Interdisciplinary assessment of sea-level rise and climate change impacts on the lower Nile delta, Egypt

SUMMARYTime discounting – the degree to which individuals value current more than future resources – is an important component of natural resource conservation. As a response to climate change impacts in island communities, such as sea level rise, discounting the future can be a rational response due to increased stress on natural resources and uncertainty about whether future generations will have the same access to the same resources. By incorporating systematic responses of discount rates into models of resource conservation, realistic expectations of future human responses to climate change and associated resource stress may be developed. This paper illustrates the importance of time discounting through a theoretical agent-based model of resource use in island communities. A discount rate change can dramatically change projections about future migration and community-based conservation efforts. Our simulation results show that an increase in discount rates due to a credible information shock about future climate change impacts is likely to speed resource depletion. The negative impacts of climate change are therefore likely to be underestimated if changes in discount rates and emerging migration patterns are not taken into account.

Download Full-text

Climate Change, Sea Level Rise and Protecting Displaced Coastal Communities: Possible Solutions

Global Journal of Comparative Law ◽

10.1163/2211906x-00102004 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 225-263 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Tony George Puthucherril

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Coastal Zone Management ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Small Island ◽

Small Island Developing States ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Technological Support

Climate change and sea level rise are realities that are upon us and which will profoundly impact the lives and basic rights of millions of coastal residents all over the world. As the law stands both at the international and at certain national levels, the basic human rights of the climate displaced are not adequately protected. This paper identifies two possible displacement scenarios, based on the continued availability/non-availability of land in the face of sea level rise and other climate change impacts; namely, the sinking Small Island Developing States phenomeon, where land disappears and there is no surplus land to support habitation, and all other cases, where the coastal land is battered severely but it can be re-utilized through appropriate adaptation measures or even if coastal frontage land disappears there is still land available inland. On this basis, the paper proposes three possible solutions: (1) bilateral or regional treaties to facilitate resettlement of the inhabitants of sinking Small Island Developing States, (2) appropriate coastal climate change adaptation implemented via integrated coastal zone management and (3) creation of new arrangements under the international climate change regime to provide financial assistance and technological support to respond to both situations. Even though the primary focus of this paper is on coastal communities in South Asia, the lessons that it offers are relevant to other coastal contexts as well.

Download Full-text

Creating a climate changed future with the sea level rise interactive- fiction game ‘Lagos2199’

10.31223/x5x90w ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Patrick Keys ◽

Matthew Keys

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Scenario Development ◽

Climate Change Education ◽

Web Based ◽

Survey Results ◽

Discrete Change

Story-based futures serve an important role in climate change scenario development. Stories are particularly useful in exploring sea level rise possibilities, since we know many coastal areas are specifically vulnerable to accelerating rises in sea level. This discrete change in coastline is different from most other climate change impacts, and offers a clear basis for scientifically-informed, future scenarios. We demonstrate this with a creative world-building effort set in Lagos, Nigeria, in the year 2199. Further, we employ story-based scenario development, and create a learning-oriented, web-based game that allows users to experience stories in an open-ended, text-based adventure style. This collaborative process blended scientific research, story-telling, and artistic co-creation to iteratively construct the game ‘Lagos2199’. The first use-case of Lagos2199 is documented herein, with corresponding survey results from the student users. This work has three core conclusions. First, the unique reality that sea level rise will literally re-draw maps can be leveraged as an entry-point for world-building and scenario development of the future. Second, such a scenario can be blended with storytelling, art, and music to create a multi-dimensional, immersive exploration of ecological and social change. Third, this kind of game experience can serve an important pedagogical role in climate change education. Providing the next generation of citizens with fluency in both climate change impacts and how society will interact with such impacts, is critical for providing adaptive capacity over the coming decades and centuries of accelerating global change.

Download Full-text

Study on climate change impacts of sea level rise on the Saemangeum Sea Dike using the EEMD method

IABSE Congress, Christchurch 2021: Resilient technologies for sustainable infrastructure ◽

10.2749/christchurch.2021.0769 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Baeg Lee ◽

Hyun-Han Kwon

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽

Mode Decomposition ◽

Eemd Method ◽

The Impact ◽

Sea Dike

<p>The Saemangeum Sea Dike, completed in 2011 in South Korea, is the longest sea dike in the world. One of the most pressing issues of today, climate change leads to sea level rise that could increase the risk of sea dike overflow. However, what impact climate change will have on the Saemangeum Sea Dike has not been verified yet. Here, we estimate the impacts of sea level rise on the Saemangeum Sea Dike, using the Linear Regression Analysis method and the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The sea level data of the Saemangeum area of the last 30 years was analysed and the results showed that the maximum rate of sea level rise of the Saemangeum Sea Dike is at 2.51 mm/year when the EEMD method was applied. It means that the impact of sea level rise on the Saemangeum sea dike is reasonably low because the sea level rise will exceed the freeboard after 366 years, so there is currently no clear sign that it poses a problem.</p>

