PENERAPAN METODE BAYES DALAM MENGESTIMASI PREMI KREDIBILITAS PADA ASURANSI UMUM

Determination of insurance premiums is very important the calculation must be done carefully so that there is experience losses. The purpose of this research is to find out the application of empirical Bayes credibility theory Model 1 and estimate of the credibility premium on general insurance. A method that can help in overcoming these problems, that is empirical Bayes credibility theory Model 1, results of the estimated credibility premium credibility (in Euros) for insurance companies Alianz, Csob, Generali, Koop, Unisqa, and Wusten respectively as follows: 46.774811, 7.801307, 10.368991, 58.812250, 6.703035, and 5.091605. These results, the average claim is greater than the credibility premium, so that insurance companies can reserve premiums for the future.

Penerapan Metode Limited-Fluctuation Credibility dalam Menentukan Premi Murni pada Asuransi Kendaraan Bermotor di PT XYZ

<p><strong>Abstract. </strong>This paper discusses the method of limited-fluctuation credibility, also known as classic credibility. Credibility theory is a technique for predicting future premium rates based on past experience data. Limited fluctuation credibility consists of two credibility, namely full credibility if Z = 1 and partial credibility if Z &lt;1. Full credibility is achieved if the amount of recent data is sufficient for prediction, whereas if the latest data is insufficient then the partial credibility approach is used. Calculations for full and partial credibility standards are used for loss measures such as frequency of claims, size of claims, aggregate losses and net premiums. The data used in this paper is secondary data recorded by the company PT. XYZ in 2014. This data contains data on the frequency of claims and the size of the policyholder's partial loss claims for motor vehicle insurance products category 4 areas 1. Based on the results of the application, the prediction of pure premiums for 2015 cannot be fully based on insurance data for 2014 because the credibility factor value is less than 1. So based on the limited-fluctuation credibility method, the prediction of pure premiums for 2015 must be based on manual values for pure premiums as well as insurance data for 2014. If manual values for pure premium is 2,000,000 rupiah, then the prediction of pure premium for 2015 is 1,849,342 rupiah.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong><strong>: </strong>limited fluctuation credibility, full credibility, partial credibility and partial loss</p>

Menggali peran digital fitness influencer terhadap parasocial interaction dan fan citizenship behaviour

This article elucidate the concept of fan citizenship behaviour can be influenced by digital fitness influencers and parasocial interactions. This article uses a systematic literature review approach to clarify the concept fan citizenship behaviour by integrating source credibility theory and social exchange theory. The results provide 39 articles extend an overview of digital fitness influencers in holistic, how fitness influencers build relationships in a parasocial and resiprokal. Digital fitness influencers share content through photos, videos and interact with fan through comments or short messages, and fan form imaginary relationships called parasocial relationships. From the relationships, fan gratify their psychological necessity such as pleasurement, cultivate loyalty and commitment to digital fitness influencers.

A Novel Constraints Model of Credibility-Fuzzy for Reliability Redundancy Allocation Problem by Simplified Swarm Optimization

A novel constraints model of credibility-fuzzy for the reliability redundancy allocation problem (RRAP) is studied in this work. The RRAP that must simultaneously decide reliability and redundancy of components is an effective approach in improving the system reliability. In practice various systems, the uncertainty condition of components used in the systems, which few studies have noticed this state over the years, is a concrete fact due to several reasons such as production conditions, different batches of raw materials, time reasons, and climatic factors. Therefore, this study adopts the fuzzy theory and credibility theory to solve the components uncertainty in the constraints of RRAP including cost, weight, and volume. Moreover, the simplified swarm optimization (SSO) algorithm has been adopted to solve the fuzzy constraints of RRAP. The effectiveness and performance of SSO algorithm have been experimented by four famous benchmarks of RRAP.

The Measures of Accuracy of Claim Frequency Credibility Predictor

Nowadays, the sustainability risks and opportunities start to affect strongly insurance companies in regard to the resulting additional variability of future values of variables taken into account in the decision processes. This is important especially in the era of sustainable non-life insurance promoting, among others, the use of ecological car engines or ecological systems of building heating. The fundamental issue in non-life insurance is to predict future claims (e.g., the aggregate value of claims or the number of claims for a single policy) in a heterogeneous portfolio of policies taking account of claim experience. For this purpose, the so-called credibility theory is used, which was initiated by the fundamental Bühlmann model modified to the Bühlmann–Straub model. Several modifications of the model have been proposed in the literature. One of them is the development of the relationship between the credibility models and statistical mixed models (e.g., linear mixed models) for longitudinal data. The article proposes the use of the parametric bootstrap algorithm to estimate measures of accuracy of the credibility predictor of the number of claims for a single policy taking into account new risk factors resulting from the emergence of green technologies on the considered market. The predictor is obtained for the model which belongs to the class of Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) and which is a generalization of the Bülmann–Straub model. Additionally, the possibility of predicting the number of claims and the problem of the assessment of the prediction accuracy are presented based on a policy characterized by new green risk factor (hybrid motorcycle engine) not previously present in the portfolio. The paper presents the proposed methodology in a case study using real insurance data from the Polish market.

