scholarly journals Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets

2008 ◽  
Vol 387 (18) ◽  
pp. 4630-4636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheoljun Eom ◽  
Sunghoon Choi ◽  
Gabjin Oh ◽  
Woo-Sung Jung
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Hurst Exponent ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Efficient Market

scholarly journals Analiza efektywności informacyjnej w formie słabej na rynkach „soft commodities” z wykorzystaniem wybranych testów statystycznych

2017 ◽  
Vol 17(32) (3) ◽  
pp. 81-92
Author(s):  
Anna Górska ◽  
Monika Krawiec
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Orange Juice ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Weak Form Efficiency

The Efficient Market Hypothesis received much attention in the late 1970s. Those early studies focused on examining the efficiency of stock markets, however since that time the researchers’ interest has shifted to commodity markets. The studies usually focus on the markets of oil and of agricultural products, mainly grains. The efficiency of soft commodities market is also examined but not to the same extent. Majority of investigations focus on single products of this category. Thus the aim of our paper is to extend the research and to analyze the weak-form efficiency of six soft commodities: coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton, frozen concentrated orange juice and rubber. Data under consideration covers daily spot prices of the commodities in the period 2007-2016. Having calculated their logarithmic returns we perform the following statistical tests: runs test, autocorrelation test, Box-Pierce and Box –Ljung tests. As the results obtained are not homogenous, this opens a door to further investigations with the use of different methodology.

An Empirical Study on Efficient Market Hypothesis with reference to FMCG Sector

GIS Business ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-126
Author(s):  
Nitin Tanted ◽  
Prashant Mistry
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Run Test ◽  
Stock Price Movements

One of the highly controversial issues in the area of finance is “Efficient Market Hypothesis”. Efficient Market Hypothesis states that, “In an efficient market, all available price information is reflected in the stock prices and it is not possible to generate abnormal returns compared to other investors.” A lot of studies conducted previouslyto test the Efficient Market Hypothesis, confirmed the theory until recent years, when some academicians found it to be non-applicable in financial markets. According to them, it is possible to forecast the stock price movements using Technical Analysis. The results of various studies have been inconclusive and indefinite about the issue. This study attempted to test the efficiency of FMCG Sector stocks in India in its weak form. For the study, closing prices of top 10 stocks from Nifty FMCG index has been taken for the 5-year period ranging from 1st October 2014 to 30th September 2019. Wald-Wolfowitz Run test has been used to test the haphazard movements in the stock price movements. The results indicated that FMCG sector stocks does support the Efficient Market Hypothesis and exhibit efficiency in its weak form. Hence, it is not possible to accurately predict the price movements of these stocks.

Robust Approach to Verifying the Weak Form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luboš Střelec ◽  
Theodore E. Simos ◽  
George Psihoyios ◽  
Ch. Tsitouras ◽  
Zacharias Anastassi
Keyword(s):  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Robust Approach

scholarly journals Nonlinearities and Chaos: A New Analysis of CEE Stock Markets

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 707
Author(s):  
Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu ◽  
Aviral Kumar Tiwari ◽  
Phouphet Kyophilavong
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Chaotic Behavior ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Price Behavior ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Level Of Significance

After a long transition period, the Central and Eastern European (CEE) capital markets have consolidated their place in the financial systems. However, little is known about the price behavior and efficiency of these markets. In this context, using a battery of tests for nonlinear and chaotic behavior, we look for the presence of nonlinearities and chaos in five CEE stock markets. We document, in general, the presence of nonlinearities and chaos which questions the efficient market hypothesis. However, if all tests highlight a chaotic behavior for the analyzed index returns, there are noteworthy differences between the analyzed stock markets underlined by nonlinearity tests, which question, thus, their level of significance. Moreover, the results of nonlinearity tests partially contrast the previous findings reported in the literature on the same group of stock markets, showing, thus, a change in their recent behavior, compared with the 1990s.

Testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis for socially responsible and Shariah indexes in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Khan ◽  
Muhammad Yar Khan ◽  
Abdul Qayyum Khan ◽  
Majid Jamal Khan ◽  
Zia Ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Purpose By testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) this study aims to forecast the short-term stock prices of the US Dow and Jones environmental socially responsible index (SRI) and Shariah compliance index (SCI). Design/methodology/approach This study checks the validity of the weak form of EMH for both SCI and SRI prices by using different parametric and non-parametric tests, i.e. augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Philip-Perron test, runs test and variance ratio test. If the EMH is invalid, the research further forecasts short-term stock prices by applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using daily price data from 2010 to 2018. Findings The research confirms that a weak form of EMH is not valid in the US SRI and SCI. The historical data can predict short-term future price movements by using technical ARIMA model. Research limitations/implications This study provides better guidance to risk-averse national and international investors to earn higher returns in the US SRI and SCI. This study can be extended to test the EMH of Islamic equity in the Middle East and North Africa region and other top Islamic indexes in the world. Originality/value This study is a new addition to the existing literature of equity investment and price forecasting by comparing and investigating the market efficiency of two interrelated US SRI and SCI.

scholarly journals Die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs as rasionele kapitaalmark

1981 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 53-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leon M. Brummer ◽  
Pieter J. Jacobs
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Small Degree ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Economic Point ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
Measure Of Dependence

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange as an efficient market. Finality has not yet been reached on the question whether the Johannesburg Stock Exchange complies with the requirements of the efficient market hypothesis. The results of the research that are published in this article is therefore an attempt to make a contribution to the debate regarding the Johannesburg Stock Exchange as an efficient market. By way of serial correlations as well as runs tests an investigation was carried out into the behaviour of the prices of 94 quoted shares for the period 1970 to 1977. The results of the study give rise to the conclusion that the Johannesburg Stock Exchange does not statistically comply with the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (the random walk hypothesis), as a measure of dependence between successive price changes was found. Seen from an economic point of view it is, however, doubtful whether investors could use this small degree of dependence between price changes to gain higher returns on share investments.Uitsluitsel met betrekking tot die mate waartoe die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs aan die vereistes vir 'n rasionele mark voldoen, is nog nie verkry nie. Die resultate wat in hierdie artikel voorkom is daarom 'n poging om 'n bydrae in die debat rakende die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs as 'n rasionele mark, te maak. 'n Ondersoek na die markpryse van 94 genoteerde aandele vir die periode 1970-77 is deur middel van reekskorrelasiekoeffisiente en die lopietoets uitgevoer. Die resultate van die studie gee aanleiding tot die gevolgtrekking dat die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs nie statisties aan die swak vorm van die rasionele markhipotese (die willekeurige beweging van markpryse) voldoen nie, aangesien 'n mate van afhanklikheid tussen opeenvolgende prysveranderings gevind is. Uit 'n ekonomiese oogpunt gesien is dit egter twyfelagtig of beleggers hierdie afhanklikheid sal kan aanwend om hoer opbrengste op aandelebeleggings te bewerkstellig.

Do the Stock Market Indices Follow a Random Walk?

2021 ◽  
pp. 389-410
Author(s):  
Cristina Vasco ◽  
Pedro Pardal ◽  
Rui Teixeira Dias
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Efficiency Hypothesis

This chapter aims to test the hypothesis of an efficient market, in its weak form, in the stock markets of Brazil, China, South Korea, USA, Spain, Italy, in the period from December 2, 2020 to May 12, 2020. The results show that the market efficiency hypothesis is rejected in all markets. In corroboration the DFA exponents show long memories, which put in question the market efficiency, in its weak form, suggesting that the stock markets analyzed show some predictability. In conclusion, investors should avoid investing in stock markets, at least while this pandemic lasts, and invest in less risky markets in order to mitigate risk and improve the efficiency of their portfolios.

Efficient Market Hypothesis for Islamic Capital Markets

2020 ◽  
pp. 489-523
Author(s):  
Hakan Altin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Global Markets ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Share ◽  
Theoretical Results

This study has two important findings firstly, the theoretical results related to the efficient market hypothesis; and secondly, the results of application. The theoretical results show that if the market price of an asset includes all the information that influences its price, then that market is an efficient market. According to the efficient market hypothesis, investors cannot earn gains above the market return. Since stock share prices are unpredictable, it is assumed that when the information that the market had already been expecting is finally announced, the stock share prices will not change. That is because this announcement does not contain any information that can change the prices. The results obtained from the application show that the existence of abnormal return is valid for Islamic Stock Markets. Therefore, the findings mediate against the efficient market hypothesis. However, when the size of abnormal returns is observed, the results are almost equal to market returns. This finding supports the efficient market hypothesis. Islamic stock markets are integrated with the world at least as much as the non-Islamic global markets are. Islamic stock markets act together with the non-Islamic global markets. The risks and returns that the Islamic and non-Islamic stock markets provide to the investors are very close to each other. In conclusion, the efficient market hypothesis maintains its explanatory power for both Islamic stock markets and non-Islamic global stock markets. Islamic markets offer new investment opportunities on a global scale.

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