The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions

1998 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Lux
Extremes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maarten R. C. van Oordt ◽  
Philip A. Stork ◽  
Casper G. de Vries

AbstractWe show how fat tails in agricultural commodity returns arise endogenously from productivity shocks in a standard macroeconomic model. Using nearly ninety years of data, we show that the eight agricultural commodities in our sample exhibit fat-tailed return distributions. Statistical tests confirm the heavy-tailedness of price spikes for agricultural commodities. We apply extreme value theory to estimate the size and likelihood of price spikes in agricultural commodities. Back-testing verifies the validity of our risk assessment methodology.


2014 ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Makasheva

The article considers the ways to overcome the methodological gap between the analysis of economic cycles and the pure economic theory as suggested by the Western economists in the 1920s and 1930s. In this context, N. D. Kondratiev’s project of economic dynamics is analyzed, which implied a radically different vision of the opportunities to solve this problem.


2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 263-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayham Dalal

Camps are temporal spaces where refugees are provided with humanitarian aid until durable solutions are made possible. During this period of ‘endless waiting’, these camps are planned to be economically self-contained. However, through time, refugee camps tend to urbanise: their initial empty spaces transform into vibrant markets, habitats and social spaces. In response to this ‘unexpected’ - and sometimes ‘unwanted’ - process, the economically self-contained system of camps breaks. This paper looks into the emerging socio-economic dynamics in Zaatari camp in Jordan, on the light of its urbanisation process and the Jordanian economy. It first explains the how humanitarian aid is provided, and then shows how and why, refugees use it to diversify the economy of the camp. The findings of this paper are then articulated on the existing policies to reduce the financial aid such as ‘self-reliance’ and ‘development’.


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