Disputas comerciais entre países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento no Órgão de Solução de Controvérsias da Organização Mundial do Comércio

O Órgão de Solução de Controvérsias (OSC) da Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC) tem tido papel relevante no equilíbrio do comércio global, devido à sua finalidade de contribuir para a fluidez do comércio internacional, dentro de um contexto caracterizado pela desigualdade econômica e social dos países, que incentiva as disputas comerciais. O objetivo do artigo é verificar se as relações de poder existentes entre os países desenvolvidos, em desenvolvimento e de menor desenvolvimento, no âmbito da organização, influenciaram o comércio bilateral entre os países que participaram de um contencioso comercial no período 2005-2017. A pesquisa fez uso do método Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML), com dados de 124 países membros da OMC, para estimar uma equação gravitacional. Os resultados mostram que, em meio a uma realidade de interdependência entre os países, a assimetria das relações faz com que os países que possuem maior poder econômico tenham influência para aumentar seus benefícios nas relações comerciais entre as partes.

Evaluating the effects of language on international trade in MENA countries: A gravity-model approach

Prior studies have investigated the role of economic and noneconomic variables on international trade. A major factor, which has been studied less, is the language used in transactions and negotiations. We explore the effects of language connectedness and the Arabic language on international trade in thirteen countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We used a panel of bilateral data and gravity model for the countries of the region over the 2000 to 2018 period. Our analytic technique was the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimation method. The empirical outcomes indicate that speaking Arabic leads to an increase in export, that is, Arab nations prefer to export to the countries whose people speak their language. In addition, the language connectedness index, which depends on the extent to which the country's languages are spoken outside the country, is positively associated with the levels of exports and imports. Results further show that the GDP, population of the destination country, and political co-stability have significant positive impacts on the bilateral exports. Additionally, GDP, the population of the source country, political co-stability, and a common border have had significant positive influences on bilateral imports. The major contribution of this research is that the Arabic language has a significant and positive impact on trade among MENA countries.

Impacts of Environmental Agreements on Bilateral Trade of Climate Industry

We investigated the effect of agreements related to climate change on bilateral trade, using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator on a large dataset that requires computing high-dimensional fixed effects. This study develops the concordance between commodities based on harmonized systems (HS) and technologies defined by both international and cooperative patent classifications (IPC/CPC). Using the OECD ENV-TECH classification, covering 169 exporting countries and 179 importing countries worldwide from 1991 to 2019, we determined the relationship between HS commodities and IPC/CPC climate change technologies. The main findings show that, first, the Kyoto Protocol has increased international bilateral trade in the climate change industry, while the Montreal Protocol has led to the opposite effect. In addition, the impact of environmental stringency on international bilateral trade in climate-related industries was negative and significant, refuting the Porter Hypothesis. This result was consistent within the trade between the convention countries. Therefore, national and industrial perspectives are relative, and voluntary climate mitigation methods should be applied, considering the areas where carbon reduction is relatively difficult. In other words, the conventions and policies must shift to a global paradigm in environmental protection and a more inclusive approach, with recognition of diversity in governance types.

India–European Union Trade Integration: An Analysis of Current and Future Trajectories

In a dynamic global environment of increased economic interdependence, nations are more than ever seeking to remove barriers to trade, despite growing trends of protectionism. In this context, India and the EU-27 have initiated talks for the establishment of a Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) in an attempt to bring their economies together. However, after 16 rounds of negotiations, the failure to conclude this agreement has raised questions regarding the benefits of the agreement to India. This study attempts to examine the current trade scenario and the effects of the proposed regional trade agreement by estimating a structural gravity model. This study employs the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator for analysing the trade-creation and trade-diversion effects of the BTIA to overcome the shortcomings of ordinary least square (OLS) estimators. For the empirical analysis, the merchandise export data from the Gravity database has been taken for a period of 19 years from 2001 to 2019. The results indicate that the BTIA could lead to trade creation and trade diversion, highlighting the need for a re-evaluation of India’s trade policy. JEL Classification: F10, F13, F14, F15, O24

Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives

This study analyzes the determinants of both total migration and asylum migration to Germany. For the analysis, a comprehensive empirical model is set up that includes climate change, economic opportunities, such as per capita income differentials, links to Germany, home country characteristics (population growth, poverty, consumer confidence, unemployment), the political and institutional situation in the sending countries (measured by internal and external conflict, ethnic and religious tensions, government stability, law and order, military in politics), and a control for migration opportunities to alternative destinations. Panel data techniques (Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood) for the estimation of the parameters of interest are employed using a panel of 115 (134) origin countries for asylum migration (total migration) over the period of 1996–2017 or 2001–2017, depending on data availability. The analysis reveals that political, socioeconomic, and economic factors determine both total migration and asylum migration. Economic factors are also determinants of asylum applications, as asylum seekers most often come for several reasons. Poverty plays a distinct role in total migration and asylum migration. An alleviation of poverty in origin countries is associated with less overall migration to Germany but with more asylum migration. Increases in average temperature also impact asylum migration in the expected direction, thus, increasing forced migration. The most interesting findings are revealed when considering country groupings (main migration countries, major asylum countries, countries whose asylum applicants enjoy high, intermediate, or low recognition rates).

