A novel multi-stage ensemble model with enhanced outlier adaptation for credit scoring

2021 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 113872
Author(s):  
Wenyu Zhang ◽  
Dongqi Yang ◽  
Shuai Zhang ◽  
Jose H. Ablanedo-Rosas ◽  
Xin Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Multi Stage

A novel multi-stage ensemble model with multiple K-means-based selective undersampling: An application in credit scoring

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 9471-9484
Author(s):  
Yilun Jin ◽  
Yanan Liu ◽  
Wenyu Zhang ◽  
Shuai Zhang ◽  
Yu Lou
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Imbalanced Data ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Selective Sampling ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
New Feature

With the advancement of machine learning, credit scoring can be performed better. As one of the widely recognized machine learning methods, ensemble learning has demonstrated significant improvements in the predictive accuracy over individual machine learning models for credit scoring. This study proposes a novel multi-stage ensemble model with multiple K-means-based selective undersampling for credit scoring. First, a new multiple K-means-based undersampling method is proposed to deal with the imbalanced data. Then, a new selective sampling mechanism is proposed to select the better-performing base classifiers adaptively. Finally, a new feature-enhanced stacking method is proposed to construct an effective ensemble model by composing the shortlisted base classifiers. In the experiments, four datasets with four evaluation indicators are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed model, and the experimental results prove the superiority of the proposed model over other benchmark models.

A novel multi-stage ensemble model for credit scoring based on synthetic sampling and feature transformation

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Fang He ◽  
Wenyu Zhang ◽  
Zhijia Yan
Keyword(s):  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Imbalanced Data ◽  
Transformation Method ◽  
Classification Performance ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Feature Transformation ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Scoring Model ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Credit Scoring Model

Credit scoring has become increasingly important for financial institutions. With the advancement of artificial intelligence, machine learning methods, especially ensemble learning methods, have become increasingly popular for credit scoring. However, the problems of imbalanced data distribution and underutilized feature information have not been well addressed sufficiently. To make the credit scoring model more adaptable to imbalanced datasets, the original model-based synthetic sampling method is extended herein to balance the datasets by generating appropriate minority samples to alleviate class overlap. To enable the credit scoring model to extract inherent correlations from features, a new bagging-based feature transformation method is proposed, which transforms features using a tree-based algorithm and selects features using the chi-square statistic. Furthermore, a two-layer ensemble method that combines the advantages of dynamic ensemble selection and stacking is proposed to improve the classification performance of the proposed multi-stage ensemble model. Finally, four standardized datasets are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed ensemble model using six evaluation metrics. The experimental results confirm that the proposed ensemble model is effective in improving classification performance and is superior to other benchmark models.

scholarly journals A Multi-Stage Self-Adaptive Classifier Ensemble Model With Application in Credit Scoring

IEEE Access ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 78549-78559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Guo ◽  
Hongliang He ◽  
Xiaoling Huang
Keyword(s):  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Classifier Ensemble ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Self Adaptive

A novel multi-stage ensemble model with fuzzy clustering and optimized classifier composition for corporate bankruptcy prediction

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Dongqi Yang ◽  
Wenyu Zhang ◽  
Xin Wu ◽  
Jose H. Ablanedo-Rosas ◽  
Lingxiao Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Clustering ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Selection Method ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Composition Method ◽  
Classifier Selection ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Proposed Model

With the rapid development of commercial credit mechanisms, credit funds have become fundamental in promoting the development of manufacturing corporations. However, large-scale, imbalanced credit application information poses a challenge to accurate bankruptcy predictions. A novel multi-stage ensemble model with fuzzy clustering and optimized classifier composition is proposed herein by combining the fuzzy clustering-based classifier selection method, the random subspace (RS)-based classifier composition method, and the genetic algorithm (GA)-based classifier compositional optimization method to achieve accuracy in predicting bankruptcy among corporates. To overcome the inherent inflexibility of traditional hard clustering methods, a new fuzzy clustering-based classifier selection method is proposed based on the mini-batch k-means algorithm to obtain the best performing base classifiers for generating classifier compositions. The RS-based classifier composition method was applied to enhance the robustness of candidate classifier compositions by randomly selecting several subspaces in the original feature space. The GA-based classifier compositional optimization method was applied to optimize the parameters of the promising classifier composition through the iterative mechanism of the GA. Finally, six datasets collected from the real world were tested with four evaluation indicators to assess the performance of the proposed model. The experimental results showed that the proposed model outperformed the benchmark models with higher predictive accuracy and efficiency.

