Temperature, Labor Reallocation, and Industrial Production: Evidence from India

To what degree can labor reallocation mitigate the economic consequences of weather-driven agricultural productivity shocks? I estimate that temperature-driven reductions in the demand for agricultural labor in India are associated with increases in nonagricultural employment. This suggests that the ability of nonagricultural sectors to absorb workers may play a key role in attenuating the economic consequences of agricultural productivity shocks. Exploiting firm-level variation in the propensity to absorb workers, I estimate relative expansions in manufacturing output in more flexible labor markets. Estimates suggest that, in the absence of labor reallocation, local economic losses could be up to 69 percent higher. (JEL J23, J43, L60, O13, O14, Q54, Q56)

Macroeconomics Meets regional science: How national economic activity is Related to regional economic activity

Macroeconomics and regional science have developed as separate disciplines. However, the fact that the gross domestic product is the sum of gross regional products suggests that the two disciplines are related. The present study considers the implications of regional science and economic geography for macroeconomics. Specifically, a spatial econometric model for Israel is simulated to explore the implications of regional productivity and amenity shocks for gross regional products and the gross domestic product. We show that the effects of productivity shocks on the gross domestic product depend on where they occur and may even be negative. These results question estimates of the effect of productivity shocks in macroeconomic models in terms of spatial aggregation bias. They also provide empirical evidence rejecting the spatial granularity hypothesis regarding the secular relation between macroeconomic economic activity and regional economic activity. The study concludes with speculations about the implications of macroeconomics for regional science.

Dynamic wage bargaining and labour market fluctuations: the role of productivity shocks

In this paper, we explore the way in which different bargaining settings affect labour market fluctuations by means of an analytical apparatus that has never been used for this purpose. Specifically, modelling wage negotiations as a problem of stochastic optimal control, we analyze how productivity disturbances shape the dynamics of output, employment, and wages by focusing on the way in which firms’ technology and workers’ preferences interact with the adjustment rules of employment underlying the bargaining process. With a quadratic production function and risk averse workers, we show that wage negotiation outcomes whose employment adjustments go in the direction of the labour demand of the firms match the cyclical behaviour of the involved variables but fail to replicate the observed wage rigidity. By contrast, we show that wage bargaining outcomes whose employment adjustments target the contract curve of two negotiating parties are also able to deliver a strong degree of wage stickiness.

Sectoral Productivity Growth, COVID-19 Shocks, and Infrastructure

This paper examines sectoral productivity shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, their aggregate impact, and the possible compensatory effects of improving productivity in infrastructure-related sectors. We employ the KLEMS annual dataset for a group of OECD and Latin America and the Caribbean countries, complemented with high-frequency data for 2020. First, we estimate a panel vector autoregression of growth rates in sector level labor productivity to specify the nature and size of sectoral shocks using the historical data. We then run impulse-response simulations of one standard deviation shocks in the sectors that were most affected by COVID 19. We estimate that the pandemic cut economy-wide labor productivity by 4.9 percent in Latin America, and by 3.5 percent for the entire sample. Finally, by modeling the long-run relationship between productivity shocks in the sectors most affected by COVID 19, we find that large productivity improvements in infrastructure--equivalent to at least three times the historical rates of productivity gains--may be needed to fully compensate for the negative productivity losses traceable to COVID 19.

Nonlinear Unemployment Effects of the Inflation Tax

We argue that long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent effects on unemployment, output, and welfare. Using panel data from the OECD, we document three correlations. First, there is a positive long-run relationship between anticipated inflation and unemployment. Second, there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and unemployment volatility. Third, the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is not only positive, but also stronger when unemployment is higher. We show that these correlations arise in a standard monetary search model with two shocks – productivity and monetary – and frictions in labor and goods markets. Inflation lowers the surplus from a worker-firm match, in turn making it sensitive to productivity shocks or to further increases in inflation. We calibrate the model to match the U.S. postwar labor market and monetary data, and show that it is consistent with observed cross-country correlations. The model implies that the welfare cost of inflation is nonlinear in the level of inflation and is amplified by the presence of aggregate shocks.

The Trade-Comovement Puzzle

Standard international transmission mechanism of productivity shocks predicts a weak endogenous linkage between trade and business cycle synchronization: a problem known as the trade-comovement puzzle. We provide the foundational analysis of the puzzle, pointing to three natural candidate resolutions: (i) financial market frictions, (ii) Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman preferences, and (iii) dynamic trade elasticity that is low in the short run but high in the long run. We show the effects of each of these candidate resolutions analytically and evaluate them quantitatively. We find that while (i) and (ii) fall short of the data, (iii) goes a long way toward resolving the puzzle. (JEL E32, F14, F44)

The Nature of Money in a Convertible Currency World

In a world where the means of exchange is convertible into the numeraire consumption good at a fixed rate, no one wants to hold money over time – and due to convertibility there is no means by which the Friedman rule can generate deflation. This is the environment we study in this paper in order to demonstrate that there is still a way to reach the first-best: institutionalize the naked shorting of the unit of account, or in other words establish a banking system. To motivate the benefits of a banking system, the environment has real productivity shocks that are constantly changing the optimal level of economic activity, so the optimal quantity of money is inherently stochastic. Efficiency in such an environment requires the capacity to expand the money supply on an “as needed” basis. We show how a debt-based payments system that relies on banks to certify the individual debtors’ IOUs addresses the monetary problem. This model explains (i) central bank monetary policy as a means of stabilizing the banking system and (ii) usury laws as means of promoting equilibria that favor non-banks over those that favor banks. Furthermore, by modeling a commercial bank-based monetary system as an efficient solution to a payments problem this paper develops a theoretic framework that may be used to evaluate central bank digital currency proposals.