Burn probability simulation and subsequent wildland fire activity in Alberta, Canada – Implications for risk assessment and strategic planning: Reply to Parisien et al.

2020 ◽  
Vol 460 ◽  
pp. 117819
Author(s):  
Jennifer L. Beverly ◽  
Neal McLoughlin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Fire Activity

scholarly journals Application of Grounded Theory in Determining Required Elements for IPv6 Risk Assessment Equation

2018 ◽  
Vol 150 ◽  
pp. 06005
Author(s):  
Athirah Rosli ◽  
Abidah Mat Taib ◽  
Wan Nor Ashiqin Wan Ali ◽  
Ros Syamsul Hamid
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Grounded Theory ◽  
Network Security ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Internet Protocol ◽  
Network Environment ◽  
Ipv6 Network ◽  
Robust Network ◽  
Network Administrators

The deployment of Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) has raised security concerns among the network administrators. Thus, in strengthening the network security, administrator requires an appropriate method to assess the possible risks that occur in their networks. Aware of the needs to calculate risk in IPv6 network, it is essential to an organization to have an equation that is flexible and consider the requirements of the network. However, the existing risk assessment equations do not consider the requirement of the network. Therefore, this paper presents the adaptation of grounded theory to search for elements that are needed to develop IPv6 risk assessment (IRA6) equation. The attack scenarios’ experiments; UDP Flooding, TCP Flooding and Multicast attacks were carried out in different network environment to show how the IPv6 risk assessment equation being used. The result shows that the IRA6 equation is more flexible to be used regardless the network sizes and easier to calculate the risk value compared to the existing risk assessment equations. Hence, network administrators can have a proper decision making and strategic planning for a robust network security.

scholarly journals Generation and evaluation of an ensemble of wildland fire simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédéric Allaire ◽  
Jean-Baptiste Filippi ◽  
Vivien Mallet
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Probability Map ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Wildfire Spread ◽  
Fire Characteristics ◽  
Computational Resources ◽  
Ensemble Generation

Numerical simulations of wildfire spread can provide support in deciding firefighting actions but their predictive performance is challenged by the uncertainty of model inputs stemming from weather forecasts, fuel parameterisation and other fire characteristics. In this study, we assign probability distributions to the inputs and propagate the uncertainty by running hundreds of Monte Carlo simulations. The ensemble of simulations is summarised via a burn probability map whose evaluation based on the corresponding observed burned surface is not obvious. We define several properties and introduce probabilistic scores that are common in meteorological applications. Based on these elements, we evaluate the predictive performance of our ensembles for seven fires that occurred in Corsica from mid-2017 to early 2018. We obtain fair performance in some of the cases but accuracy and reliability of the forecasts can be improved. The ensemble generation can be accomplished in a reasonable amount of time and could be used in an operational context provided that sufficient computational resources are available. The proposed probabilistic scores are also appropriate in a calibration process to improve the ensembles.

Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Meg A. Krawchuk ◽  
William J. de Groot ◽  
B. Mike Wotton ◽  
Lynn M. Gowman
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Global Studies ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
General Increase ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Linear Interactions

Wildland fire is a global phenomenon, and a result of interactions between climate–weather, fuels and people. Our climate is changing rapidly primarily through the release of greenhouse gases that may have profound and possibly unexpected impacts on global fire activity. The present paper reviews the current understanding of what the future may bring with respect to wildland fire and discusses future options for research and management. To date, research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence but there is a lot of spatial variability, with some areas of no change or even decreases in area burned and occurrence. Fire seasons are lengthening for temperate and boreal regions and this trend should continue in a warmer world. Future trends of fire severity and intensity are difficult to determine owing to the complex and non-linear interactions between weather, vegetation and people. Improved fire data are required along with continued global studies that dynamically include weather, vegetation, people, and other disturbances. Lastly, we need more research on the role of policy, practices and human behaviour because most of the global fire activity is directly attributable to people.

Future burn probability in south-central British Columbia

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianli Wang ◽  
Marc-André Parisien ◽  
Stephen W. Taylor ◽  
Daniel D. B. Perrakis ◽  
John Little ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Forest Types ◽  
Top Down ◽  
South Central ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
The Future ◽  
Agents Of Change ◽  
Heterogeneous Region ◽  
Fire Ignition

Little is known about how changing climates will affect the processes controlling fire ignition and spread. This study examines the effect of climate change on the factors that drive fire activity in a highly heterogeneous region of south-central British Columbia. Future fire activity was evaluated using Burn-P3, a simulation model used to estimate spatial burn probability (BP) by simulating a very large number of fires. We modified the following factors in the future projections of BP: (1) fuels (vegetation), (2) ignitions (number of fires), and (3) weather (daily conditions and duration of fires). Our results showed that the future climate will increase the number of fires and fire-conducive weather, leading to widespread BP increases. However, the conversion of current forest types to vegetation that is not as flammable may partially counteract the effect of increasing fire weather severity. The top-down factors (ignitions and weather) yield future BPs that are spatially coherent with the current patterns, whereas the changes due to future vegetation are highly divergent from today’s BP. This study provides a framework for assessing the effect of specific agents of change on fire ignition and spread in landscapes with complex fire–climate–vegetation interactions.

Forest fire risk assessment using point process modelling of fire occurrence and Monte Carlo fire simulation

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 789 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyeyoung Woo ◽  
Woodam Chung ◽  
Jonathan M. Graham ◽  
Byungdoo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Occurrence Probability ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Forest Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Ignition

Risk assessment of forest fires requires an integrated estimation of fire occurrence probability and burn probability because fire spread is largely influenced by ignition locations as well as fuels, weather, topography and other environmental factors. This study aims to assess forest fire risk over a large forested landscape using both fire occurrence and burn probabilities. First, we use a spatial point processing method to generate a fire occurrence probability surface. We then perform a Monte Carlo fire spread simulation using multiple fire ignition points generated from the fire occurrence surface to compute burn probability across the landscape. Potential loss per land parcel due to forest fire is assessed as the combination of burn probability and government-appraised property values. We applied our methodology to the municipal boundary of Gyeongju in the Republic of Korea. The results show that the density of fire occurrence is positively associated with low elevation, moderate slope, coniferous land cover, distance to roads, high density of tombs and interaction among fire ignition locations. A correlation analysis among fire occurrence probability, burn probability, land property value and potential value loss indicates that fire risk in the study landscape is largely associated with the spatial pattern of burn probability.

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