The Gravity of Distance: Evidence from a Trade Embargo

On June 5, 2017, an airspace blockade was imposed on the State of Qatar by four of its neighbors: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. We study the exogenous increase in air transportation costs with non-blockading countries to examine the effect of increased travel distance on bilateral trade. Based on a gravity model estimated with a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood, we find a distance elasticity of trade between -0.3 and -0.5. Our findings revise downwards cross-sectional estimates of the distance elasticity of trade and confirm more recent estimates exploiting similar time-varying shocks to distance.

The Impact of Trade Cost on Readymade Garment Export: The Case of Bangladesh

The main purpose of this study is to understand whether the trade cost influences the export of Readymade Garment (RMG) export of Bangladesh. Theoretically, with an increase in the volume of exported goods, the costs will also increase. Therefore, this study is to examine the impact of trade costs on the readymade garment export performance of Bangladesh for the period of 2007 -2015. This study applied two types of panel data models: pooled OLS model and the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation procedure have been employed in the estimation. The main contribution of the paper compared to other studies on Bangladesh lies in its approach in addressing the impact of trade costs on exports and using PPML gravity equation estimation. The results of the study indicate that trade costs have a significant negative impact on exports of Bangladesh. The major findings show that trade cost has a negative and significant impact on Bangladesh's bilateral RMG export performance. This implies that the Bangladeshi government should work to reduce domestic trade costs in order to boost efficiency and sustainably promote RMG export.

Arab-German Trade and Institutions: The Effect of Good Governance on Arab Exports to Germany

Does good governance matter for exporting to the highly competitive markets of developed countries, especially those committed to a developmental mission centered on promoting good governance? This paper is investigating this research question. The focus of the analysis is the case study of Arab exports to the German economy, where a comparatively poor performance in comparison to that of other regions of the world is witnessed, despite geographical proximity and preferential trade agreements. Using statistical data and the literature on the subject, the paper engages in a discussion on German trade flows from Arab countries and whether governance indicators provide a good explanatory framework. The research question is then investigated empirically by running several regressions using the two-stage least-squares and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood models. Different indicators of German exports are used as dependent variables while the independent variables are various governance indicators together with the control variables suggested by the gravity model. The obtained empirical results suggest that good governance generally boosts Arab exports to Germany and relatively more than it does for non-Arab exporters to Germany. This is especially true for governance indicators that directly affect exporting activities, such as regulatory quality and government effectiveness. For some indicators that indirectly affect exporting, however, the results are mixed for both Arab and non-Arab countries, especially for the textile industry. This sheds doubts on Germany’s developmental commitment to fostering good governance principles.

China’s bilateral trade in Africa: is institutional structure a determinant?

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the institutional structures and other predictors that determine bilateral trade between Africa and China from 1995 to 2017. Design/methodology/approach In line with the gravity model of trade, institutional, geographical and socio-economic determinants of China’s bilateral trade with 18 African oil/minerals exporting countries are examined by deploying Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood and dynamic bias-corrected least squares dummy variable econometric techniques. Findings The results indicate that China’s oil/minerals imports from Africa are higher than imports of manufacturing and agricultural goods, and institutional structures indicate that a weak politically stable region with less control of corruption has a discernible effect on trade. Research limitations/implications Further insight can be gained if the type of manufactured goods being exported to China is examined; this is necessary given that China crowds out Africa’s manufactured goods. Therefore, this study recommends the need for Africa to continually strengthen its institutional structures to stimulate trade from other regions. Originality/value This study examines the quality of the institutional structures (political stability and corruption) in African oil/minerals exporting countries, considering that China has been alleged for capitalising on Africa’s weak institutional structures to trade with the resource-endowed region. For the first time, the UN COMTRADE HS product-country-partner-year trade data is used to examine on bilateral sector trade China–Africa links rather than proxies used in the studies of Biggeri and Sanfilippo (2009), De Grauwe et al. (2012) and Foad (2011) that did not capture the real trade value.

CLT for single functional index quantile regression under dependence structure

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic properties of a nonparametric conditional quantile estimation in the single functional index model for dependent functional data and censored at random responses are observed. First of all, we establish asymptotic properties for a conditional distribution estimator from which we derive an central limit theorem (CLT) of the conditional quantile estimator. Simulation study is also presented to illustrate the validity and finite sample performance of the considered estimator. Finally, the estimation of the functional index via the pseudo-maximum likelihood method is discussed, but not tackled.