Local early warning systems for drought – Could they add value to nationally disseminated seasonal climate forecasts?

AbstractAlthough there have been enormous demands and efforts to develop an early warning system for malaria, no sustainable system has remained. Well-organized malaria surveillance and high-quality climate forecasts are required to sustain a malaria early warning system in conjunction with an effective malaria prediction model. We aimed to develop a weather-based malaria prediction model using a weekly time-series data including temperature, precipitation, and malaria cases from 1998 to 2015 in Vhembe, Limpopo, South Africa and apply it to seasonal climate forecasts. The malaria prediction model performed well for short-term predictions (correlation coefficient, r > 0.8 for 1- and 2-week ahead forecasts). The prediction accuracy decreased as the lead time increased but retained fairly good performance (r > 0.7) up to the 16-week ahead prediction. The demonstration of the malaria prediction process based on the seasonal climate forecasts showed the short-term predictions coincided closely with the observed malaria cases. The weather-based malaria prediction model we developed could be applicable in practice together with skillful seasonal climate forecasts and existing malaria surveillance data. Establishing an automated operating system based on real-time data inputs will be beneficial for the malaria early warning system, and can be an instructive example for other malaria-endemic areas.

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Malaria early warning in Kenya and seasonal climate forecasts

The Lancet ◽

10.1016/s0140-6736(03)14135-9 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 362 (9383) ◽

pp. 580 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Madeleine Thomson ◽

Matayo Indeje ◽

Stephen Connor ◽

Maxx Dilley ◽

Neil Ward

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Seasonal Climate ◽

Climate Forecasts ◽

Seasonal Climate Forecasts

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The CARE Telematics Network for the Surveillance of Influenza in Europe

Methods of Information in Medicine ◽

10.1055/s-0038-1634617 ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 34 (05) ◽

pp. 518-522 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

M. Bensadon ◽

A. Strauss ◽

R. Snacken

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Surveillance Networks ◽

Spanish Flu ◽

The 1950S ◽

National Networks ◽

First Time

Abstract:Since the 1950s, national networks for the surveillance of influenza have been progressively implemented in several countries. New epidemiological arguments have triggered changes in order to increase the sensitivity of existent early warning systems and to strengthen the communications between European networks. The WHO project CARE Telematics, which collects clinical and virological data of nine national networks and sends useful information to public health administrations, is presented. From the results of the 1993-94 season, the benefits of the system are discussed. Though other telematics networks in this field already exist, it is the first time that virological data, absolutely essential for characterizing the type of an outbreak, are timely available by other countries. This argument will be decisive in case of occurrence of a new strain of virus (shift), such as the Spanish flu in 1918. Priorities are now to include other existing European surveillance networks.

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