Many commuters find themselves stranded during natural disasters like typhoons. In the Tokai region in Japan, many road sections become heavily congested during typhoons, with some commuters reporting homebound trips taking more than four times longer than usual because of road flooding at several locations. Although large typhoons are considered extreme events (in terms of magnitude), they occur frequently (i.e., several times per year), substantiating the need for better preparedness. Nonetheless, it is impossible to predict exactly which roads are going to be flooded during a typhoon. As a result, in this study, a stochastic modeling approach was used that assigns a failure probability to each road segment based on climate model outputs for the region. Using this stochastic model, the travel time reliability between any given origin–destination pair can be determined. By applying this model to the road network of the Tokai region, two major measures were identified that could be implemented to reduce severe congestion during a typhoon. First, targeted infrastructure management measures can be implemented to strengthen heavily used roads, thus reducing the failure probability of major roads. Second, travel demand management measures can be implemented, such as asking commuters to leave their workplace or school one or two hours after their normal departure time. Overall, it was found that strengthening heavily used roads has a bigger impact in relieving congestion than delaying departure time, but that combining both strategies achieves the best results.
Incentives for local governments to implement travel demand management measures
