Potential for Further Evolution of CRDs

Although Grondona prepared detailed guidelines that his system should be implemented in relation to durable, essential, basic imported commodities, he also understood that, once established successfully, CRDs' operations could evolve in various ways in order to achieve greater benefits. For example, the inclusion of precious metals such as gold and silver, albeit on a somewhat different basis than industrial commodities, is an interesting possibility. Grondona also recommended that other products such as basic manufactured components like standardised steel or aluminium strip could be included. Another potential evolution is a CRD's role in a currency crisis: a sudden change in the exchange rate would be countered to some extent by a CRD being asked to sell or buy commodities, which would tend to resist the initial change. A CRD's terms of operation might be adjusted in order to strengthen its influence as such a countermeasure.

The financial leverage–financial performance relationship in the emerging market of Turkey: the role of financial distress risk and currency crisis

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to examine how financial distress risk and currency crisis affect the relationship between financial leverage and financial performance.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses data of 200 firms listed on Istanbul Stock Exchange during the period from 2009 to 2019, resulting in 1950 firm-year observations. Pooled ordinary least squares, random effects, firm fixed effects and two-step system GMM models are used to investigate the hypotheses of this study.FindingsThe results reveal that financial leverage has negative and significant effect on financial performance, and that this effect is stronger for firms with higher financial distress risk. Furthermore, the findings provide moderate evidence that currency crisis exacerbates the negative association between leverage and performance.Practical implicationsThe results of this study have important implications for firms in emerging markets. Managers can enhance firm performance by reducing the level of financial leverage, especially in firms with higher financial distress risk. These firms incur higher debt costs, and then they can benefit more from the decreases in debt ratio in their capital structure. Moreover, the decreases in debt level have more importance in currency crisis times, when the access to external finance becomes more expensive and more difficult.Originality/valueTo the author's knowledge, this research is the first to examine the effect of currency crisis on the financial leverage–financial performance relationship and is one of few that investigate the role of financial distress risk in determining the linkage between leverage and firm performance.

immigration of Argentinean Jews to Winnipeg : Emigration and Successful Settlement

Manitoba has strategized from 2002 onwards to incorporate a free-market approach into Manitoba's Provincial Nominee Programme in order to fulfill its labour market goals. In the grand scheme of attracting new Argentinean Jewish immigrants, it was an opportunity for these people to leave their homeland that was suffering under an economic depression and a currency crisis. Both the provincial government (through the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Programme) and an ethno-cultural institution (the Jewish Federation of Winnipeg) forged a partnership that matched these immigrants with jobs and also helped integrate them into the Winnipeg Jewish community. Seventeen interviews of Argentinean Jews now living in Winnipeg explained how they had a choice of emigrating to Spain, Israel or the United States but they selected Winnipeg and they give their reasons for doing so.

immigration of Argentinean Jews to Winnipeg : Emigration and Successful Settlement

Manitoba has strategized from 2002 onwards to incorporate a free-market approach into Manitoba's Provincial Nominee Programme in order to fulfill its labour market goals. In the grand scheme of attracting new Argentinean Jewish immigrants, it was an opportunity for these people to leave their homeland that was suffering under an economic depression and a currency crisis. Both the provincial government (through the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Programme) and an ethno-cultural institution (the Jewish Federation of Winnipeg) forged a partnership that matched these immigrants with jobs and also helped integrate them into the Winnipeg Jewish community. Seventeen interviews of Argentinean Jews now living in Winnipeg explained how they had a choice of emigrating to Spain, Israel or the United States but they selected Winnipeg and they give their reasons for doing so.

Financial Crisis Early Warning Based on Panel Data and Dynamic Dual Choice Model

Based on the research of currency crisis pressure index, bank crisis pressure index, and asset bubble crisis pressure index, this paper introduces an external shock pressure index reflecting the impact of global economic changes on economy and synthesizes systemic financial crisis pressure based on the above four pressure indexes; then, all the alternative early warning indicators and the systemic risk pressure index constructed in this paper were tested for Granger causality. We build financial systemic risk pressure indexes, including currency crisis pressure (CCP) banking crisis pressure (BCP) index, bubble crisis pressure (PBP) index, and external shock pressure (ESP) index to predict financial crises. Finally, four indicators that have a significant impact on the systemic financial crisis pressure index were selected, namely, the stock price index change rate, industrial added value growth rate, domestic and foreign real deposit interest rate differential, and foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP. A dynamic Logit model with lagging binary variables is constructed, and compared with the traditional static Logit line, the actual dynamic fitting effect is better than the static Logit model. The dynamic Logit model is used to predict the early warning status of systemic financial crisis in 2020, and the forecast of various early warning indicators is realized by the ARIMA model. The final prediction results show that the probability of a systemic financial crisis in China in 2020 is extremely low, almost zero. This is in line with the overall improvement in the international economic situation in 2020 and the steady growth of the domestic economy.

Vulnerability Analysis of Macroeconomic Indicators for Early Detection of Currency Crisis: Case Study of Indonesian Economy on 1991–2019

The purpose of this study is to detect the currency crisis in Indonesia by exploring the vulnerability of macroeconomic variables. The Exchange Market Pressure Index was used to determine the crisis period by modeling the threshold value. Early indicators were determined using the signal analysis approach; therefore, the vulnerability level of each macroeconomic variable is known and used to determine the leading indicators. The result showed that the Signal Analysis and Herrera–Garcia approaches are the best detection models. Furthermore, it was concluded that the Signal Analysis approach was better in detecting crises compared to the Herrera–Garcia approach.