An Empirical Study on Efficient Market Hypothesis with reference to FMCG Sector

GIS Business ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-126
Author(s):  
Nitin Tanted ◽  
Prashant Mistry
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Run Test ◽  
Stock Price Movements

One of the highly controversial issues in the area of finance is “Efficient Market Hypothesis”. Efficient Market Hypothesis states that, “In an efficient market, all available price information is reflected in the stock prices and it is not possible to generate abnormal returns compared to other investors.” A lot of studies conducted previouslyto test the Efficient Market Hypothesis, confirmed the theory until recent years, when some academicians found it to be non-applicable in financial markets. According to them, it is possible to forecast the stock price movements using Technical Analysis. The results of various studies have been inconclusive and indefinite about the issue. This study attempted to test the efficiency of FMCG Sector stocks in India in its weak form. For the study, closing prices of top 10 stocks from Nifty FMCG index has been taken for the 5-year period ranging from 1st October 2014 to 30th September 2019. Wald-Wolfowitz Run test has been used to test the haphazard movements in the stock price movements. The results indicated that FMCG sector stocks does support the Efficient Market Hypothesis and exhibit efficiency in its weak form. Hence, it is not possible to accurately predict the price movements of these stocks.

Anomalous Market Movements and the Rolling Settlement: Empirical Evidence from Indian Stock Markets

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 31-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramesh Chander ◽  
Kiran Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weekend Effect ◽  
Settlement Period ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Anomalous Pattern ◽  
Stock Price Movements

Investors and analysts are unable to predict stock price movements consistently so as to beat the market in informationally efficient markets. Still, concerted efforts are being made to earn abnormal returns discerning some anomalous pattern in the stock price movements. Also, the study of some structural changes in the market leading to, or removing some anomalous pattern in the stock prices, are of interest to investors and analysts. The present study was conceptualised to scrutinise whether anomalous patterns yield abnormal return consistently for any specific day of the week even after introduction of the compulsory rolling settlement on Indian bourses. Three market series viz., BSE Sensex, S and P CNX Nifty and S and P CNX 500 were observed on daily basis for ten years viz., i) Pre-rolling settlement period, April 1997 - December, 2001 and ii) Post-rolling settlement period, January 2002 - March 2007 to discern evidences in this regard. Contrary to developed capital markets, the results reported in this study documented lowest (significant) Friday returns in the pre-rolling settlement period as credible evidence for the weekend effect. The findings recorded for post-rolling settlement period were in harmony with those obtained elsewhere in the sense that Friday returns were highest and those on Monday were the lowest. It implied that arbitrage opportunities existed (for different trade settlement cycle on two exchanges, BSE and NSE) have disappeared consequent to the rolling settlement. On the whole, the study noted stock markets moved more rationally and anomalous return pattern noticed earlier could not sustain, in the post rolling settlement period.

scholarly journals Testing of weak form of efficient market hypothesis: evidence from the Bahrain Bourse

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 376-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar ◽  
Babitha Rohit ◽  
Prakash Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Run Test

Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that financial markets are “informationally efficient”, implying that current prices fully reflect all available information. The present study aims at testing the weak form of market efficiency of the individual stocks listed on the Bahrain Bourse for the period 2011 to 2015. Weak form of EMH is tested using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test, run test and autocorrelation test. The K-S test result concludes that in general the stock price movement does not follow random walk. The results of the runs test reveals that share prices of seven companies do not follow random walk. Autocorrelation tests reveal that share prices exhibit low to moderate correlation varying from negative to positive values. As the study shows mixed results, it is difficult to conclude the weak form of efficiency of Bahrain Bourse.

scholarly journals The Stock Investment Strategy at Company Acquisition

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 24-32
Author(s):  
Yu Wei Lan ◽  
Dan Lin ◽  
Lu Lin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Event Studies ◽  
Security Market ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Market Values

