A framework to evaluate and elucidate the driving mechanisms of coastal sea surface <i>p</i>CO₂ seasonality using an ocean general circulation model (MOM6-COBALT)

The temporal variability of the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and the underlying processes driving this variability are poorly understood in the coastal ocean. In this study, we tailor an existing method that quantifies the effects of thermal changes, biological activity, ocean circulation and freshwater fluxes to examine seasonal pCO2 changes in highly variable coastal environments. We first use the Modular Ocean Model version 6 (MOM6) and biogeochemical module Carbon Ocean Biogeochemistry And Lower Trophics version 2 (COBALTv2) at a half-degree resolution to simulate coastal CO2 dynamics and evaluate them against pCO2 from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas database (SOCAT) and from the continuous coastal pCO2 product generated from SOCAT by a two-step neuronal network interpolation method (coastal Self-Organizing Map Feed-Forward neural Network SOM-FFN, Laruelle et al., 2017). The MOM6-COBALT model reproduces the observed spatiotemporal variability not only in pCO2 but also in sea surface temperature, salinity and nutrients in most coastal environments, except in a few specific regions such as marginal seas. Based on this evaluation, we identify coastal regions of “high” and “medium” agreement between model and coastal SOM-FFN where the drivers of coastal pCO2 seasonal changes can be examined with reasonable confidence. Second, we apply our decomposition method in three contrasted coastal regions: an eastern (US East Coast) and a western (the Californian Current) boundary current and a polar coastal region (the Norwegian Basin). Results show that differences in pCO2 seasonality in the three regions are controlled by the balance between ocean circulation and biological and thermal changes. Circulation controls the pCO2 seasonality in the Californian Current; biological activity controls pCO2 in the Norwegian Basin; and the interplay between biological processes and thermal and circulation changes is key on the US East Coast. The refined approach presented here allows the attribution of pCO2 changes with small residual biases in the coastal ocean, allowing for future work on the mechanisms controlling coastal air–sea CO2 exchanges and how they are likely to be affected by future changes in sea surface temperature, hydrodynamics and biological dynamics.

Arctic sea level variability from high-resolution model simulations and implications for the Arctic observing system

Two high-resolution model simulations are used to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of the Arctic Ocean sea level. The model simulations reveal barotropic sea level variability at periods of < 30 d, which is strongly captured by bottom pressure observations. The seasonal sea level variability is driven by volume exchanges with the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and the redistribution of the water by the wind. Halosteric effects due to river runoff and evaporation minus precipitation ice melting/formation also contribute in the marginal seas and seasonal sea ice extent regions. In the central Arctic Ocean, especially the Canadian Basin, the decadal halosteric effect dominates sea level variability. The study confirms that satellite altimetric observations and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) could infer the total freshwater content changes in the Canadian Basin at periods longer than 1 year, but they are unable to depict the seasonal and subseasonal freshwater content changes. The increasing number of profiles seems to capture freshwater content changes since 2007, encouraging further data synthesis work with a more complicated interpolation method. Further, in situ hydrographic observations should be enhanced to reveal the freshwater budget and close the gaps between satellite altimetry and GRACE, especially in the marginal seas.

On the circulation, water mass distribution, and nutrient concentrations of the western Chukchi Sea

Substantial amounts of nutrients and carbon enter the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait, distributed over three main pathways. Water with low salinities and nutrient concentrations takes an eastern route along the Alaskan coast, as Alaskan Coastal Water. A central pathway exhibits intermediate salinity and nutrient concentrations, while the most nutrient-rich water enters the Bering Strait on its western side. Towards the Arctic Ocean, the flow of these water masses is subject to strong topographic steering within the Chukchi Sea with volume transport modulated by the wind field. In this contribution, we use data from several sections crossing Herald Canyon collected in 2008 and 2014 together with numerical modelling to investigate the circulation and transport in the western part of the Chukchi Sea. We find that a substantial fraction of water from the Chukchi Sea enters the East Siberian Sea south of Wrangel Island and circulates in an anticyclonic direction around the island. This water then contributes to the high-nutrient waters of Herald Canyon. The bottom of the canyon has the highest nutrient concentrations, likely as a result of addition from the degradation of organic matter at the sediment surface in the East Siberian Sea. The flux of nutrients (nitrate, phosphate, and silicate) and dissolved inorganic carbon in Bering Summer Water and Winter Water is computed by combining hydrographic and nutrient observations with geostrophic transport referenced to lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler (LADCP) and surface drift data. Even if there are some general similarities between the years, there are differences in both the temperature–salinity and nutrient characteristics. To assess these differences, and also to get a wider temporal and spatial view, numerical modelling results are applied. According to model results, high-frequency variability dominates the flow in Herald Canyon. This leads us to conclude that this region needs to be monitored over a longer time frame to deduce the temporal variability and potential trends.

