Prevalence of illicit drug consumption in a population of Hanoi: an estimation using wastewater-based epidemiology

We study the NERA model that describes the dynamic evolution of illicit drug usage in a population. The model consists of nonusers (N) and three categories of drug users: the experimental (E) category, the recreational (R) category and the addict (A) category. Two epidemic threshold term known as the reproduction numbers, R0 and μ are defined and derived. Sensitivity analysis of R0 on the parameters are performed in order to determine their relative importance to illicit drug prevalence. The local and global stability of the equilibrium states are also analysed. We also prove that a transcritical bifurcation occurs at R0 = 1. It is shown that an effective campaign of prevention can help to fight against the prevalence of illicit drug consumption. We demonstrate persistence when R0 > 1 and conditions for the extinction of drug consumption are also established. Numerical simulations are performed to verify our model. Our results show that the NERA model can assist policy makers in targeting prevention for maximum effectiveness and can be used to adopt evidence-based policies to better monitor and quantify drug use trends.

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Tobacco, alcohol and illicit drugs during pregnancy and risk of neuroblastoma: systematic review

Archives of Disease in Childhood - Fetal and Neonatal Edition ◽

10.1136/archdischild-2017-313615 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 103 (5) ◽

pp. F467-F473 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Eloise Müller-Schulte ◽

Gerhard Kurlemann ◽

Anja Harder

Keyword(s):

Illicit Drugs ◽

Illicit Drug ◽

Data Extraction ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Risk Of Bias ◽

Drug Consumption ◽

Case Control Studies ◽

Bias Analysis ◽

Random Effects Models ◽

Registration Number

ObjectiveTo determine whether prenatal and perinatal maternal consumption of alcohol, tobacco and/or illicit drugs is associated with risk of neuroblastoma.Data sourcesMedline and Embase (both from inception to February 2017), and reference lists of included studies.Study selectionTo be eligible, a study had to be an original report including data on intake of alcohol, tobacco smoking and/or consumption of illicit drugs during pregnancy and risk of neuroblastoma in the child.Data extractionFrom eligible studies, data study characteristics as well as effect measures and confounders were extracted. We assessed unadjusted and confounder-adjusted estimates, performed risk of bias analysis, constructed random-effects models and assessed heterogeneity.ResultsWe identified 14 case–control studies (1987–2016) involving a total of 3114 children with neuroblastoma. Meta-analysis of unadjusted estimates showed an association between alcohol (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.49), tobacco (OR 1.22; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.44) and illicit drug consumption during pregnancy and risk of neuroblastoma during childhood, with illicit drug consumption showing the strongest association (OR 3.26; 95% CI 1.36 to 7.86). However, adjusted estimates were highly heterogeneous.LimitationsAll studies were at high risk of bias.ConclusionsSmoking, alcohol or illicit drugs during pregnancy might play a role in the development of neuroblastoma. However, well-designed studies are needed to assess whether these exposures are causal and whether time period during pregnancy, dose or co-consumption of substances is critical.Trial registration numberRegistration number CRD42016036165.

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