scholarly journals Economic policy uncertainty, financial markets and probability of US recessions

2014 ◽  
Vol 125 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lilia Karnizova ◽  
Jiaxiong (Chris) Li
Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Zongxin Zhang ◽  
Ying Chen ◽  
Weijie Hou

The global financial market shocks have intensified due to the COVID-19 epidemic and other impacts, and the impacts of economic policy uncertainty on the financial system cannot be ignored. In this paper, we construct asymmetric risk spillover networks of Chinese financial markets based on five sectors: bank, securities, insurance, diversified finance, and real estate. We investigate the complexity of the risk spillover effect of Chinese financial markets and the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the level of network contagion of financial risk. The study yields three findings. First, the cross-sectoral risk spillover effects of Chinese financial markets are asymmetric in intensity. The bank sector is systemically important in the risk spillover network. Second, the level of risk stress in the real estate sector has increased in recent years, and it plays an important role in the path of financial risk contagion. Third, Economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on the level of network contagion of financial risk of Chinese financial markets.


2019 ◽  
Vol 83 ◽  
pp. 375-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu ◽  
Riza Demirer ◽  
Ibrahim D. Raheem ◽  
Aviral Kumar Tiwari

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0259303
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Asafo-Adjei ◽  
Ebenezer Boateng ◽  
Zangina Isshaq ◽  
Anthony Adu-Asare Idun ◽  
Peterson Owusu Junior ◽  
...  

The study aims to shed new lights on the lead-lag relationships between the financial sector (RFSI) and economic growth (GDP) in the midst of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) shocks for BRICS economies. Hence, the bivariate, partial, and wavelet multiple correlations techniques are employed. From the bivariate analysis, we document positive bi-directional causality between the RFSI and economic growth over the sample period. The partial wavelet reveals that GEPU shocks distort the significance and directional comovements between the RFSI and GDP. Moreover, the outcome from the wavelet multiple cross correlations (WMCC) indicates that the RFSI is a first mover at most time scales for the BRICS economies. This is followed by GEPU which either leads or lags for most scales, especially for South Africa. The impact of GEPU on RFSI and GDP is worst for South Africa in about four cases in the medium-, and long-terms. This signifies that South Africa’s financial markets and economic growth are vulnerable to GEPU. However, the impetus for GEPU to drive the comovements between the financial sector and economic activity was less pronounced in the pre-COVID analysis conducted with the WMCC. The study supports both the supply-leading and demand-following hypotheses. Our findings also underscore the need for policymakers, investors and academics alike to incessantly observe the dynamics between finance and growth across time and periodicity while considering adverse shocks from global economic policy uncertainty in tandem.


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