An Ensemble Learning Model Based on SOM-SVM Model for Personal Credit Risk

2011 ◽  
Vol 271-273 ◽  
pp. 1286-1290
Author(s):  
Yan Feng Guo ◽  
Na Sun ◽  
Yuan Yao
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Experimental Result ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Personal Credit ◽  
Svm Model ◽  
Management Area

Credit risk problem is an essential problem in financial management area. People usually employ personal credit scoring to avoid financial risk problem. Although many methods have been proposed for evaluating the personal credit scoring and obtained good effects, most of these methods were called single model types, which would be disturbed by model self-parameter, data noise and other external factors. In order to overcome the weakness of single model, we believe one of best ways is to construct an ensemble model. In this paper, we proposed a new style of ensemble model and employed two public credit datasets to certify the validity of our ensemble model. The experimental result shows that the ensemble SOM-SVM model can overcome the single model weakness and improve the accuracy of classification, which is good for constructing a better credit scoring system in future.

scholarly journals An implementation of ensemble methods, logistic regression, and neural network for default prediction in Peer-to-Peer lending

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-197
Author(s):  
Aneta Dzik-Walczak ◽  
Mateusz Heba
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Peer To Peer ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Peer Lending

Credit scoring has become an important issue because competition among financial institutions is intense and even a small improvement in predictive accuracy can result in significant savings. Financial institutions are looking for optimal strategies using credit scoring models. Therefore, credit scoring tools are extensively studied. As a result, various parametric statistical methods, non-parametric statistical tools and soft computing approaches have been developed to improve the accuracy of credit scoring models. In this paper, different approaches are used to classify customers into those who repay the loan and those who default on a loan. The purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of two credit scoring techniques, the logistic regression model estimated on categorized variables modified with the use of WOE (Weight of Evidence) transformation, and neural networks. We also combine multiple classifiers and test whether ensemble learning has better performance. To evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of these methods, the analysis is performed on Lending Club data. In addition, we investigate Peer-to-peer lending, also called social lending. From the results, it can be concluded that the logistic regression model can provide better performance than neural networks. The proposed ensemble model (a combination of logistic regression and neural network by averaging the probabilities obtained from both models) has higher AUC, Gini coefficient and Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics compared to other models. Therefore, we can conclude that the ensemble model allows to successfully reduce the potential risks of losses due to misclassification costs.

scholarly journals One-Step Dynamic Classifier Ensemble Model for Customer Value Segmentation with Missing Values

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Jin Xiao ◽  
Bing Zhu ◽  
Geer Teng ◽  
Changzheng He ◽  
Dunhu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Customer Value ◽  
Missing Values ◽  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Customer Relationship ◽  
Classifier Ensemble ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Churn Prediction ◽  
Customer Data ◽  
Customer Churn ◽  
One Step

Scientific customer value segmentation (CVS) is the base of efficient customer relationship management, and customer credit scoring, fraud detection, and churn prediction all belong to CVS. In real CVS, the customer data usually include lots of missing values, which may affect the performance of CVS model greatly. This study proposes a one-step dynamic classifier ensemble model for missing values (ODCEM) model. On the one hand, ODCEM integrates the preprocess of missing values and the classification modeling into one step; on the other hand, it utilizes multiple classifiers ensemble technology in constructing the classification models. The empirical results in credit scoring dataset “German” from UCI and the real customer churn prediction dataset “China churn” show that the ODCEM outperforms four commonly used “two-step” models and the ensemble based model LMF and can provide better decision support for market managers.

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