Purpose
The purpose of this study is to compare two theories that relate the proportion of diversified firms in the economy and the implied discount for diversified firms: the first is a real-options model predicting a positive relationship between the discount and management’s choice to operate a diversified firm; the second is based on catering theory, in which a negative relationship is predicted, as management is attentive to investor preference concerning diversified firms.
Design/methodology/approach
This study proposes a new aggregate measure of the diversification discount. The authors’ measure allows for decomposition of the discount into firm-level mispricing, industry-level mispricing and long-run fundamental value components.
Findings
Results support a catering theory of diversification. The discount appears to be the result of firm-level mispricing. Thus, providing an explanation for why, in light of the observed discount, a large number of diversified firms persist.
Originality/value
To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to provide evidence that firm-level mispricing may drive the observed diversification discount.
We document a strong decline in corporate-diversification activity since the late 1970s, and we develop a dynamic model that explains this pattern, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The key feature of the model is that synergies endogenously decline with technological specialization, leading to fewer diversified firms in equilibrium. The model further predicts that segments inside a conglomerate should become more related over time, which is consistent with the data. Finally, the calibrated model also matches other empirical magnitudes well: output growth rate, market-to-book ratios, diversification discount, frequency and returns of diversifying mergers, and frequency of refocusing activity.
An ananlysis of the effects of the probability of informed trading (pin) on corporate diversification discount and CEO pay-performance sensitivity : evidence from China
