Time-variant system reliability analysis method for a small failure probability problem

2021 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 107261
Author(s):  
Hua-Ming Qian ◽  
Yan-Feng Li ◽  
Hong-Zhong Huang
2015 ◽  
Vol 777 ◽  
pp. 130-134
Author(s):  
Zhen Feng ◽  
Na Wang ◽  
Yong Da

Based on bearing capacity and settlement control design methods for composite foundation improved by combined piles,as well as the system reliability analysis theory,the system of reliability analysis for composite foundation can be divided into three sub-systems;that are bearing capacity sub-system,settlement sub-system and differential settlement sub-system.The system probability of failure for composite foundation call be obtained by calculating that of three sub-systems respectively.It provides a method of system reliability analysis for composite foundations improved by combined piles.


Author(s):  
Huahan Liu ◽  
Wei Jiang

The relationship between the reliability probabilities of the component and the system is hard to get. If this relationship can be obtained easily, the reliability of the system can be calculated by using the reliability structures of the components. The common method to express this relationship is using the linear correlation index, which only shows the linear correlation between the components failure rather than the relationship between high nonlinear functions. In order to describe this relationship accurately and calculate the system reliability using the component reliability structures, a Uniform Design (UD)-Saddlepoint Approximation (SA)-based system reliability analysis method is proposed. The system reliability analysis method is decomposed to three simple steps: (1) calculating the weight coefficient which represents the contribution rate of each component to system reliability, (2) approximating Cumulant Generation Function (CGF) of each component, (3) calculating CGF of the system and approximating the system reliability with SA method. The weight coefficient of each component is derived from UD method, and a variable interval selection method is developed to decrease the required number of samples and increase the accuracy of the weight coefficients. First-Order Saddlepoint Approximation (FOSA) method or Mean-Value First-Order Saddlepoint Approximation (MVFOSA) method is used to analyze the CGF of a component performance function. Then the CGF of the system can be obtained by the weighted addition law by combining the CGFs of components performance functions with the weight coefficients. Finally, the system reliability can be approximated by SA method. Four examples are employed to demonstrate that the new method outperforms other methods for system reliability analysis in terms of efficiency and accuracy.


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