Valuation and Returns of Drug Development Companies: Lessons for Bioentrepreneurs and Investors

Objectives This study evaluates the association of Biopharma company valuation with the lead drug’s development stage, orphan status, number of indications, and disease area. We also estimated annual returns Bioentrepreneurs and investors can expect from founding and investing in drug development ventures. Methods SDC Thomson Reuter and S&P Capital IQ were screened for majority acquisitions of US and EU Biopharma companies developing new molecular entities for prescription use (SIC code: 2834). Acquisition data were complemented with drug characteristics extracted from clinicaltrials.gov, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and deal announcements. Thereafter, company valuations were combined with previously published clinical development periods alongside orphan-, indication-, and disease-specific success rates to estimate annual returns for investments in drug developing companies. Results Based on a sample of 311 Biopharma acquisitions from 2005 to 2020, companies developing orphan, multi-indication, and oncology drugs were valued significantly higher than their peers during later development stages (p < 0.05). We also estimated significantly higher returns for shareholders of companies with orphan relative to non-orphan-designated lead drugs from Phase 1 to FDA approval (46% vs. 12%, p < 0.001). Drugs developed across multiple indications also provided higher returns than single-indication agents from Pre-Clinic to FDA approval (21% vs. 11%, p < 0.001). Returns for oncology drugs exceeded other disease areas (26% vs. 8%, p < 0.001). Conclusions Clinical and economic conditions surrounding orphan-designated drugs translate to a favorable financial risk-return profile for Bioentrepreneurs and investors. Bioentrepreneurs must be aware of the upside real option value their multi-indication drug could offer when negotiating acquisition or licensing agreements.

VIRTUAL ARRIVAL: A REAL OPTION FOR ENERGY SAVING

Here is timely guidance for the ship operator when considering a strategy to avoid port delays. The case study also offers a commendably comprehensive template for those examining a specific ship and route.

VIRTUAL ARRIVAL: A REAL OPTION FOR ENERGY SAVING?

The maritime traffic is the real backbone of the international transport of goods in the world and it is driven by a severe observance of time scheduling. Nevertheless, mainly in relation with the most traveled routes, frequently it might happen that port facilities are congested, and the time schedule for ship load/unload operations is accordingly delayed. In this circumstance the choice is between meeting the original ETA (estimated time of arrival) and then let the ship riding at anchor or slowing down the ship in order to adjust the arrival to the actually needed time window. The latter option is called "Virtual Arrival"[1] because it consists of applying a speed reduction that fits the new time for port operations instead of arriving at the original ETA. The purpose of this paper is to investigate to what extent the Virtual Arrival policy could be a valuable option providing a reasonable energy saving for ships. The potential benefits are considerable and they result in direct saving in fuel consumption, reduction of CO2 emissions and less congested port areas.

The Optimistic View to Uncertainty. Benefits of Real Option Valuation Methodology in Project Valuation; Example of its Application for a Rail Terminal Modification Project

The two main factors that drive the shift to liquid cracking in the Middle East are the restricted availability of ethane and the fact that naphtha or mixed feed cracking provides us with a much more diverse product mix. This opens the path to a higher share of performance chemicals. Building petrochemical complexes based on liquid or mixed feed cracking requires very complicated downstream configurations at a high level of integration with refinery streams. The value created by such a project rests on the ability of the operator to solve complex optimization problems in a volatile market environment. Inevitably, the correctness of the investment decision rests on the ability of the management to determine the value of the project under conditions of uncertainty regarding the future market prices. This paper demonstrates how the approach that was developed originally for the option valuation, can be used to address the problem of project assessment under the conditions of uncertainty. A real-life example of an investment decision about a modification of a rail terminal is used to illustrate the problem and to present a solution to it. Building on this example further, the paper argues that the method of Real Option valuation can support a creation of a competitive advantage in the conditions of uncertainty.

Replacement Analysis of Mutually Exclusive Projects of Unequal Lives Using Kelly Specific Real Option Criterion

This paper presents a model to address the uncertainty inherent in replacement problems, whereby a firm must select between mutually exclusive projects of unequal lifespans by applying the Kelly criterion (which is not well known to the engineering economics community) within a binomial lattice option-pricing environment. Assuming that only the interest rate, among many factors, is uncertain, Brown and Davis performed an economic analysis of this problem by employing a real option-pricing method and argued that their model yields results opposite to those yielded by the traditional approach. However, the results yielded by the model proposed herein are consistent with those by the traditional approach, unlike Brown and Davis’s model. The conclusion is that since the investment time horizon is infinite, a firm rationale pertaining to the selection of the best method for the investment problem of such types does not exist.

Optimal Short-Termism

This paper develops a dynamic contracting (multitasking) model of a levered firm. In particular, the manager selects long-term and short-term efforts, and shareholders choose optimal debt and default policies. Excessive short-termism ex post is optimal for shareholders because debt has an asymmetric effect: shareholders receive all gains from short-term effort but share gains from long-term effort. We find that grim growth prospects and shareholder impatience imply higher optimal levels of short-termism. Also, an incentive cost effect and a real option effect create nontrivial patterns for the endogenous default threshold. Finally, we quantify agency costs of excessive short-termism, which underscore the economic significance of our results. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.