Parametric model risk and power plant valuation

2016 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 423-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl Bannör ◽  
Rüdiger Kiesel ◽  
Anna Nazarova ◽  
Matthias Scherer
Author(s):  
Karl Bannor ◽  
Ruediger Kiesel ◽  
Anna Nazarova ◽  
Matthias A. Scherer

Author(s):  
Stathis Polyzos ◽  
Aggelos Armenatzoglou ◽  
Ioannis Kinias ◽  
Aristeidis Samitas
Keyword(s):  

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (07) ◽  
pp. 1650042 ◽  
Author(s):  
MATTHIAS SCHERER ◽  
THORSTEN SCHULZ

Recognizing counterparty default risk as integral part of the valuation process of financial derivatives has changed the classical view on option pricing. Calculating the bilateral credit valuation adjustment (BCVA) including wrong way risk (WWR) requires a sound model for the dependence structure between three quantities: the default times of the two contractual parties and the derivative/portfolio value at the first of the two default times. There exist various proposals, but no market consensus, on how this dependence structure should be modeled. Moreover, available mathematical tools depend strongly on the marginal models for the default times and the model for the underlying of the derivative. In practice, independence between all (or some) quantities is still a popular (over-)simplification, which completely misses the root of WWR. In any case, specifying the dependence structure imposes one to model risk and even within some parametric model one typically obtains a considerable interval of BCVA values when the parameters are taken to the extremes. In this work, we present a model-free approach to identify the dependence structure that implies the extremes of BCVA. This is achieved by solving a mass-transportation problem using tools from optimization.


Author(s):  
S. Can Gülen ◽  
Ann V. Driscoll

Even though almost all components of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plant are proven and mature technologies, the sheer number of them, the wide variety of competing technologies (e.g., gasifiers, gas clean-up systems, heat recovery options), system integration options (e.g., cryogenic air separation unit and the gas turbine) including the recent addition of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) with its own technology and integration options render fundamental IGCC performance analysis a monumental task. Almost all published studies utilize highly complex chemical process and power plant heat balance software, including commercially available packages and in-house proprietary codes. This makes an objective assessment of comparable IGCC plant designs, performance (and cost) and other perceived advantage claims (IGCC versus other technologies, too) very difficult if not impossible. This paper develops a coherent simplified parametric model based on fully physics-based grounds to be used for quick design performance assessment of a large variety of IGCC power plants with and without CCS. Technology parameters are established from complex model runs and supplemented by extensive literature search. The model is tested using published data to establish its confidence interval and is satisfactory to carry conceptual design analysis at a high level to identify promising alternatives, development areas and assess the realism in competing claims.


2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 191-205
Author(s):  
Dariusz Michalski

Traditional way of companies valuation based on discounted cash-flows do not consider the value of flexibility that managers can create. The objective of this article is the presentation of the theoretical aspects of companies valuation with real option’s approach and DCF method. The case study regards the power plant valuation. Author took assumptions that valuation method based only on DCF do not considers in proper way the flexibility connected to future companies activity. The development of valuation method by real option approach can complete these deficiencies in random environment.


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