Plastics in the Indian Ocean – sources, transport, distribution, and impacts

Plastic debris is the most common and exponentially increasing human pollutant in the world's ocean. The distribution and impact of plastic in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans have been the subject of many publications but not so the Indian Ocean (IO). Some of the IO rim countries have the highest population densities globally and mismanagement of plastic waste is of concern in many of these rim states. Some of the most plastic-polluted rivers empty into the IO, with all this suggesting that the IO receives a tremendous amount of plastic debris each year. However, the concentration, distribution, and impacts of plastics in the IO are poorly understood as the region is under-sampled compared to other oceans. In this review, we discuss sources and sinks, which are specific to the IO. We also discuss unique atmospheric, oceanographic, and topographic features of the IO that control plastic distribution, such as reversing wind directions due to the monsoon, fronts, and upwelling regions. We identify hotspots of possible plastic accumulation in the IO, which differ between the two hemispheres. In the southern IO, plastics accumulate in a garbage patch in the subtropical gyre. However, this garbage patch is not well defined, and plastics may leak into the southern Atlantic or the Pacific Ocean. There is no subtropical gyre and associated garbage in the northern IO due to the presence of landmasses. Instead, the majority of buoyant plastics most likely end up on coastlines. Finally, we identify the vast knowledge gaps concerning plastics in the IO and point to the most pressing topics for future investigation.

Swell hindcast statistics for the Baltic Sea

The classic characterisation of swell as regular, almost monochromatic, wave trains does not necessarily accurately describe swell in water bodies shielded from the oceanic wave climate. In such enclosed areas the locally generated swell waves still contribute to processes at the air and seabed interfaces, and their presence can be quantified by partitioning wave components based on their speed relative to the wind. We present swell statistics for the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea using 20 years of swell-partitioned model data. The swell significant wave height was mostly under 2 m, and in the winter (DJF) the mean significant swell height was typically less than 0.4 m; higher swell was found in limited nearshore areas. Swell waves were typically short (under 5 s), with mean periods over 8 s being rare. In open-sea areas the average ratio of swell energy (to total energy) was mostly below 0.4 – significantly less than in the World Ocean. Certain coastal areas were swell dominated over half the time, mostly because of weak winds (U<5 m s−1) rather than high swell heights. Swell-dominated events with a swell height over 1 m typically lasted under 10 h. A cross-correlation analysis indicates that swell in the open sea is mostly generated from local wind sea when wind decays (dominant time lag roughly 15 h). Near the coast, however, the results suggest that the swell is partially detached from the local wind waves, although not necessarily from the weather system that generates them because the highest swell typically arrives with a roughly 10 h delay after the low-pressure system has already passed.

Assimilating realistically simulated wide-swath altimeter observations in a high-resolution shelf-seas forecasting system

The impact of assimilating simulated wide-swath altimetry observations from the upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is assessed using observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). These experiments use the Met Office 1.5 km resolution North West European Shelf analysis and forecasting system. In an effort to understand the importance of future work to account for correlated errors in the data assimilation scheme, we simulate SWOT observations with and without realistic correlated errors. These are assimilated in OSSEs along with simulated observations of the standard observing network, also with realistic errors added. It was found that while the assimilation of SWOT observations without correlated errors reduced the RMSE (root mean squared error) in sea surface height (SSH) and surface current speeds by up to 20 %, the inclusion of correlated errors in the observations degraded both the SSH and surface currents, introduced an erroneous increase in the mean surface currents and degraded the subsurface temperature and salinity. While restricting the SWOT data to the inner half of the swath and applying observation averaging with a 5 km radius negated most of the negative impacts, it also severely limited the positive impacts. To realise the full benefits in the prediction of the ocean mesoscale offered by wide-swath altimetry missions, it is crucial that methods to ameliorate the effects of correlated errors in the processing of the SWOT observations and account for the correlated errors in the assimilation are implemented.

Nutrient ratios driven by vertical stratification regulate phytoplankton community structure in the oligotrophic western Pacific Ocean

The stratification of the upper oligotrophic ocean has a direct impact on biogeochemistry by regulating the components of the upper-ocean environment that are critical to biological productivity, such as light availability for photosynthesis and nutrient supply from the deep ocean. We investigated the spatial distribution pattern and diversity of phytoplankton communities in the western Pacific Ocean (WPO) in the autumn of 2016, 2017, and 2018. Our results showed the phytoplankton community structure mainly consisted of cyanobacteria, diatoms, and dinoflagellates, while the abundance of Chrysophyceae was negligible. Phytoplankton abundance was high from the equatorial region to 10∘ N and decreased with increasing latitude in spatial distribution. Phytoplankton also showed a strong variation in the vertical distribution. The potential influences of physicochemical parameters on phytoplankton abundance were analyzed by a structural equation model (SEM) to determine nutrient ratios driven by vertical stratification to regulate phytoplankton community structure in the typical oligotrophic ocean. Regions with strong vertical stratification were more favorable for cyanobacteria, whereas weak vertical stratification was more conducive to diatoms and dinoflagellates. Our study shows that stratification is a major determinant of phytoplankton community structure and highlights that physical processes in the ocean control phytoplankton community structure by driving the balance of chemical elements, providing a database to better predict models of changes in phytoplankton community structure under future ocean scenarios.