Recent studies in Accounting, Industrial Organizations and Finance often incorporate efficient market hypothesis in event studies. Event studies can be used to examine how changes in company environment affect corporate finance. However, using short-term stock prices to examine mean reversion may face a problem. Specifically, there is no evidence that changes in market values are unbiased estimates of changes in fundamentals. This study adopts program trading to test the mean reversion of an acquisition event (SPIL and ASE Group) between 2015 and 2016 in Taiwan. The results show that investors can use RSI spread and stock price deviation to make abnormal returns. In other words, investors can make profits based on technical analyses. Therefore, the evidence suggests that between 2015 and 2016, the security market in Taiwan did not fully meet the condition of a semi-strong form efficient market.

Testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis for socially responsible and Shariah indexes in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Khan ◽  
Muhammad Yar Khan ◽  
Abdul Qayyum Khan ◽  
Majid Jamal Khan ◽  
Zia Ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Purpose By testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) this study aims to forecast the short-term stock prices of the US Dow and Jones environmental socially responsible index (SRI) and Shariah compliance index (SCI). Design/methodology/approach This study checks the validity of the weak form of EMH for both SCI and SRI prices by using different parametric and non-parametric tests, i.e. augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Philip-Perron test, runs test and variance ratio test. If the EMH is invalid, the research further forecasts short-term stock prices by applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using daily price data from 2010 to 2018. Findings The research confirms that a weak form of EMH is not valid in the US SRI and SCI. The historical data can predict short-term future price movements by using technical ARIMA model. Research limitations/implications This study provides better guidance to risk-averse national and international investors to earn higher returns in the US SRI and SCI. This study can be extended to test the EMH of Islamic equity in the Middle East and North Africa region and other top Islamic indexes in the world. Originality/value This study is a new addition to the existing literature of equity investment and price forecasting by comparing and investigating the market efficiency of two interrelated US SRI and SCI.

scholarly journals The Effect of The Match Results on Bali United’s Stock Price Movements

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Agung Novianto Margarena ◽  
Arian Agung Prasetiyawan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Football Club ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Stock Price Movements

This study was conducted due to differences in the study results inseveral countries related to the effect of the match results on stockmovements. Dimic et. al (2019) stated the match results effect themovement of stock prices, while Mishra & Smyth (2010) stated thevice versa. Then, Floros (2014) put forward different results throughthe study of four clubs in four European countries. Thus, this studyreexamines the effect of the match results on the stock pricemovement of Bali United. Moreover, Bali United is the first SoutheastAsian football club to be listed on the stock market. This study uses aquantitative method with a sample of 31 Bali United’s matches afterlisted on the stock market. The data were analyzed using simple linearregression with SPSS 21 with either won, drawn or lost match resultsrepresented by goal margins. The stock price movements arerepresented by stock prices after the results of the match. It was foundthat the results of the match had a positive effect on the stockmovement of Bali United

scholarly journals Efficient Market Hypotheses Controversy and Nigerian Stock Exchange Relations

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
General Meeting ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Price Series

This study; Nigerian Stock Exchange and Efficient Market Hypothesis was done using All Share Index (ASI) with daily data from January 02, 2014 to May 20, 2019 (1333 observations) and annual data from 1985 to 2018 (34 observations) collected from the Nigeria Stock Market fact books. The study employed three analytical methods namely the unit root test, GARCH Model and the Autocorrelation cum patial autocorrelation method for the assessment of weak form hypothesis on the daily and annual all share index in the Nigerian Stock market. The results of these evaluations indicated a significant relationship between the price series and their lagged values implying that stock price series do not follow a random walk process in Nigerian stock market. Thus, affirming that the Nigeria Stock Exchange is not efficient in weak form. In the light of this, the researchers recommend that the supervisory and regulatory authorities should strengthen the Nigerian Stock Market through palliating its regulations pertaining to transparency of information management rules such as market barriers and stringent listing requirement, publication of accounts, notices of annual general meeting and the like.

scholarly journals Efficient Market Hypothesis and Market Anomalies of LQ 45 Index in Indonesia Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Helma Malini
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Market Anomalies ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Year Effect

