Risk analysis for seasonal flood-limited water level under uncertainties

This paper presents the practical application of concepts, and some methods of risk analysis, to check the possibility of overcoming a water level of project in the spillway of dam Orós, by excess of influent flow. Also evaluated the empirical formulas contained in the original design. Due to the difficulty of obtaining design data from the dam, since the end of construction date of January, 11, 1961, we minimize the effects of some variables in the calculations, leading us to the consequent simplification of the scenario under study. For a better evaluation and characterization of the setting, some variables in the model such as water level, accumulation and flow of the spillway, had updated their data to June 28, 2011. We have demonstrated the importance of risk analysis for project design, construction and operation of large reservoirs, and the need for ongoing assessments of works of this nature.

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A Flood Water Level and Risk Analysis in Langsa River Aceh Province

10.2991/assehr.k.210909.096 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Y. Ismida ◽

F. Isma ◽

H. Fajri ◽

A. Zevri

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Water Level ◽

Flood Water ◽

Aceh Province

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The Application and Research of Dynamic Control the Flood Limited Water Level of Wuqiangxi Reservoir

MATEC Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/matecconf/201824601055 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 246 ◽

pp. 01055

Author(s):

Xin Wu ◽

Ping Zhong

Keyword(s):

Technology Management ◽

Water Level ◽

Production Technology ◽

Dynamic Control ◽

Approval Process ◽

Paper Briefly ◽

Relevant Research ◽

Research Results ◽

Management Personnel ◽

Flood Limited Water Level

This paper briefly introduces the method, content and approval process of the dynamic control of the flood limited level in Wuqiangxi reservoir, and summarizes the benefits since the implementation of dynamic control. The relevant research results of this paper can be used as reference for production technology management personnel.

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Flood Risk Analysis of Different Climatic Phenomena during Flood Season Based on Copula-based Bayesian Network Method: A Case Study of Taihu Basin, China

Water ◽

10.3390/w11081534 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (8) ◽

pp. 1534 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Luo ◽

Dong ◽

Guan ◽

Liu

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Risk Analysis ◽

Bayesian Network ◽

Water Level ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Taihu Lake ◽

Flood Risk Management ◽

Management Model ◽

Flood Season ◽

Taihu Basin

We propose a flood risk management model for the Taihu Basin, China, that considers the spatial and temporal differences of flood risk caused by the different climatic phenomena. In terms of time, the probability distribution of climatic phenomenon occurrence time was used to divide the flood season into plum rain and the typhoon periods. In terms of space, the Taihu Basin was divided into different sub-regions by the Copula functions. Finally, we constructed a flood risk management model using the Copula-based Bayesian network to analyze the flood risk. The results showed the plum rain period occurs from June 24 to July 21 and the typhoon period from July 22 to September 22. Considering the joint distribution of sub-region precipitation and the water level of Taihu Lake, we divided the Taihu Basin into three sub-regions (P-I, P-II, and P-III) for risk analysis in the plum rain period. However, the Taihu Basin was used as a whole for flood risk analysis in the typhoon period. Risk analysis indicated a probability of 2.4%, and 0.8%, respectively, for future adverse drainage during the plum rain period and the typhoon period, the flood risk increases rapidly with the rising water level in the Taihu Lake.

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