Cancer begins in cells, the building blocks that
make up tissues. Tissues make up the organs of the body. The
buildup of extra cells often forms a mass of tissue called a
growth, polyp or tumor. Tumors can be benign (non cancerous)
or malignant (cancerous). Benign tumors are not as harmful as
malignant tumors. The transformation of normal cells into
cancer cells is called Carcinogenesis.Cancer is one of the major
health problems persisting world-wide. Urbanization,
industrialization, changes in lifestyles, population growth and
ageing all have contributed for epidemiological transition in the
country. The absolute number of new cancer cases is increasing
rapidly due to growth in size of the population The stages of
cancer are considered as different states of a Markov Process.
Discrete-time Markov chains have been successfully used to
investigate treatment programs and health care protocols for
chronic diseases like HIV, AIDS, Hypertension etc. In this study,
the process of carcinogenesis was classified into 6 states. The
history of every patient is recorded in the form of a data segment
starting from initial state.The transitional states and absorbing
states are well defined. Since all the patients under study do not
reach the last state at a given point of time, the process was
studied as a Semi Markov Process. Maximum likelihood
estimation of the transitional probabilities, the survival function,
the hazard function and the waiting time distribution of patients
in different states were studied. This kind of statistical
methodology used to study the prognosis of cancer can be applied
to real-time data of cancer patients.