Clariant significantly increased profitability in 2Q 2021 on the back of double-digit sales growth: 1H 2021 – Higher sales in all business areas and double-digit profitability improvement

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (9) ◽  
pp. 4
Keyword(s):  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Maria Barrero

This paper studies how biases in managerial beliefs affect managerial decisions, firm performance, and the macroeconomy. Using a new survey of US managers I establish three facts. (1) Managers are not over-optimistic: sales growth forecasts on average do not exceed realizations. (2) Managers are overprecise (overconfident): they underestimate future sales growth volatility. (3) Managers overextrapolate: their forecasts are too optimistic after positive shocks and too pessimistic after negative shocks. To quantify the implications of these facts, I estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model in which managers of heterogeneous firms use a subjective beliefs process to make forward-looking hiring decisions. Overprecision and overextrapolation lead managers to overreact to firm-level shocks and overspend on adjustment costs, destroying 2.1 percent of the typical firm’s value. Pervasive overreaction leads to excess volatility and reallocation, lowering consumer welfare by 0.5 to 2.3 percent relative to the rational expectations equilibrium. These findings suggest overreaction may amplify asset-price and business cycle fluctuations.


Author(s):  
Christopher Hood ◽  
Rozana Himaz

This chapter describes fiscal squeeze in an era of high political volatility and major economic challenges, including mass unemployment, a sharp increase in oil prices, double-digit inflation (i.e. a period of ‘stagflation’), and high levels of trade union militancy. The most dramatic period during the episode occurred in 1976, involving a split Labour Government under two different leaders, with a leadership election following a sudden prime ministerial resignation. That government pursued fiscal squeeze against the background of a deep currency crisis and bailout deals with outside lenders (the US Government and the IMF). The squeeze episode also led to some important institutional developments, producing the first major privatization since the 1950s and a new system of controlling public spending through ‘cash limits’.


2021 ◽  
pp. 146247452110060
Author(s):  
Amy E Lerman ◽  
Alyssa C Mooney

Nationwide, prison populations have declined nearly 5% from their peak, and 16 states have seen double-digit declines. It is unclear, though, how decarceration has affected racial disparities. Using national data, we find substantial variation in state prison populations from 2005–2018, with increases in some states and declines in others. However, although declines in the overall state prison population were associated with declines for all groups, states with rising prison populations experienced slight upticks in prison rates among the white population, while rates among Black and Latinx populations declined. As a result, greater progress in overall decarceration within states did not translate to larger reductions in racial disparities. At the same time, we do not find evidence that a decline in prison populations is associated with a rise in jail incarceration for any racial/ethnic group. In additional exploratory analyses, we suggest that recent incarceration trends may be driven by changes in returns to prison for probation and parole violations, rather than commitments for new crimes. Our results make clear that while efforts to reverse mass incarceration have reduced the size of prison populations in some states, they have not yet made substantial progress in resolving the crisis of race in American criminal justice.


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