Graded forecasting using an array of bipolar predictions: application of probabilistic neural networks to a stock market index

1998 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven H Kim ◽  
Se Hak Chun
1994 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darmadi Komo ◽  
Chein-I Chang ◽  
Hanseok Ko

Author(s):  
WEI HUANG ◽  
KIN KEUNG LAI ◽  
YOSHITERU NAKAMORI ◽  
SHOUYANG WANG ◽  
LEAN YU

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely applied to finance and economic forecasting as a powerful modeling technique. By reviewing the related literature, we discuss the input variables, type of neural network models, performance comparisons for the prediction of foreign exchange rates, stock market index and economic growth. Economic fundamentals are important in driving exchange rates, stock market index price and economic growth. Most neural network inputs for exchange rate prediction are univariate, while those for stock market index prices and economic growth predictions are multivariate in most cases. There are mixed comparison results of forecasting performance between neural networks and other models. The reasons may be the difference of data, forecasting horizons, types of neural network models and so on. Prediction performance of neural networks can be improved by being integrated with other technologies. Nonlinear combining forecasting by neural networks also provides encouraging results.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ainhoa Fernández-Pérez ◽  
María de las Nieves López-García ◽  
José Pedro Ramos Requena

In this paper we present a non-conventional statistical arbitrage technique based in varying the number of standard deviations used to carry the trading strategy. We will show how values of 1 and 1,2 in the standard deviation provide better results that the classic strategy of Gatev et al (2006). An empirical application is performance using data of the FST100 index during the period 2010 to June 2019.


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