Download Full-text

An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) Hospitals, Wildfires Highest Priority

Prehospital and Disaster Medicine ◽

10.1017/s1049023x17006586 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 32 (5) ◽

pp. 556-562 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Sabrina A. Adelaine ◽

Mizuki Sato ◽

Yufang Jin ◽

Hilary Godwin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Los Angeles ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Los Angeles County ◽

Historical Data ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

The United States ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Ed Visits

AbstractIntroductionAlthough many studies have delineated the variety and magnitude of impacts that climate change is likely to have on health, very little is known about how well hospitals are poised to respond to these impacts.Hypothesis/ProblemThe hypothesis is that most modern hospitals in urban areas in the United States need to augment their current disaster planning to include climate-related impacts.MethodsUsing Los Angeles County (California USA) as a case study, historical data for emergency department (ED) visits and projections for extreme-heat events were used to determine how much climate change is likely to increase ED visits by mid-century for each hospital. In addition, historical data about the location of wildfires in Los Angeles County and projections for increased frequency of both wildfires and flooding related to sea-level rise were used to identify which area hospitals will have an increased risk of climate-related wildfires or flooding at mid-century.ResultsOnly a small fraction of the total number of predicted ED visits at mid-century would likely to be due to climate change. By contrast, a significant portion of hospitals in Los Angeles County are in close proximity to very high fire hazard severity zones (VHFHSZs) and would be at greater risk to wildfire impacts as a result of climate change by mid-century. One hospital in Los Angeles County was anticipated to be at greater risk due to flooding by mid-century as a result of climate-related sea-level rise.ConclusionThis analysis suggests that several Los Angeles County hospitals should focus their climate-change-related planning on building resiliency to wildfires.AdelaineSA, SatoM, JinY, GodwinH. An assessment of climate change impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) hospitals, wildfires highest priority. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):556–562.

Download Full-text

Vulnerability to Inundation and Climate Change Impacts in California: Coastal Managers' Attitudes and Perceptions

Marine Technology Society Journal ◽

10.4031/002533206787353169 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 40 (4) ◽

pp. 35-44 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

Susanne C. Moser ◽

John Tribbia

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

San Francisco ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Coastal Areas ◽

Federal Agencies ◽

Past Century ◽

Survey Results ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Coastal California has witnessed persistent sea-level rise (10-20 cm) along its southern and central open ocean coastal sections and in San Francisco Bay over the past century. This paper aims to understand the perceptions of local coastal managers in California of current inundation-related risks, the added risks from climate change, and vulnerability to the growing coastal problems. We also explore the extent to which coastal managers are beginning to think about and tackle these increasing management challenges. Survey results presented here suggest that inundation already creates critical management challenges in California, but other, non-inundation-related coastal problems also vie for managers' attention. Despite high awareness of global warming and moderately good understanding of potential impacts of climate change on coastal areas, currently pressing issues and limited staff time and resources constrain their ability to begin dealing with the growing risks from sea-level rise. The sobering conclusion is that California is inadequately preparing for the impacts of climate change on coastal areas at this time. Local government will need substantial support from state and federal agencies if the level of preparedness for climate change and other inundation-related risks is to be elevated in the future.

Download Full-text

Sea Level Rise and Climate Change Impacts in Coastal Areas: Case Studies from Greater Boston Area

Structures Congress 2014 ◽

10.1061/9780784413357.116 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Lisa Dickson ◽

Indrani Ghosh

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Case Studies ◽

Sea Level ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Coastal Areas

Download Full-text

Simulation of seawater intrusion in the Nile Delta aquifer under the conditions of climate change

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2016.157 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 47 (6) ◽

pp. 1198-1210 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Hany Abd-Elhamid ◽

Akbar Javadi ◽

Ismail Abdelaty ◽

Mohsen Sherif

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Seawater Intrusion ◽

Unsaturated Soils ◽

Nile Delta ◽

Model Verification ◽

Critical Parameters ◽

Worst Case ◽

Piezometric Head

The problem of seawater intrusion is encountered in almost all coastal aquifers. Because of its higher density, the seawater migrates inland into freshwater aquifers even without any pumping activities. Excessive pumping of groundwater would accelerate seawater intrusion. Climate change and sea level rise represent critical parameters affecting the rate and degree of seawater intrusion. In this paper, a coupled transient finite element model for simulation of fluid flow and solute transport in saturated and unsaturated soils (2D-FEST) is employed to study the seawater intrusion in the Nile Delta aquifer. The results of the current model are compared to results of SEAWAT for model verification. The (2D-FEST) model is used to investigate seawater intrusion considering the impacts of climate change. Three scenarios are studied: (a) rise in sea level, (b) decline of the piezometric head at the land side due to excessive pumping, and (c) combination of sea level rise and decline of the piezometric head. The results show that the rise in the sea level has a significant effect on the position of the transition zone. The third scenario represents the worst case under which the groundwater quality would deteriorate in large areas of the Nile Delta aquifer.

Download Full-text