Mechanism study of the 2010–2016 rapid rise of the Caribbean Sea Level

Regional sea level change and variability in the Caribbean sea since 1950We investigate the regional variability in sea level in the Caribbean Sea region over the past 60 years (1950-2009) using an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF)-based 2-dimensional past sea level reconstruction (a mean of 3 reconstructions based on few long tide gauge records and different sea level grids from satellite altimetry and ocean circulation models) and satellite altimetry data for the last two decades. We find that over the past 60 years, the mean rate of sea level rise in the region was similar to the global mean rise (~1.8 mm/yr). The interannual mean sea level of the placeCaribbean region appears highly correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices. Interpolation of the sea level reconstruction grid at different sites, in particular at the Caribbean Islands where tide gauge records are either very short or inexistent, shows that locally, the sea level trend is on the order of 2 mm/yr, i.e. only slightly larger than the mean trend over the region. Besides, correlation with ENSO is in general good, especially since the mid-1980s. We also find a significant correlation between the interannual variability in sea level and hurricane activity, especially over the past decade during which hurricane intensity and sea level interannual variability have both increased.

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Relative sea level highstands of the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, constrained by speleothem growth periods

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1678 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Simon Dominik Steidle ◽

Sophie Warken ◽

Norbert Frank ◽

Julius Förstel ◽

Nils Schorndorf ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Trace Element Analysis ◽

Caribbean Sea ◽

First Record ◽

Peak Height ◽

Planetary Science ◽

Scale Growth ◽

Relative Sea Level ◽

Element Analysis ◽

The Caribbean

The loading of the North American continent with ice sheets causes a geomorphologic response. As a result of this process, a NW-SE gradient of relative sea level developed in the Caribbean during periods of glaciation. In order to distinguish geomorphologic and eustatic contributions it is important to resolve timing and amplitude of relative sea level at different positions in the Caribbean.The cave systems around Tulum, Quintana Roo, Mexico are presently submerged and well-connected to the nearby Atlantic with a low hydraulic head gradient. Speleothems must have formed during periods of lower sea level, thus providing constraints on the maximum elevation of relative sea level for given periods of time. Conversely, periods of growth cessation could have been caused by sea level rise thus indicating minimum relative sea level during highstands.Here, we present 230Th/U dated submerged speleothems that grew during MIS5a-d as well as MIS1/2, MIS6 and MIS11/12.Growth of a single stalagmite (QUE01) at -10.8&#177;0.1m (relative to today's sea level) was interrupted twice. Petrographical studies and trace element analysis indicate that submergence caused millennial-scale growth stops in QUE01 during MIS5. The proposed highstands are between 109.4&#177;0.3ka and 105.0&#177;0.3ka as well as between 104.5&#177;0.4ka and 96.9&#177;0.4ka.While a previous study [1] constrains the amplitude to <9.9m, this study further improves the timing. This is the first record in this area that yields bracketing ages for those highstands from a speleothem that is very close to the peak height. In order to reconstruct a Caribbean sea level gradient, the combined Yucat&#225;n record acts as a counterpiece to a similar study from the northern end of the Caribbean sea level gradient which reports highstands at that time with a higher relative sea level [4].Speleothem growth during MIS1/2 (19-8ka) relates to conflicting local sea level markers [2,3] and contains century-scale growth stops. Samples dating back to MIS6 and MIS11/12 highlight the potential for sea level reconstruction in this area before MIS5.[1] Moseley et al. (2013) Journal of Quaternary Science 28 293-300 [2] Moseley et al. (2015) The Holocene 25 1511-1521 [3] Hering et al. (2018) Journal of Quaternary Science 33 444-454 [4] Wainer et al. (2017) Earth and Planetary Science Letters 457 325-334

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INFLUENCIA DEL RÍO SINÚ Y EL MAR CARIBE EN EL SISTEMA LAGUNAR DE CISPATÁ

Bulletin of Marine and Coastal Research ◽

10.25268/bimc.invemar.2008.37.1.180 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 37 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Mauricio Ruiz Ochoa ◽