Rectified tidal transport in Lofoten–Vesterålen, northern Norway

Vestfjorden in northern Norway, a major spawning ground for the northeast Arctic cod, is sheltered from the continental shelf and open ocean by the Lofoten–Vesterålen archipelago. The archipelago, however, is well known for hosting strong and vigorous tidal currents in its many straits, currents that can produce significant time-mean tracer transport from Vestfjorden to the shelf outside. We use a purely tidally driven unstructured-grid ocean model to look into non-linear tidal dynamics and the associated tracer transport through the archipelago. Of particular interest are two processes: tidal pumping through the straits and tidal rectification around islands. The most prominent tracer transport is caused by tidal pumping through the short and strongly non-linear straits Nordlandsflaget and Moskstraumen near the southern tip of the archipelago. Here, tracers from Vestfjorden are transported tens of kilometers westward out on the outer shelf. Further north, weaker yet notable tidal pumping also takes place through the longer straits Nappstraumen and Gimsøystraumen. The other main transport route out of Vestfjorden is south of the island of Røst. Here, the transport is primarily due to tracer advection by rectified anticyclonic currents around the island. There is also an anticyclonic circulation cell around the island group Mosken–Værøy, and both cells have flow speeds up to 0.2 m s−1, magnitudes similar to the observed background currents in the region. These high-resolution simulations thus emphasize the importance of non-linear tidal dynamics for transport of floating particles, like cod eggs and larvae, in the region.

Progress in understanding of Indian Ocean circulation, variability, air–sea exchange, and impacts on biogeochemistry

Over the past decade, our understanding of the Indian Ocean has advanced through concerted efforts toward measuring the ocean circulation and air–sea exchanges, detecting changes in water masses, and linking physical processes to ecologically important variables. New circulation pathways and mechanisms have been discovered that control atmospheric and oceanic mean state and variability. This review brings together new understanding of the ocean–atmosphere system in the Indian Ocean since the last comprehensive review, describing the Indian Ocean circulation patterns, air–sea interactions, and climate variability. Coordinated international focus on the Indian Ocean has motivated the application of new technologies to deliver higher-resolution observations and models of Indian Ocean processes. As a result we are discovering the importance of small-scale processes in setting the large-scale gradients and circulation, interactions between physical and biogeochemical processes, interactions between boundary currents and the interior, and interactions between the surface and the deep ocean. A newly discovered regional climate mode in the southeast Indian Ocean, the Ningaloo Niño, has instigated more regional air–sea coupling and marine heatwave research in the global oceans. In the last decade, we have seen rapid warming of the Indian Ocean overlaid with extremes in the form of marine heatwaves. These events have motivated studies that have delivered new insight into the variability in ocean heat content and exchanges in the Indian Ocean and have highlighted the critical role of the Indian Ocean as a clearing house for anthropogenic heat. This synthesis paper reviews the advances in these areas in the last decade.

The diurnal cycle of <i>p</i>CO₂ in the coastal region of the Baltic Sea

The direction and magnitude of carbon dioxide fluxes between the atmosphere and the sea are regulated by the gradient in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) across the air–sea interface. Typically, observations of pCO2 at the sea surface are carried out by using research vessels and ships of opportunity, which usually do not resolve the diurnal cycle of pCO2 at a given location. This study evaluates the magnitude and driving processes of the diurnal cycle of pCO2 in a coastal region of the Baltic Sea. We present pCO2 data from July 2018 to June 2019 measured in the vicinity of the island of Utö at the outer edge of the Archipelago Sea, and quantify the relevant physical, biological, and chemical processes controlling pCO2. The highest monthly median of diurnal pCO2 variability (31 µatm) was observed in August and predominantly driven by biological processes. Biological fixation and mineralization of carbon led to sinusoidal diurnal pCO2 variations, with a maximum in the morning and a minimum in the afternoon. Compared with the biological carbon transformations, the impacts of air–sea fluxes and temperature changes on pCO2 were small, with their contributions to the monthly medians of diurnal pCO2 variability being up to 12 and 5 µatm, respectively. During upwelling events, short-term pCO2 variability (up to 500 µatm within a day) largely exceeded the usual diurnal cycle. If the net annual air–sea flux of carbon dioxide at our study site and for the sampled period is calculated based on a data subset that consists of only one regular measurement per day, the bias in the net exchange depends on the sampling time and can amount up to ±12 %. This finding highlights the importance of continuous surface pCO2 measurements at fixed locations for the assessment of the short-term variability of the carbonate system and the correct determination of air–sea CO2 fluxes.