ADAPTIVE ESTIMATION OF ERROR CORRECTION MODELS

This paper considers adaptive maximum likelihood estimation of reduced rank vector error correction models. It is shown that such models can be asymptotically efficiently estimated even in the absence of knowledge of the shape of the density function of the innovation sequence, provided that this density is symmetric. The construction of the estimator, involving the nonparametric kernel estimation of the unknown density using the residuals of a consistent preliminary estimator, is described, and its asymptotic distribution is derived. Asymptotic efficiency gains over the Gaussian pseudo–maximum likelihood estimator are evaluated for elliptically symmetric innovations.