Gladys Bernal ◽

Jaime Polanía

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Sea Level ◽

Caribbean Sea ◽

Data Logging ◽

Lagoon System ◽

Regulation Effect ◽

El Sistema ◽

The Caribbean ◽

The One ◽

Del Rio

The influence of the Sinú River and the Caribbean Sea over the Cispatá lagoon system was studied through annual and interannual analysis, as well as the tendency of hydrological (precipitation, discharge), and marine (SST, level) time series. The hydrological series were correlated with ONI, NAO and PDO macroclimatic indices, and, from data logging of flow stations down of Urrá I dam, their effects over the lagoon system were studied. No significant correlation between the precipitation and ENSO was found. The flow of the river basin highlands contribute with 50% of the one released. The flow coming into the lagoon system displayed a monomodal cycle. Positive flow anomalies were associated with La Niña, negative ones with El Niño. We found that the regulation effect on the flow by Urrá I is noticeable in the Angostura de Urrá, Pasacaballo, and Caño Grande stations, whereas in the Cotoca Abajo station it is not substantial. The sea level and the SST registered a 25 cm rise in 44 years, and one of 0.6 °C in 20 years, respectively. Four prospective scenarios on the river – sea influence over the lagoon system were presented, considering the sea level rise. The first two scenarios suppose that the communications between the Sinú River and the lagoon system will last; and the following two that one of the two arms of the river that feed the system will clog.

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Predictability of non-phase-locked baroclinic tides in the Caribbean Sea

Ocean Science ◽

10.5194/os-15-1287-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 15 (5) ◽

pp. 1287-1305

Author(s):

Edward D. Zaron

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Forecast Error ◽

Caribbean Sea ◽

Forecast Model ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽

Tide Gauges ◽

Sea Level Anomalies ◽

The Caribbean ◽

The Difference

Abstract. The predictability of the sea surface height expression of baroclinic tides is examined with 96 h forecasts produced by the AMSEAS operational forecast model during 2013–2014. The phase-locked tide, both barotropic and baroclinic, is identified by harmonic analysis of the 2-year record and found to agree well with observations from tide gauges and satellite altimetry within the Caribbean Sea. The non-phase-locked baroclinic tide, which is created by time-variable mesoscale stratification and currents, may be identified from residual sea level anomalies (SLAs) near the tidal frequencies. The predictability of the non-phase-locked tide is assessed by measuring the difference between a forecast – centered at T+36, T+60, or T+84 h – and the model's later verifying analysis for the same time. Within the Caribbean Sea, where a baroclinic tidal sea level range of ±5 cm is typical, the forecast error for the non-phase-locked tidal SLA is correlated with the forecast error for the subtidal (mesoscale) SLA. Root mean square values of the former range from 0.5 to 2 cm, while the latter ranges from 1 to 6 cm, for a typical 84 h forecast. The spatial and temporal variability of the forecast error is related to the dynamical origins of the non-phase-locked tide and is briefly surveyed within the model.

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Seasonal sea level cycle in the Caribbean Sea

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/2012jc008159 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 117 (C7) ◽

pp. n/a-n/a ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

R. Ricardo Torres ◽

Michael N. Tsimplis

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Caribbean Sea ◽

The Caribbean

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Predictability of Non-Phase-Locked Baroclinic Tides in the Caribbean Sea

10.5194/os-2019-53 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Edward D. Zaron

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Forecast Error ◽

Caribbean Sea ◽

Forecast Model ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽

Tide Gauges ◽

Sea Level Anomaly ◽

The Caribbean ◽

The Difference

Abstract. The predictability of the sea surface height expression of baroclinic tides is examined with 96 hr forecasts produced by the AMSEAS operational forecast model during 2013–2014. The phase-locked tide, both barotropic and baroclinic, is identified by harmonic analysis of the 2 year record and found to agree well with observations from tide gauges and satellite altimetry within the Caribbean Sea. The non-phase-locked baroclinic tide, which is created by the time-variable mesoscale stratification and currents, may be identified from residual sea level anomaly (SLA) near the tidal frequencies. The predictability of the non-phase-locked tide is assessed by measuring the difference between a forecast – centered at T+36 hr, T+60 hr, or T+84 hr – and the model's later verifying analysis for the same time. Within the Caribbean Sea, where a baroclinic tidal sea level range of ±5 cm is typical, the forecast error for the non-phase-locked tidal SLA is correlated with the forecast error for the sub-tidal (mesoscale) SLA. Root-mean-square values of the former range from 0.5 cm to 2 cm, while the latter ranges from 1 cm to 6 cm, for a typical 84 hr forecast. The spatial and temporal variability of the forecast error is related to the dynamical origins of the non-phase-locked tide and is briefly surveyed within the model.

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