Democracy, reputation for resolve, and civil conflict

There is a long-running disagreement about how regime type affects a country’s ability to project resolve. Specifically, there is an open question about whether being a democracy helps or hurts a country’s reputation for resolve. I consider this question by directly estimating a state’s reputation for resolve using a unified theoretical and statistical approach. To be precise, I derive an empirical model from a dynamic game of continuous-time bargaining where each side fights in order to build a reputation for resolve. I then fit this model using data on the duration and termination of civil conflicts between 1946 and 2009. I find that while governments tend to have stronger reputations for resolve than the rebels they face, democracies are seen as much less likely to be resolved both prior to and during conflict than their autocratic counterparts. Likewise, democracies are more likely to end a conflict by making a policy change in favor of the rebels than autocracies. Despite these differences, both democracies and autocracies experience a discrete increase in their reputations for resolve once conflict begins, with democracies receiving a much larger boost. As such, these findings contrast with a large literature on democratic credibility theory, while simultaneously providing evidence consistent with some of the logic behind democratic credibility theory.

PENGARUH EVENT PUTERI INDONESIA DAN ELVIRA DEVINAMIRA TERHADAP PERSEPSI MASYARAKAT ATAS WANITA INDONESIA

Event is something that we could use in reaching a goal and create awareness towards brand and company. The development of event over the year is changing start from exhibitions, performances, until the beauty pageant or beauty contests. Indonesia's oldest beauty pageant was called Puteri Indonesia organized by Yayasan Puteri Indonesia Indonesia under the auspices of the cosmetics company PT. Mustika Ratu. In this study, researchers wanted to know whether there is influence between Event Puteri Indonesia with Elvira Devinamira as Puteri Indonesia 2014 winner of the public perception of women in Indonesia. Where researchers use the main theories Soucre Credibility Theory, and some supporting theories such as events, and perception.As a results, that the effects of the event Puteri Indonesia and Elvira Devinamira to the public perception on Indonesian women have a positive influence. It can be concluded that every woman who follows the selection of Puteri Indonesia definitely a good woman with positive attitude as well.

Power Brand Defense Up, My Friend! Stimulating Brand Defense through Digital Content Marketing

Digital content marketing that increases consumers’ favorable behavior is of increasing interest to marketers. However, there is a lack of studies that examine the relative effect of digital content marketing on brand defense. Building on the theoretical lens of elaboration likelihood model, attachment theory, and source credibility theory, this experimental study examines the relative effect of two types of digital content marketing on brand defense, taking into consideration the mediation effect of behavioral engagement and the moderation effect of age generation. Based on 237 participants collected from a United States sample, the findings of this study revealed that user-generated content is a stronger predictor of brand defense and behavioral engagement compared to firm-generated content. Further, behavioral engagement served as a mediator variable between the digital content marketing types and brand defense. Significant evidence has additionally been found between behavioral engagement and brand defense. Moreover, the findings of the moderation analysis illustrated that Generation Z is the most influenced by user-generated content, followed by Generations X and Y. Generation Y is the most influenced by firm-generated content, followed by Generations Z and X. This study adds empirical relevance to the growing literature of the importance of digital content marketing, behavioral engagement, and generation as well validates the effects of those constructs on brand defense.

Antecedents of Intention to Use Online Peer-to-Peer Platform in Malaysia

Considering the demand for alternative source of finance, the number of online peer-to-peer (P2P) financing platforms is increasing tremendously in Malaysia with the upward trend in the number of users and the introduction of secondary market for P2P platforms. As such, it is of great importance to investigate the antecedents of intention to use this online-based financing platform. This study examines if P2P platform ease of use, P2P platform usefulness, perceived expertise, P2P platform trustworthiness and reciprocity contribute to the usage intention of online P2P platforms building on technology acceptance model (TAM), source credibility theory (SCT) and social exchange theory (SET). By estimating partial least square-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), the results reveal that P2P platform ease of use, P2P platform usefulness and reciprocity are the crucial determinants influencing the intention to use online P2P financing platforms. The findings imply that P2P service providers should emphasize more on the ease of use and usefulness of the platform with reciprocity to increase usage the intention of borrowers or lenders.