scholarly journals Dynamics of moving average rules in a continuous-time financial market model

2010 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 615-634 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xue-Zhong He ◽  
Min Zheng
1998 ◽  
Vol 01 (03) ◽  
pp. 331-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel Grorud ◽  
Monique Pontier

This paper uses the enlargement of Brownian filtrations and a probability change for modelling the observation of a financial market by an insider trader. A characterization of admissible strategies and a criterion for optimization are given. Then a statistical test is proposed to test whether or not the trader is an insider.


2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1121-1153
Author(s):  
Shin Kanaya

The convergence rates of the sums of α-mixing (or strongly mixing) triangular arrays of heterogeneous random variables are derived. We pay particular attention to the case where central limit theorems may fail to hold, due to relatively strong time-series dependence and/or the nonexistence of higher-order moments. Several previous studies have presented various versions of laws of large numbers for sequences/triangular arrays, but their convergence rates were not fully investigated. This study is the first to investigate the convergence rates of the sums of α-mixing triangular arrays whose mixing coefficients are permitted to decay arbitrarily slowly. We consider two kinds of asymptotic assumptions: one is that the time distance between adjacent observations is fixed for any sample size n; and the other, called the infill assumption, is that it shrinks to zero as n tends to infinity. Our convergence theorems indicate that an explicit trade-off exists between the rate of convergence and the degree of dependence. While the results under the infill assumption can be seen as a direct extension of those under the fixed-distance assumption, they are new and particularly useful for deriving sharper convergence rates of discretization biases in estimating continuous-time processes from discretely sampled observations. We also discuss some examples to which our results and techniques are useful and applicable: a moving-average process with long lasting past shocks, a continuous-time diffusion process with weak mean reversion, and a near-unit-root process.


1987 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terence D. Agbeyegbe

This article deals with the derivation of the exact discrete model that corresponds to a closed linear first-order continuous-time system with mixed stock and flow data. This exact discrete model is (under appropriate additional conditions) a stationary autoregressive moving average time series model and may allow one to obtain asymptotically efficient estimators of the parameters describing the continuous-time system.


2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 74
Author(s):  
I Komang Gede Widiarta

Investasi di bursa saham sejak tahun 1998 masih kalah dibandingkan dengan investasi yang lain, karena investor berpendapat bahwa investasi tersebut memiliki tingkat risiko yang tidak dapat diprediksi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah, untuk mengetahui tingkat risiko saham (kasus saham perbankan) di Bursa Efek Indonesia melalui perhitungan estimasi beta dan metode Exponential Moving Average, dan juga untuk mengetahui conditional volatility yang menjelaskan seluruh perbedaan cross-sectional di dalam pengembalian return saham melalui risiko differential saham. Model penelitian ini didasarkan pada model pasar (market model), yaitu return historis saham diregresi dengan return historis suatu proksi portofolio pasar. Return pasar yang digunakan sebagai proksi dalam penelitian ini adalah return dari Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Sedangkan metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah studi deskriptif yang bertujuan untuk mengetahui dan mampu menjelaskan karakteristik variable yang diteliti dalam suatu situasi. Observasi dilakukan pada 27 bank dari total 34 bank yang terdaftar sebagai emiten di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Enam dari bank tersebut masih dalam proses IPO dan satu bank belum melakukan transaksi yaitu Bank Jabar dan Banten. Periode pengamatan yang dipakai adalah dari bulan januari 2008 hingga bulan Desember 2010. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa tingkat risiko saham perbankan di Bursa Efek Indonesia dapat dihitung melalui estimasi beta dan metode rata-rata bergerak Exponential Moving Average dengan hasil uji bias yang menunjukan nilai 0,97 dan tingkat kesalahan estimasi beta melalui metode mean absolute percent error (MAPE) sebesar 5,73%. Conditional volatility dapat menjelaskan seluruh perbedaan cross-sectional di dalam pengembalian return saham melalui risiko differential saham perbankan di Bursa Efek Indonesia 


2012 ◽  
Vol 49 (04) ◽  
pp. 954-966
Author(s):  
R. Romera ◽  
W. Runggaldier

A finite-horizon insurance model is studied where the risk/reserve process can be controlled by reinsurance and investment in the financial market. Our setting is innovative in the sense that we describe in a unified way the timing of the events, that is, the arrivals of claims and the changes of the prices in the financial market, by means of a continuous-time semi-Markov process which appears to be more realistic than, say, classical diffusion-based models. Obtaining explicit optimal solutions for the minimizing ruin probability is a difficult task. Therefore we derive a specific methodology, based on recursive relations for the ruin probability, to obtain a reinsurance and investment policy that minimizes an exponential bound (Lundberg-type bound) on the ruin probability.


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