflation expectation survey data of India. A short-term non-recursive restriction is imposed in the model in order to capture the simultaneous co-dependence causal effect of inflation expectation and realized inflation.Design/methodology/approachThis paper studies the dynamic behavior of inflation expectations survey data in two folds. First, the authors analyze the time series property of the survey data. The authors begin with testing the stationarity property of the series, followed by the casual relationship between the expected and actual inflation. The authors further examine the short-run and long-run behavior of the IESH with actual inflation. Employing autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen co-integration, the authors tested if a long-run relationship exists between the variables. In the second approach, the authors investigate the determinants of inflation expectations by employing a non-recursive SVAR model.FindingsThe preliminary explanatory test reveals that inflation expectation is a policy variable and should be used in monetary policy as an instrument variable. The model identifies the price puzzle for India. The authors find that the response of inflation to a monetary policy shock is neutral. The results also indicate that the expectations of the general public are self-fulfilling.Originality/valueIESH has only commenced from September 2005, hence is relatively new as compared to other survey in developed countries. Being a new data set so far, the authors could not locate any study devoted in analyzing the behavior of the data with other macroeconomic variables.

An Investigation into the Sources of Depreciations in Mongolian Tugrik Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Approach

This paper empirically investigates the sources of fluctuations in real and nominal Mongolian Tugrik (MNT) exchange rates by estimating the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model over the period January 1994–May 2021 and decomposing the exchange rate series into stochastic components induced by real and nominal shocks under the assumption of the long-run neutrality of nominal shocks on the real exchange rate level. The empirical results show that the real MNT exchange rate movements are primarily due to the real shocks, while the nominal shocks have a major role in explaining nominal exchange rate movements in the short and long run. The nominal exchange rate shows a delayed over-shooting occurring between one and three years after a nominal shock hits the economy. The long-run effect of a monthly one standard deviation nominal shock on nominal MNT exchange rate is 2.5%, which results in a permanent divergence between real and nominal MNT exchange rate and causes non-cointegrated relation between real and nominal MNT exchange rates. The historical decomposition of forecast error indicates that the nominal shock plays a significant role in explaining the depreciation in nominal MNT exchange rate over the last three decades. Our recommendation is to stop “cash handling” policy, minimize monetary shock, and coordinate fiscal and monetary policies to avoid large nominal depreciation.

Crude oil futures to manage the price risk of natural rubber: Empirical evidence from India

The trading of natural rubber derivatives in the Indian commodity exchanges was banned several times in the past. Hence, in India, the derivatives on natural rubber are not traded actively and regularly. We have examined the possibility of a forecast model and a cross hedge tool for the natural rubber price by using crude oil futures in India. Results of the Johansen cointegration test proved that there is no cointegration equation in the model; hence, there is no scope to develop long-run models or error correction models. We have developed a vector autoregressive [VAR(2)] model to forecast the rubber price, and we examined the possibility of a cross hedge for natural rubber further by using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Granger causality test. We have extended our research to a structural VAR analysis to examine the effect of crude futures and exchange rate shocks on the natural rubber price. Our results showed that there is a short-term relationship between the crude oil futures price, the exchange rates of the US dollar to the Indian rupee, the Malaysian ringgit to the Indian rupee and the Thai baht to the Indian rupee; and the natural rubber price in India. The effort of policymakers to cause the Indian rupee to appreciate against the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit may increase the natural rubber price in India. Natural rubber traders, growers and consumers can use crude futures to hedge the price risk. The Indian Rubber Board can suggest the VAR(2) model to predict the short-run price for natural rubber.

Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis

We investigate whether the Federal Reserve has responded systematically to house and stock prices and whether this response has changed over time using a Bayesian structural VAR model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. To recover the systematic component of monetary policy, we interpret the interest rate equation in the VAR as an extended monetary policy rule responding to ination, the output gap, house prices and stock prices. Our results indicate that the systematic component of monetary policy in the U.S. responded to real stock price growth significantly but episodically, mainly around recessions and periods of financial instability, and took real house price growth into account only in the years preceding the Great Recession. Around half of the estimated response captures the predictor role of asset prices for future ination and real economic activity, while the remaining component reects a direct response to stock prices and house prices.

An evaluation of Nigerian timber production and forest reserves: focus on economic implications of food security, 1981 - 2014

The place of timber and forest reserves to national development cannot be neglected. This study evaluates level of timber production and forests reserves as well as its implications for food security in Nigeria from 1981 to 2014. The objective of the study is to evaluate the significant impact of timber production and forests reserves on food security in Nigeria. In an attempt to examine this, error correction model diagnostic tests process ECM, ADF unit root test, Structural VAR approach, and Co-integration test were employed in the data analysis. The research findings revealed that timber production and forests reserves have significant impact on food security in Nigerian economy within the period under review. In the light of the research findings, the researcher recommends that Timber production and forests reserves should be strengthened to increase the effect of forests reserves on food security in the country. This can be achieved through increased productivity and the development of agriculture value chain in federal government policy and implementation process.

Frustration in Oil Market Price Effect on External Reserves in Nigeria 1970-2017

This study examines frustration in oil market price shock effect on external reserves Nigeria 1970-2019. Objectives are; to examine frustration in oil market price shock on the Nigerian external reserves 1970 to 2019 and to ascertain the impact of frustration in oil price on the Nigerian external reserves. The study employed the following advanced econometric techniques; Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests, Structural VAR approach, Choleski decomposition and Imposing Short-run Restrictions test, statistical tests & Co-integration test. Based on the above econometric techniques conducted, it was observed that all the variables used became stationary after the first differences at degree of order one I (I). There is Co-integration (long run relations) among variables used in the study. Our results indicated that oil price does significantly influence shocks on external reserves in Nigeria the period of the study. Furthermore, frustration in oil price does insignificantly have impact on the external reserves in Nigeria from 1970 to 2019. The researcher recommends that; less emphasis of control should be placed on international market oil price since the oil price has 81% influences of international market externalities ‘shock on Nigeria external reserves. Rather, more emphasis should be place on other non-oil sector contributions to Nigeria external reserves since it may has virtually neutral or significant internal control that could lend to positive effect on external reserves in Nigeria. Direct manipulation of cured oil production and supply control policy should be Nigeria interest since Nigeria economy operates system of floating exchange rates