The paper attempts to investigate the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the existence of calendar effect on Indonesia Stock Exchange Market. Initially, this paper discusses types of EMH also the literature available regarding this topic. The sample of research is twenty one securities listed in LQ 45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Market (IDX), this paper applies non parametric tests which are Run test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Mann-Whitney test  parametric test which are series correlation test, One-way Anova test and independent t-test two sample. Based on the results of the test of this paper, it can be concluded that Weak Form Efficient Market exists in LQ 45 Index of IDX while Day of the Week Effect and Month of the Year Effect are not found to exist in LQ 45 Index of IDX. In conclusion, it is observed that the effect of stock prices for the sample companies on future prices is very meager and an investor cannot reap profits by using the historical share price data as the current share prices already reflect the effect of past share prices data.

scholarly journals Testing financial market efficiency

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 351-372
Author(s):  
Islem Ahmed Boutabba
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Central Hypothesis ◽  
Excess Volatility ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
Efficiency Hypothesis

Since the birth of the financial literature until the 1970s, the efficient market hypothesis has been regarded as a central hypothesis. In the mid-1970s, there were theoretical and empirical evidence stating that the EMH seems untouchable. However, recently there has been an emergence of arguments doubting the EMH. The EMH implicitly indicates that stock prices can follow a random walk. Currently, financial theory has shown that stock prices do not follow a random walk.In this regard, our empirical study rejected the hypothesis of a random walk for 27 indices out of 28 studied. We confirm that the studied indices time series do not follow a random walk, and therefore we reject the financial markets efficiency hypothesis in its weak form. This result corroborates those of Fama and French (1992.993), DeBondt and Thaler (1985), Lo and MacKinlay (1991), Jagadeesh and Titman (1993) and Shleifer and Vishny (1997). Therefore, financial markets efficiency hypothesis in its weak form is also rejected. This result is logical given the limited capacity of the classical theory in explaining abnormal returns such as bubbles, crashes and excess volatility

TESTING FOR THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS IN STOCK PRICES: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE FROM NONLINEAR HETEROGENEOUS PANELS

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 943-958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chien-Chiang Lee ◽  
Ching-Chuan Tsong ◽  
Cheng-Feng Lee
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Order Zero ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
International Data

Using international data, this paper explores whether the efficient market hypothesis for real stock prices is supported for different panels. The stationarity of a real stock price has important implications for modeling and forecasting financial activities. On a global scale, we implement the recently developed nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test, which allows us to account for possible nonlinearity and cross-section dependence and to identify how many and which countries of the panel contain a unit root. The primary conclusion is that the stationarity of real stock prices varies between regions and levels of economic development. Overall, our empirical results illustrate that real stock prices in these countries are a mixture of stationary (integrated of order zero) and nonstationary (integrated of order one) processes.

THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS REVISITED: EVIDENCE FROM THE FIVE SMALL OPEN ASEAN STOCK MARKETS

2012 ◽  
Vol 57 (03) ◽  
pp. 1250021 ◽  
Author(s):  
QAISER MUNIR ◽  
KOK SOOK CHING ◽  
FUMITAKA FUROUKA ◽  
KASIM MANSUR
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Linear Series ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Unit Root Process

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that returns of a stock market are unpredictable from historical price changes, is satisfied when stock prices are characterized by a random walk (unit root) process. A finding of unit root implies that stock returns cannot be predicted. This paper investigates the stock prices behavior of five ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries i.e., Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, for the period from 1990:1 to 2009:1 using a two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) approach which allows testing nonlinearity and non-stationarity simultaneously. Among the main findings, our results indicate that stock prices of Malaysia and Thailand are a non-linear series and are characterized by a unit root process, consistent with the EMH. Furthermore, we find that stock prices of Indonesia, Philippines and Singapore follow a non-linear series, however, stock price indices are stationary processes that are inconsistent with the EMH.

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