A model-based design of a vaccination strategy against rubella in a non-immunized community of São Paulo State, Brazil

SUMMARYA mixed vaccination strategy against rubella is proposed. We describe how the vaccination strategy was designed with the help of mathematical techniques. The strategy was designed for application in a non-immunized community of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, and was implemented by local health authorities in 1992. This strategy comprises a pulse vaccination campaign, covering the age interval between 1 and 10 years, followed by the introduction of the vaccine in the immunization calendar at 15 months of age. The expected impact of the proposed strategy is discussed.

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Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply

Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling ◽

10.1186/s12976-021-00143-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Marcos Amaku ◽

Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽

Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽

Raymundo Soares Azevedo ◽

Eduardo Massad

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Vaccination Campaign ◽

Vaccination Rate ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

The State ◽

São Paulo ◽

Health Authorities ◽

The World ◽

The Moment ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background At the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far. Methods We propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths due to the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations. Results The model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths will occur by the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithmic fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole. Conclusions Our model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

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Keeping your friends close: coordination between state attorneys and health authorities in São Paulo State

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3855574 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Maria Clara Morgulis ◽

Natalia Pires de Vasconcelos

Keyword(s):

Sao Paulo ◽

São Paulo ◽

Paulo State ◽

Health Authorities ◽

São Paulo State

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Outbreaks of Healthcare-Associated Infections in Sao Paulo State, Brazil: Results From a Statewide Monitoring System

Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology ◽

10.1017/ice.2020.947 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 41 (S1) ◽

pp. s338-s338

Author(s):

Heloisa de Jesus Marçal ◽

Geraldine Madalosso ◽

Denise Assis ◽

Maria Clara Padoveze

Keyword(s):

Health Department ◽

Multidrug Resistant ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

Healthcare Associated Infections ◽

São Paulo ◽

State Health ◽

Paulo State ◽

Health Authorities ◽

São Paulo State ◽

Healthcare Associated

Background: Outbreaks of healthcare-associated infections (HAI) are relevant causes of morbidity and mortality. Healthcare-authorities should monitor them to allow prompt interventions, identify tendencies along the time, and develop large scale strategies to avoid new cases and clusters. According to the Brazilian legislation, any outbreak should be reported to health authorities. Sao Paulo State Health Department (Brazil) has a system in place since 2011 to monitor HAI outbreaks. This study aims at describing the 3.5 last year’s results of surveillance system for monitoring HAI outbreaks. Methods:Study design: Quantitative descriptive study. Source of information: Database from HAI outbreak reports, Division of Hospital Infection at Sao Paulo State Health Department. Reports were filled out online by professionals from healthcare settings or regional health authorities according to predefined criteria. Interventions were put in place by the health authorities based on the analysis of each situation in a timely manner. Variables analyzed: Number of reports, local, infection site, type of care unit, causative microorganisms, number of cases, and number of deaths. Results: The number of reports have been stable for 3 years: 2016 (n = 34, 34.7%), 2017 (n = 28, 28.6%), 2018 (n = 25, 25.5%) and the first semester of 2019 (n = 11, 11.2%). These reports encompassed 712 confirmed cases and 123 deaths. The reports were mainly about infection outbreaks; 6 reports were about colonization of multidrug-resistant microorganisms. The bloodstream was the most frequent infection site in the HAI outbreak reports (n = 37, 37.7%), followed by respiratory tract (n = 25, 25.5%), urinary tract (n = 10, 10.2%), and surgical wound (n = 9, 9.2%). HAI outbreaks happened more frequently in intensive care units, including neonatal, pediatric, and adult ICUs (n = 38, 38.8%), followed by clinical and general wards (n = 20, 20.4%), hemodialysis (n = 6, 6.1%), and surgical wards (n = 5, 5.1%). Among reported outbreaks, 62.2% occurred in the capital and the metropolitan region of São Paulo. Microorganisms causing the HAI outbreaks reports were mainly carbapenem resistant, both Klebsiella pneumoniae (n = 28, 28.5%) and Acinetobacter baumannii (n = 12, 12.2%), but carbapenem-susceptible Pseudomonas aeruginosa (n = 7, 7.1%) was also reported. Conclusions: HAI outbreaks reported to health authorities in Sao Paulo may represent only a minute percentage of the total outbreaks, most of which are still not being reported, despite the normative. However, the available data emphasize the importance of developing strategies for intensive care units and hemodialysis units that focus on reducing bloodstream infections caused by multidrug-resistant gram-negative organisms.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

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Modelling the Impact of Delaying Vaccination Against SARS-CoV-2 Assuming Unlimited Vaccines Supply

10.21203/rs.3.rs-605245/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Eduardo Massad ◽

Marcos Amaku ◽

Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽

Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽

Raymundo Soares Azevedo

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Vaccination Campaign ◽

Vaccination Rate ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

The State ◽

São Paulo ◽

Health Authorities ◽

The World ◽

The Moment ◽

The Impact

Abstract BackgroundAt the moment we have more than 109 million cases and 2.4 million deaths around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far.MethodsWe propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus induces disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths by the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations.ResultsThe model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths until the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, that for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithm fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole.ConclusionsOur model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

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Modelling the Impact of Delaying Vaccination Against SARS-CoV-2 Assuming Unlimited Vaccines Supply

10.1101/2021.02.22.21252189 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Marcos Amaku ◽

Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽

Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽

Raymundo Soares Azevedo ◽

Eduardo Massad

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Vaccination Campaign ◽

Vaccination Rate ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

The State ◽

São Paulo ◽

Health Authorities ◽

The World ◽

The Moment ◽

The Impact

AbstractBackgroundAt the moment we have more than 109 million cases and 2.4 million deaths around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far.MethodsWe propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against COVID-19 on the number of cases and deaths by the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations.ResultsThe model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths until the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, that for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithm fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole.ConclusionsOur model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

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